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See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

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13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Strong la nina wouldn't be good for our winter prospects. Weak to moderate could be a goer though.

yes, I agree week to moderate borderline is perfect but ONI around -1.5C in winter would be terrible, might mean that November could be the wintriest month of all 🙂 

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12 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

strong La Nina here favour cold and snowy winters

I mean, as long as someone takes a slightly large dump in North America it seems it favours a cold Winter over there at the moment!

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1 minute ago, Wynter said:

I mean, as long as someone takes a slightly large dump in North America it seems it favours a cold Winter over there at the moment!

depends where you are La nina tends to favour colder weather in the prairies of Canada and the midwest through the great lakes area of the US.. further east tends to be wetter and warmer and the south is warm and dry..so places such as new york , Washington and new england it favours wet mild winters 

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On 01/09/2020 at 21:37, CreweCold said:

Strong la nina wouldn't be good for our winter prospects. Weak to moderate could be a goer though.

No worries if you don't know but any idea why a weak to moderate one is like the holy grail for us, yet a strong one may as well be an El Nino? What massive changes does such a small difference in the La Nina figure make?

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5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

No worries if you don't know but any idea why a weak to moderate one is like the holy grail for us, yet a strong one may as well be an El Nino? What massive changes does such a small difference in the La Nina figure make?

Well I'm no teleconnections expert (Tamara and Singularity are the people for that) but from the historical data, strong ENSO events either way tend to produce zonal winters with a +NAO. Quite a strong correlation I believe.

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3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

No worries if you don't know but any idea why a weak to moderate one is like the holy grail for us, yet a strong one may as well be an El Nino? What massive changes does such a small difference in the La Nina figure make?

Moderate to strong La Nina’s crush tropical convection and disrupt poleward heat transport so the late season vortex is under no pressure, enhanced sub-tropical easterlies also strengthen mid-latitude westerlies. Weak La Nina’s still allow for the kind of forecast amplifications in AAM  that we saw in August and are forecast late this month (so we can generate wave pressure on the vortex) temporarily and that’s often enough since the weaker thermal gradient in late Autumn gives those temporary amplifications less resistance in Dec/Jan especially.

Weak El Nino’s often fail to deliver and I’m not entirely sure why, possibly the late Autumn thermal gradient provides too much resistance even with robust wave activity. Moderate EL Nino’s perform as well as weak La Nina’s likely because they produce a standing convective wave putting the vortex under significant Constant strain in addition to weakening the mid-latitude westerlies. 

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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I'm no teleconnections expert (Tamara and Singularity are the people for that) but from the historical data, strong ENSO events either way tend to produce zonal winters with a +NAO. Quite a strong correlation I believe.

Most models going for a weak/moderate La Nina.

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53 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I'm no teleconnections expert (Tamara and Singularity are the people for that) but from the historical data, strong ENSO events either way tend to produce zonal winters with a +NAO. Quite a strong correlation I believe.

Yes it’s a minefield I am still trying to work out after much reading. La Niña and El Niño totally different yet both bring similar conditions to our shores at strong levels.

40 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Moderate to strong La Nina’s crush tropical convection and disrupt poleward heat transport so the late season vortex is under no pressure, enhanced sub-tropical easterlies also strengthen mid-latitude westerlies. Weak La Nina’s still allow for the kind of forecast amplifications in AAM  that we saw in August and are forecast late this month (so we can generate wave pressure on the vortex) temporarily and that’s often enough since the weaker thermal gradient in late Autumn gives those temporary amplifications less resistance in Dec/Jan especially.

Weak El Nino’s often fail to deliver and I’m not entirely sure why, possibly the late Autumn thermal gradient provides too much resistance even with robust wave activity. Moderate EL Nino’s perform as well as weak La Nina’s likely because they produce a standing convective wave putting the vortex under significant Constant strain in addition to weakening the mid-latitude westerlies. 

Thanks! It does indeed make some sense. Perhaps strong El Nino’s just enhance the thermal gradient between the poles and the tropics too much..?

I’d have thought either way, the main hurdle is preventing the PV getting organised in the late autumn as by late Jan it’s on its way down again, although it’s interesting that La Niña winters often see a hyperactive vortex in Feb and March.

