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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, a moderate/low La Nina looks more likely and is my understanding correct, that this gives a better chance of a colder Winter?

 

IM NOT A WEATHER EXPERT FAR FROM IT IM BIT CLUELESS BUT DOESNT A WEAK LA NINA  BRING UK A WETTER MILDER WINTER RATHER THAN A COLDER WINTER 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    So, a moderate/low La Nina looks more likely and is my understanding correct, that this gives a better chance of a colder Winter?

     

    From my somewhat limited knowledge, we have a better chance of cold with a weak to moderate La Niña (-0.5 to -1.5), although it doesn't guarantee it of course... 

    Edited by Premier Neige
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    21 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Is the Nina becoming more east based again?

    sst-trend-7d_7day.current.thumb.png.9e189accc5923d2ad98aba1664d549d6.png

    I noticed this on the 7 day trend with warming taking place in the CP NINO 3.4 region whilst the NINO 1+2 and eastern part of NINO 3 look to be cooling down again

    I had the same thought yesterday but posted it on the early winter thoughts thread. The latest graphs show a further increase in temperature in 3.4 region and also a slight increase in 1 + 2. Furthermore, the latest NASA update now shows QBO in east descending phase (sorry for off topic QBO comment)...

    nino34.png

    nino12.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    2 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

    Further temperature increases today in regions 3.4 and 1 + 2:

     

    nino34-1.png

    nino12-2.png

    All NINO regions are now warming, that is except for NINO 3 which is remaining relatively stable. 1+2 is so close to the S American coast and always varies quite a lot. I tend to rely more on the NINO 3, 3.4 and 4 regions to define an event

    NINO 4 has warmed quite a bit

    image.thumb.png.9652eefd8f40bd4e6fac6260c3766d91.png

    Wonder if this is a big hint of the direction for next year, an El Nino event maybe

    NINO 3 is as I said quite stable at present

    image.thumb.png.60e7df0f658eecb39f0df19c46f84b52.png

    Maybe with warming in both NINO 4 and 3.4 whilst keeping NINO 3 where it is could push us back into an EP La Nina again.

    The sub surface anomalies certainly don't support a CP La Nina

    Untitled.thumb.png.5f4d14e95c5c3b2e207e9bbf95d816af.png

    The coldest sub surface anomalies are simply based too far east to support a CP La Nina. The core of the cold is near 120 to 140 W. This favours NINO 3 getting the coldest anomalies with 3.4 and 4 less so. With this pattern it may be no real surprise that the coldest anomalies in region 3.4 couldn't be sustained for very long

    For it to be a true CP La Nina the core of the cold sub surface anomalies would have to be based from 160 to 180 W with warmer anomalies in the sub surface E Pacific region

    With no real cold sub surface anomalies under region 4 it is no surprise that has warmed up so much recently, aided by some negativity of the SOI coming back in more recent weeks.

    Those warmer sub surface temperatures are persisting in the W Pacific and have looked to have strengthened slightly in recent times too. Perhaps another hint of what could be on the way next year

    With a possible shift back to an EP La Nina this has increased my hopes again for this winter that we may see more colder conditions at times and my latest look at CFS charts on weather outlook seems to be shifting ever more towards a back loaded winter. February and March are looking increasingly likely to be colder than average at present

    Very much an EP La Nina pattern with the cold more focused after New Year

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    All NINO regions are now warming, that is except for NINO 3 which is remaining relatively stable. 1+2 is so close to the S American coast and always varies quite a lot. I tend to rely more on the NINO 3, 3.4 and 4 regions to define an event

    NINO 4 has warmed quite a bit

    image.thumb.png.9652eefd8f40bd4e6fac6260c3766d91.png

    Wonder if this is a big hint of the direction for next year, an El Nino event maybe

    NINO 3 is as I said quite stable at present

    image.thumb.png.60e7df0f658eecb39f0df19c46f84b52.png

    Maybe with warming in both NINO 4 and 3.4 whilst keeping NINO 3 where it is could push us back into an EP La Nina again.

    The sub surface anomalies certainly don't support a CP La Nina

    Untitled.thumb.png.5f4d14e95c5c3b2e207e9bbf95d816af.png

    The coldest sub surface anomalies are simply based too far east to support a CP La Nina. The core of the cold is near 120 to 140 W. This favours NINO 3 getting the coldest anomalies with 3.4 and 4 less so. With this pattern it may be no real surprise that the coldest anomalies in region 3.4 couldn't be sustained for very long

    For it to be a true CP La Nina the core of the cold sub surface anomalies would have to be based from 160 to 180 W with warmer anomalies in the sub surface E Pacific region

    With no real cold sub surface anomalies under region 4 it is no surprise that has warmed up so much recently, aided by some negativity of the SOI coming back in more recent weeks.

