E.N.S.O. Discussion

[summer blizzard]

16DEC2020 - Nino3: -0.8, Nino 3.4: -0.9, Nino4: -0.7

23DEC2020 - Nino3: -0.7, Nino 3.4: -0.9, Nino4: -0.8

December ONI is likely to have come in lower (find out tomorrow) than November.

[Hotspur62]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

16DEC2020 - Nino3: -0.8, Nino 3.4: -0.9, Nino4: -0.7

23DEC2020 - Nino3: -0.7, Nino 3.4: -0.9, Nino4: -0.8

December ONI is likely to have come in lower (find out tomorrow) than November.

Interesting that La Niña never got as strong as was forecast by a lot of models in October when it looked like Nino 3.4 was due to be about -1.5.It was thought that this would scupper any chances of a cold winter relative to average for Uk and it was hoped that this figure would be lower so as to assist colder spells for the uk.Just as an example this part of Kent has had well below average temps since 24th December and this will continue at least till next friday(that will be 16 consecutive days all without one flake of snow so far ).I know there are many other factors but going forward maybe it gives possible further evidence that weak la nina’s may aid in chances of a colder than average first half of winter for Uk.My knowledge is limited on this subject so just an observation as much as anything and I could be talking cobblers!

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Hotspur62 said:

Interesting that La Niña never got as strong as was forecast by a lot of models in October when it looked like Nino 3.4 was due to be about -1.5.It was thought that this would scupper any chances of a cold winter relative to average for Uk and it was hoped that this figure would be lower so as to assist colder spells for the uk.Just as an example this part of Kent has had well below average temps since 24th December and this will continue at least till next friday(that will be 16 consecutive days all without one flake of snow so far ).I know there are many other factors but going forward maybe it gives possible further evidence that weak la nina’s may aid in chances of a colder than average first half of winter for Uk.My knowledge is limited on this subject so just an observation as much as anything and I could be talking cobblers!

October itself did peak at -1.4, what they've underestimated was the lack of a second wind after the rise in AAM during November.

Though it is worth saying that the SOI was the 5th highest on record in December and strongest since 2011.

[Hotspur62]

Thank you SB.that’s what I was alluding to but didn’t explain myself very well (I.e. the La Niña remaining a moderate strong event through November and December when in actual fact it became weaker).In this day and age with all the technology about that most of the models got that wrong is quite refreshing!

[damianslaw]

Can we say the La Nina state is having minimal impact so far on our winter.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Can we say the La Nina state is having minimal impact so far on our winter.

It has not on the northern hemisphere overall (dominant Alutian Trough) however La Nina is not really bad for December anyway. Typically the high pushes into Europe during moderate La Nina's during January, more Scandinavia during weak La Nina's.

US Pattern has resembled more of a -AO than El Nino/La Nina.

Edited January 6, 2021 by summer blizzard

[SqueakheartLW]

Seems CFS is at it again going bold and predicting next season's ENSO status already

Looks like CFS keeps us basically in La Nina or cold ENSO Neutral for the foreseeable and with the average line dipping as we head into Autumn 2021 is CFS already going for another La Nina winter

[summer blizzard]

Small sample but most moderate peak Nina's are multi year.

[summer blizzard]

Brilliant trade burst right now.

[SqueakheartLW]

37 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Brilliant trade burst right now.

The SOI has posted some crazy positive numbers recently yet despite this the La Nina is still getting weaker, makes no sense

[summer blizzard]

30DEC2020 - Nino3: -0.9, Nino3.4: -1.2, Nino4: -1.1

Weeklies did respond then and Nino 4 is the coldest its being since probably 2011/2010. 

December ONI was -1.0, OND ONI (likely peak of the event) came in at -1.3. 

 

Edited January 9, 2021 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

06JAN2021 - Nino3: -0.8, Nini3.4: -1.1, Nino4-1.2

[Weather-history]

What is the current state of the ENSO? 