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These statements are backed up by my analysis of ENSO events and the winter CET's associated with them

SUPER EL NINO OVERALL STATS                                   DEC        JAN       FEB        OVERALL
        ENSO                                              1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11       4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        +2.37        +2.40       +2.30       +2.00      +1.53             6.63       5.77       4.63        5.68      +1.31 MILDER
                                                         1949-2020 Anomaly    +1.80     +1.66    +0.45       +1.31     THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 2015/16, 1997/98 and 1982/83

STRONG EL NINO OVERALL STATS                                 DEC        JAN       FEB      OVERALL
        ENSO                                              1949-2020 CET     4.83         4.11       4.18      4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        +1.62        +1.62         +1.50      +1.24       +0.88           5.06        3.96       5.00       4.67      +0.30 MILDER
                                                          1949-2020 Anomaly    +0.23      -0.15     +0.82     +0.30    THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1957/58, 1965/66, 1972/73, 1987/88 and 1991/92

WEAK EL NINO OVERALL STATS                                      DEC        JAN       FEB      OVERALL
        ENSO                                                1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11       4.18       4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        +0.66         +0.66       +0.63       +0.53       +0.37           5.12        3.96       4.48       4.52       +0.15 MILDER
                                                         1949-2020 Anomaly    +0.29       -0.15     +0.30      +0.15     THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1952/53, 1953/54, 1958/59, 1969/70, 1976/77,
1977/78, 1979/80, 2004/05, 2006/07, 2014/15, 2018/19 and 2019/20

MODERATE EL NINO OVERALL STATS                             DEC      JAN       FEB       OVERALL
        ENSO                                                1949-2020 CET    4.83       4.11       4.18        4.37
       OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
       +1.11         +1.16       +1.04       +0.84       +0.60             4.64       3.30       3.67        3.87       -0.50 COLDER
                                                          1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.19      -0.81      -0.51       -0.50      THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1951/52, 1963/64, 1968/69, 1986/87, 1994/95, 2002/03 and 2009/10

Thankfully we should be able to rule out the top 3 options in this list since El Nino looks like a certain no for Winter 2020/2021. How much all cold lovers would want to see the final option above of a moderate El Nino for that -0.50 C colder pattern they produce and this was the coldest option overall in my analysis.

STRONG LANINA OVERALL STATS                                   DEC      JAN       FEB       OVERALL
        ENSO                                               1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11      4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        -1.64         -1.71         -1.61       -1.34        -1.03            4.63        5.51       5.60       5.24      +0.87 MILDER
                                                         1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.20       +1.40    +1.42      +0.87    THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1973/74, 1975/76, 1988/89, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2007/08 and 2010/11

ENSO NEUTRAL (N) OVERALL STATS                               DEC       JAN        FEB      OVERALL
        ENSO                                                1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11       4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
           -0.10       -0.03        -0.03       +0.10       +0.19            4.01        3.94       4.59        4.18     -0.19 COLDER
                                                           1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.82      -0.17      +0.41      -0.19    THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1993/94, 1992/93, 1989/90, 1960/61, 1978/79, 1981/82 and 1959/60

ENSO NEUTRAL (W) OVERALL STATS                               DEC      JAN      FEB       OVERALL
        ENSO                                                1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11       4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        +0.40         +0.40       +0.40      +0.30       +0.20             4.55       4.25       3.45        4.08      -0.29 COLDER
                                                          1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.28       +0.14     -0.73       -0.29     THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1990/91 and 2003/04

The above 3 options are more likely to happen than any of the El Nino options. The strong La Nina is probably the most likely one of these to ruin our chances of a colder winter in 2020/2021 since La Nina is still developing. A collapse of the La Nina is still possible which could push us towards ENSO Neutral again but that isn't a bad signal overall as both Neutral and Warmer ENSO Neutral came away with colder than average analysis.

WEAK LANINA OVERALL STATS                                       DEC        JAN       FEB      OVERALL
        ENSO                                               1949-2020 CET    4.83         4.11       4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        -0.79          -0.80        -0.69       -0.54         -0.40            5.49        3.72       3.60       4.27      -0.10 COLDER
                                                          1949-2020 Anomaly    +0.66      -0.39      -0.58      -0.10     THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1954/55, 1964/65, 1971/72, 1974/75, 1983/84,
1984/85, 2000/01, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2016/17 and 2017/18

MODERATE LANINA OVERALL STATS                              DEC        JAN      FEB      OVERALL
        ENSO                                                1949-2020 CET    4.83        4.11      4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        -1.18          -1.15        -1.14        -0.98        -0.80            4.76        4.40       3.18        4.11     -0.26 COLDER
                                                          1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.07       +0.29     -1.00       -0.26    THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1949/50, 1955/56, 1970/71, 1995/96 and 2011/12