    Those warmer sub surface temperatures are persisting in the W Pacific and have looked to have strengthened slightly in recent times too. Perhaps another hint of what could be on the way next year

    With a possible shift back to an EP La Nina this has increased my hopes again for this winter that we may see more colder conditions at times and my latest look at CFS charts on weather outlook seems to be shifting ever more towards a back loaded winter. February and March are looking increasingly likely to be colder than average at present

    Very much an EP La Nina pattern with the cold more focused after New Year

    Yes it's pleasing to see temperatures pull back up to moderate territory as it was looking like we were heading for a strong Niña event not so long ago. Over on Gav's Weather Vids they did an ENSO analogues special and there was a definite correlation between weak to moderate la Niña and colder winters (although not in every case of course). I can't help feeling it can only help our chances this time around. 

    As for next year, if we are to have an El Nino, let's hope it's not a strong one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    3 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

    Yes it's pleasing to see temperatures pull back up to moderate territory as it was looking like we were heading for a strong Niña event not so long ago. Over on Gav's Weather Vids they did an ENSO analogues special and there was a definite correlation between weak to moderate la Niña and colder winters (although not in every case of course). I can't help feeling it can only help our chances this time around. 

    As for next year, if we are to have an El Nino, let's hope it's not a strong one!

    It would have been interesting if CFS had got it right and we went into full blown Super Nina territory. The 1916/17 one was certainly borderline super and that winter was a cold one. The reanalysis charts for that La Nina showed it to be a borderline Super EP La Nina.

    image.thumb.png.38a28bb313dbd052b1c763a63b8a2d0d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    While there are always abnormalities events as strong as ours typically move west with time and indeed as the atmosphere becomes better coupled (SOI is still indicative of a relatively weak event at 30 and 90 days suggesting that as per the MJO the atmosphere is struggling to couple to the ocean on a sustained basis).

    With the ocean and local trade winds firmly hammering away at a pretty strong event right now we are essentially in a race. Either the ocean will win and over time the local trades will dominate on a much more global scale (in which the event will likely move west) or the lack of a wider atmospheric response will cause periods like now to stall the event and eventually to the point that it starts dyeing back.

    The Dec-Jan period will be key here in the sense that since May the tropical cycle has essentially produced two months of very low glaam and one month of pretty high (May-August-November) which means the next disruption may occur in February (in which case December aside we might struggle as the normal strong La Nina pattern dominates) however if the event essentially peaks now and is weakening through Dec-Jan then winter hopes improve. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham

    Looks like we're heading into moderate-weak territory across the board now. Large daily temperature increases of around 0.5c per day for the last couple of days in 1 + 2...

    nino12-3.png

    nino34-2.png

    nino3.png

    nino4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Every little helps....

    Glosea seeing a rapid cooling looking at the updated maps for DJF...

    Hoping Glosea is wrong, but its a quite brilliant tool so would rarely back against it....

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Every little helps....

    Glosea seeing a rapid cooling looking at the updated maps for DJF...

    Hoping Glosea is wrong, but its a quite brilliant tool so would rarely back against it....

    I take it you saw this (apologies if anyone is annoyed this isn't posted to the tweet thread)? 

    Yet more 2020 frustration or confusion. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    11NOV2020 - 1.2: -0.3,  3.4: -1.0

    More easterlies coming though. 

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    After crunching all the numbers from all that data I got from the following websites I have used this and CET data to come up with the following analysis as predictors for winters with certain ENSO anomalies and types

    https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

    First as a reference to make sense of all the CET anomalies that appear to not match up I have used the following CET 30 year means to get my anomalies for all years between 1870 and 2020

    807795226_Dec_MarCET30YrAv.thumb.jpg.5b6e9114a5d22a3c1a4c4b8c96033554.jpg

    As a rule I have chosen the middle decade in each 30 year period and used the 30 year average that has this particular decade in the middle of it. An example is winters 1870/71 to 1879/80 where I have used the 30 year decade 1861-1890. The winter 1880/81 comes under the following 30 year period. All years from 1990/91 onwards are covered by 1981-10 until we get the new 1991-20 averages when 2000/01 onwards will be covered by this new climatological average

    I have assessed all of the data and sorted each winter based on the average ENSO status in all 4 NINO regions by using the average anomaly between October and February to account for peak ENSO status as well as the general status during the winter accounting for any delays in atmospheric response to the ENSO status of that month so allowing delays the atmospheric period covered is most likely to be November to March as a result.

    Only December to March figures are shown for the CET data however since these are the 4 months that contain an official period of winter both meteorologically and astronomically.