[summer blizzard]

13JAN2021 - Nino3: -0.9, Nino3.4: -1.2, Nino4: -1.3

20JAN2021 - Nino3: -0.6, Nino3.4: -1.1, Nino4: -1.4

27JAN2021 - Nino3: -0.2, Nino3.4: -0.7, Nino4: -1.1

03FEB2021 - Nino3: -0.3,, Nino3.4: -0.7, Nino4: -1.1

 

ONI for January was -1.0 and NDJ ONI dropped to -1.2.

Event in warming from the east as is generally expected although the sub-surface remains below average. 

December SOI was the highest since Dec 11 and the January SOI was the highest since Jan 11. 

60% chance that event transitions to neutral according to the NOAA however without removal of the sub-surface anomolies i would suggest that the chances of a summer/Autumn second wave are high.

[damianslaw]

Where are we with ENSO going into Spring, La Nina weak, moderate, going into neutral? Likely effects?

[summer blizzard]

La Nina is still borderline moderate during January but should weaken into spring. Likely to strengthen late in the year.

Sub-surface is still solidly Nina.

Loosely speaking Nina means a better Q2, worse Q3 in terms of summer.

Edited February 24, 2021 by summer blizzard

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

La Nina is still borderline moderate during January but should weaken into spring. Likely to strengthen late in the year.

Sub-surface is still solidly Nina.

Loosely speaking Nina means a better Q2, worse Q3 in terms of summer.

Thanks, should next winter be either neutral or el nino. Why should la Nina strengthen again? 

Also dont la Nina years bring wintry spells April. 1998 a good case in point.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks, should next winter be either neutral or el nino. Why should la Nina strengthen again? 

Also dont la Nina years bring wintry spells April. 1998 a good case in point.

So our best analogues are 1971, 1974, 1984 1989, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 which all hit moderate by Q4 of their first year. Only 1989 and 1996 failed to produce a Q4 Nina by end of the next year and 1995 barely made it to moderate.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

So our best analogues are 1971, 1974, 1984 1989, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 which all hit moderate by Q4 of their first year. Only 1989 and 1996 failed to produce a Q4 Nina by end of the next year and 1995 barely made it to moderate.

Mmm I'll take 1984 please both for summer and following winter, or 1989 just for summer. Other years not good summers, though 96 was fairly decent I guess and July 99 was good. Autumn - winter 08/09 a good pick as well.

Edited February 24, 2021 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm I'll take 1984 please both for summer and following winter, or 1989 just for summer. Other years not good summers, though 96 was fairly decent I guess and July 99 was good. 

84 came off a 83 super Nino so depending on how you buy into atmospheric memory that might not be best. 89 is the best example of a Nina which just collapsed.

https://twitter.com/commoditywx/status/1363909500516859907?s=20

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

La Nina is still borderline moderate during January but should weaken into spring. Likely to strengthen late in the year.

Sub-surface is still solidly Nina.

Loosely speaking Nina means a better Q2, worse Q3 in terms of summer.

Maybe why CFS has a fairly pronounced UK trough anomaly for August.

Repeating pattern of quite dire Augusts recently.

Edited February 24, 2021 by CreweCold

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks, should next winter be either neutral or el nino. Why should la Nina strengthen again? 

Also dont la Nina years bring wintry spells April. 1998 a good case in point.

Pretty sure 1998 was after a strong El Nino winter and hadn't turned La Nina yet. The last cold April was 2016 which was also after the super El Nino winter of 15/16.

[damianslaw]

Perhaps confused, reference to the years mentioned are we saying winter following I.e. 84-85 not 83-84.. 

Trying to work out which years best align with where we are now and expect to be through the spring ENSO wise. 1989 mentioned that brought a cold April, unusually so, in a sea of warmth. An oddity. 

Edited February 25, 2021 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

Ah, so the years I mentioned are now, so into the first winter of the Nina's.

[summer blizzard]

SOI was the strongest in Feb since 2011. 

10FEB2021 - Nina3: -0.9, Nina3.4: -1.2, Nina4: -1.2

17FEB2021 - Nina3: -0.3, Nina3.4: -0.7, Nina4: -1.0

24FEB2021 - Nina3: -0.9, Nina3.4: -1.2, Nina4: -1.0

ONI for February is about -0.95 which continues the very slow weakening.

ONI for DJF will come in at -1.0.