ENSO NEUTRAL (C) OVERALL STATS                               DEC       JAN       FEB      OVERALL
        ENSO                                                1949-2020 CET    4.83         4.11      4.18        4.37
        OND Av    NDJ Av    DJF Av    JFM Av    FMA Av        DecAv    JanAv    FebAv    OverallAv
        -0.23          -0.35         -0.40       -0.34        -0.18             4.18        3.84      3.75        3.92      -0.45 COLDER
                                                           1949-2020 Anomaly    -0.65       -0.27     -0.43       -0.45     THAN AVERAGE ON AVERAGE
Based on winters of 1950/51, 1956/57, 2001/02, 1961/62, 2012/13, 1962/63, 1980/81, 2013/14, 1996/97, 1966/67, 1985/86 and 1967/68

The most likely ENSO options for Winter 2020/2021 are Weak Lanina, Moderate LaNina or ENSO Neutral on the colder side. The good news for cold lovers is that all of these options produce a colder than average outcome. Weak La Nina is the least cold of them so maybe a slightly stronger La Nina could help us out but as long as it doesn't get too strong of course.

The best thing for cold lovers is probably if we back track a bit back to ENSO Neutral on the colder side. This was the 2nd coldest option in my analysis with only the moderate El Nino a bit colder. ENSO Neutral on the colder side wasn't far behind it and is the best option we can have this year for cold prospects.

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8 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Do I see that right or has 1.2 really crashed by 1C in just a week?

Yeah but 1.2 is shallower so it tends to be more volatile relative to 3.4 and there were also one or two relatively low latitude tropical systems mixing the water that may have distorted observations.

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09SEP2020: 1.2: -1.0, 3.4: -1.0 

Note on the sub-surface map how broad the -1 isotherm now is at the surface (makes it much more likely to be full basin event as it gets reinforced by the standing wave and Nino 4 drops off). 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Noticed good signs at present at least for an EP La Nina as opposed to a CP La Nina

They each have different effects on the most likely winter pattern we would very likely see in western Europe and the UK

The EP variant is most likely to produce a colder than average winter with an increased risk of a -NAO in January to March with December as the least cold of the winter months

The CP variant has the biggest risk of cold in December and maybe even November too but the signal for cold rapidly weakens from January onwards as a +NAO pattern is more likely to dominate

My weak and moderate La Nina analysis both came out colder than average overall but there was huge variations between the winters within them. Some appeared to be very front loaded and others looked to be colder in the new year. Perhaps the differences between them was the EP La Nina vs the CP La Nina winters

The best signals for cold always appear to be to have the coldest anomalies in the eastern Pacific with the warmer waters further west in the central and western Pacific

This is also maybe why a modoki El Nino is also good for cold as it is basically a warm version of the EP La Nina

Now to get onto the current situation

The latest changes in SSTA's look promising in some areas of the world

Untitled1.thumb.jpg.354a7679e1c9eeea68a34e0ef76c67ac.jpg

The first which ticks the box for a possible colder UK winter is that dramatic cool down in the equatorial E Pacific, perfect signs for an EP La Nina based on that one and so an increased chance of a -NAO winter with this anomaly change

Another good news event is that region of cooling in the N Pacific too. Although not far enough east it could be the first signs of the La Nina having a cooling effect on the Pacific and if it is this then the pattern should continue

The third region of cooling is in the N Atlantic with that stripe of cooling taking place where we would want it to if we want to see a tripole forming in the N Atlantic. The only problem is that rapid cooling near Greenland which could undo all of the effects of the cooling in the other zone

The next things which look promising for an EP La Nina are the sub surface anomaly charts

Untitled2.thumb.jpg.2d5656717a2d1bfc0c044b61971d1444.jpg

These charts are based on the last month or two and show what looks like near perfect anomalies to get an EP La Nina

1 - The second wave of cooling was only just appearing here on 27th July 2020 and at this stage it looked like this was going to expand and surface in the CP region, bad news for a colder UK winter except for November and December which could still stand a chance of being colder at least but the overall winter would come out milder than average

2 - By 11th August it was looking even worse as that cold was intensifying and pushing upwards in the central region of the Pacific but was starting to stretch eastwards too but at a slow rate at this point. Still alarm bells sounding "MILD UK WINTER ALERT"