    First I will list all of the years of each ENSO status between 1870/71 and 2019/20 along with strength and type too

    La Nina's

    558580478_LaNinaYears.thumb.jpg.3ac54741ee22e927058365aaa959b67b.jpg

    ENSO Neutral's

    733313219_EnsoNeutralYears.thumb.jpg.cb939f8ee92b0de6f177b6841d6490e8.jpg

    El Nino's

    1713725450_ElNinoYears.thumb.jpg.d45e823518f5d3b7bbaec300f909e1b2.jpg

    Study these for as long as you like or you may wish to download the image files for future reference if you wish

    However the most important part is now to come, to make sense of all of this and work out general effects of each ENSO status and type on the resulting winter CET

    La Lina Winters

    581051146_LaNinaStats.thumb.jpg.1c8cecdcf11050fb1c5198388d641280.jpg

    ENSO Neutral Winters

    1122118122_EnsoNeutralStats.thumb.jpg.09dff3fd4e83e1f4efd255b2a58d6d9d.jpg

    El Nino Winters

    35470225_ElNinoStats.thumb.jpg.1a6da4e8afac29cd0864dd1b8b6bf36d.jpg

    As you may have discovered quite quickly here it seems La Nina years have the best chance of producing a colder than average winter whilst El Nino years are the mildest on average

    Different strengths and positioning of the peak anomalies associated with each also had a dramatic effect on the winter too it would seem. One or two options had so few winters associated with them that you cannot really read much into that data, especially the ones that had just 1 winter option

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    On 11/11/2020 at 09:41, Essex snowman said:

    IM NOT A WEATHER EXPERT FAR FROM IT IM BIT CLUELESS BUT DOESNT A WEAK LA NINA  BRING UK A WETTER MILDER WINTER RATHER THAN A COLDER WINTER 

    No, you're thinking of a strong la nina 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham

    All regions currently in weak to moderate territory. At the moment it looks more east based although the temperature difference in 3.4 isn't hugely different....

    nino12-4.png

    nino34-3.png

    nino3-1.png

    nino4-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

    Have projections for a strong La Nina now fallen flat.

    Starting to look more like we will have a moderate event which looking at the latest NINO region anomalies looks east based at present but it wouldn't take much to make it a mixed La Nina. Unless something strange happens I think we can now rule out a central Pacific La Nina.

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.c0f70165413d54b3c9ff6d5039af710c.jpg

    Moderate east based La Nina could mean game on for a colder than average winter and with how little the Atlantic seems to have dominated even during the autumn with some unusual patterns showing up in the models suggests we could be onto a "different" kind of winter this year, only as long as the stratospheric polar vortex doesn't couple up to the tropospheric one

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    18NOV2020 - 1.2: -0.7, 3.4: -1.5 

    It's more central than east based for me but not west based (coldest anomolies in region 3).

    October came in at -1.4 for the ONI probably, we'll need this weeks value but i do agree that November probably won't be much different (possibly a tad warmer even) so it's possible we may be peaking albeit there is a surge in the trades ongoing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    17 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    18NOV2020 - 1.2: -0.7, 3.4: -1.5 

    It's more central than east based for me but not west based (coldest anomolies in region 3).

    October came in at -1.4 for the ONI probably, we'll need this weeks value but i do agree that November probably won't be much different (possibly a tad warmer even) so it's possible we may be peaking albeit there is a surge in the trades ongoing. 

    I thought NINO 3.4 was central Pacific, not NINO 3.

    image.thumb.png.cefecd9feda612b72b67cdb079eee9cd.png

    NINO 4 = West Pacific

    NINO 3.4 = Central Pacific

    NINO 3 = East Pacific

    NINO 1+2 = Far East Pacific (More or less coastal region of S America)

    In a Central Pacific event the greatest anomalies compared to average are usually in NINO 3.4 and to a lesser extent NINO 4

    In a mixed event the biggest anomalies are usually in NINO 3.4 and 3

    In an East Pacific event the greatest anomalies are usually NINO 3 and 1+2

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    25NOV2020 - Nino3: -1.3, Nino3.4: -1.3, Nino4: -0.7

    ONI for November looks like it should come in at -1.3 which was actually a little below October at -1.4 so we may be at peak subject to the strength of the next surge. September likely came in at -0.9 which puts SON ONI at -1.2 and signals that OND may be the peak. A value of -1.2 would also confirm this event as the strongest since Jan 11 (over 9 years). 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Looks like the La Nina is weakening quite rapidly now. All ENSO regions have warmed up somewhat

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.ef66be67096484b115a08fcec64cb1db.jpg

    Although still classed as a moderate La Nina due to the region 3.4 anomaly which is the most stable region at present it seems that all other regions are now warming up, especially in the E Pacific regions. This La Nina is now more centrally based but with the rapid weakening this is highly unlikely to have that much impact on the weather patterns

    However sub surface anomalies don't really support this kind of weakening of the La Nina

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.df1753c5027b775b7341ad1e4f82743a.jpg

    We still have all those cold anomalies which should support the continuation of the La Nina event. If these cold waters persist well into next year we could be looking at another La Nina next year too, maybe even more of an east based event with where the coldest anomalies are placed

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    SON oni was confirmed at -1.2, strongest since Jan 11.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    02DEC2020  -  Nino3: -0.7, Nino3.4: -1.1, Nino4: -1.0

    09DEC2020  -  Nino3: -0.8, Nino3.4: -1.2, Nino4: -0.8

     

    Nino 3.4 definitely peaked in October without a change as we slowly wane. 

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