3 - By 26th August the first signs of a possible push to an EP La Nina were starting to show as the cold on the western side of the cold anomaly was weakening slightly whilst the core of the cold had pushed eastwards. Still not totally out of the CP threat but we could now say at least that the mild UK winter threat was reducing somewhat

4 - 10th September shows a further expansion of the cold towards the east Pacific whilst the western edge of the colder anomalies continues to weaken slightly. Also the warmer region in the west has expanded and is pushing eastwards under the surface. This could be helpful in preventing a CP La Nina if only these warmer anomalies could come to the surface west of 160W

5 - The most recent analysis of the anomalies shows how cold the sub surface anomalies have become under the Eastern Pacific, between -4 and -6 below normal in places. Just imagine if that came to the surface and we got a La Nina with a region 3 anomaly of -6C. I will have to keep an eye on these sub surface charts to see if there is a big risk of a strong or even Super Nina.

What would an EP Super Nina do for our winter if EP Nina's are supposed to be a good sign for cold weather in the UK winter

Sea surface temperature anomaly charts

Earth Nullschool                                      Tropical Titbis                                           NOAA

Untitled4.thumb.jpg.18be4dfc8e4ecc54f350d117ee2adac8.jpgUntitled5.thumb.jpg.8d1210e0511adf13fff7e703b9e27e31.jpgct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20200923.thumb.png.e3acef0f24028b294b29bcd4fe070820.png

Each of the above SSTA charts clearly show the current EP La Nina but the NOAA one also shows up the clear -IOD signal but that annoying warm N Pacific. It is also clear to see that cooler region appearing between the 2 lines in the N Atlantic. Is this a good sign that the tripole that was showing up in May is on the way back again to assist in getting a cold UK winter

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I've been teaching myself data visualisation in Tableau for work, so thought I'd also have a go at plotting some CET data against ENSO / QBO data.  Here's a chart showing the mean winter CET for all years since 1951 (on the horizontal axis) and mean ENSO ONI data for the winter (on the vertical axis).  The symbols indicate QBO data averaged for the winter months, circles are EQBO, squares are WQBO, filled are stronger values, unfilled are weaker, and an asterisk represents very weak / neutral values.  The year shown is for January / February, so '2010' represents winter 2009/10.  

1160715864_DJFENSO(ONI)vsWinterCET.thumb.png.627f92586ff9c242bbcf70a0a5a47340.png

It's a bit crude as it covers the whole winter and so doesn't indicate (for example) whether a winter is front-loaded or back-loaded for cold, and I could only find the ONI data for ENSO which covers the Nino 3.4 region, so this doesn't indicate the impact of Central or Eastern Pacific La Nina / Modoki El Nino for example.

A couple of interesting observations from the chart: (1) aside from 2009-10 which is a bit of an outlier, it seems that coldest winters tend to be clustered closer to ENSO neutral, and while it doesn't seem to make much difference whether it is El Nino or La Nina, some of the warmest winters have been associated with the strongest events: e.g. 2015/16 and 1988/89.  (2) the QBO doesn't seem to make a great deal of difference to the outcome, with both EQBO and WQBO of varying magnitudes at either end of the scale, at least when averaged over the winter here. 

I'm still learning so it would be interesting to know if there are any other datasets that would be better to use, or for example whether using previous autumn or OND / NDJ values for ENSO / QBO would be more helpful if there is likely to be a lag in the effect on UK weather.  

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19 hours ago, virtualsphere said:

I've been teaching myself data visualisation in Tableau for work, so thought I'd also have a go at plotting some CET data against ENSO / QBO data.  Here's a chart showing the mean winter CET for all years since 1951 (on the horizontal axis) and mean ENSO ONI data for the winter (on the vertical axis).  The symbols indicate QBO data averaged for the winter months, circles are EQBO, squares are WQBO, filled are stronger values, unfilled are weaker, and an asterisk represents very weak / neutral values.  The year shown is for January / February, so '2010' represents winter 2009/10.  

1160715864_DJFENSO(ONI)vsWinterCET.thumb.png.627f92586ff9c242bbcf70a0a5a47340.png

It's a bit crude as it covers the whole winter and so doesn't indicate (for example) whether a winter is front-loaded or back-loaded for cold, and I could only find the ONI data for ENSO which covers the Nino 3.4 region, so this doesn't indicate the impact of Central or Eastern Pacific La Nina / Modoki El Nino for example.

A couple of interesting observations from the chart: (1) aside from 2009-10 which is a bit of an outlier, it seems that coldest winters tend to be clustered closer to ENSO neutral, and while it doesn't seem to make much difference whether it is El Nino or La Nina, some of the warmest winters have been associated with the strongest events: e.g. 2015/16 and 1988/89.  (2) the QBO doesn't seem to make a great deal of difference to the outcome, with both EQBO and WQBO of varying magnitudes at either end of the scale, at least when averaged over the winter here. 

I'm still learning so it would be interesting to know if there are any other datasets that would be better to use, or for example whether using previous autumn or OND / NDJ values for ENSO / QBO would be more helpful if there is likely to be a lag in the effect on UK weather.  

very interesting chart ..i really struggled to see any real correlation between el nino, la nina or neutral and the outcome of winter temperatures in the UK..would be interesting if you did the same chart analysis for my neck of the woods..im pretty sure there would be a much stronger link between el nino = mild and la nina = cold.. I wonder if you overlaid the PDO if that would through up some differences??

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On 28/09/2020 at 17:24, cheeky_monkey said:

very interesting chart ..i really struggled to see any real correlation between el nino, la nina or neutral and the outcome of winter temperatures in the UK..would be interesting if you did the same chart analysis for my neck of the woods..im pretty sure there would be a much stronger link between el nino = mild and la nina = cold.. I wonder if you overlaid the PDO if that would through up some differences??

If there's a similar temperature series for Canada to the CET, it should be pretty straightforward to drop it into the same template - let me know and I can give it a go?  I have downloaded the PDO data so that's something I'm hoping to add to the mix, at first glance the very coldest winters in the UK (CET below around 2.8C) look fairly close to neutral and then a fairly random spread.

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On 27/09/2020 at 22:05, virtualsphere said:

I've been teaching myself data visualisation in Tableau for work, so thought I'd also have a go at plotting some CET data against ENSO / QBO data.  Here's a chart showing the mean winter CET for all years since 1951 (on the horizontal axis) and mean ENSO ONI data for the winter (on the vertical axis).  The symbols indicate QBO data averaged for the winter months, circles are EQBO, squares are WQBO, filled are stronger values, unfilled are weaker, and an asterisk represents very weak / neutral values.  The year shown is for January / February, so '2010' represents winter 2009/10.  

1160715864_DJFENSO(ONI)vsWinterCET.thumb.png.627f92586ff9c242bbcf70a0a5a47340.png

It's a bit crude as it covers the whole winter and so doesn't indicate (for example) whether a winter is front-loaded or back-loaded for cold, and I could only find the ONI data for ENSO which covers the Nino 3.4 region, so this doesn't indicate the impact of Central or Eastern Pacific La Nina / Modoki El Nino for example.

A couple of interesting observations from the chart: (1) aside from 2009-10 which is a bit of an outlier, it seems that coldest winters tend to be clustered closer to ENSO neutral, and while it doesn't seem to make much difference whether it is El Nino or La Nina, some of the warmest winters have been associated with the strongest events: e.g. 2015/16 and 1988/89.  (2) the QBO doesn't seem to make a great deal of difference to the outcome, with both EQBO and WQBO of varying magnitudes at either end of the scale, at least when averaged over the winter here. 

I'm still learning so it would be interesting to know if there are any other datasets that would be better to use, or for example whether using previous autumn or OND / NDJ values for ENSO / QBO would be more helpful if there is likely to be a lag in the effect on UK weather.  

Found some data here with ONI values for all NINO regions

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

It unfortunately only goes back to 1982.

Ignore the temperature values as they appear to be totally out of step with what was going on at the time and concentrate only on the anomalies which are more representative of what happened at the time

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Done some conversion of that data I found on the following website

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

I created my own tri monthly anomalies from all of the data for all NINO regions and colour coded each to represent ENSO status and strength. It is clear to see the CP vs EP events as well as the basin wide ENSO events too.

1982 to 1985                                           1985 to 1988                                            1988 to 1991

1312505849_NINOP1.thumb.jpg.1a2c5cc2621712c094e50633c7467a6b.jpg1884644905_NINOP2.thumb.jpg.28bc97470a4198a8a723eb1056a9af4b.jpg1663359792_NINOP3.thumb.jpg.85358c9c58166ac463aa349646aabb63.jpg

 

1991 to 1994                                           1994 to 1997                                            1997 to 2000

1871581374_NINOP4.thumb.jpg.6628516376742f2d5064c9dfb78882a2.jpg1664269064_NINOP5.thumb.jpg.7d149cb4655cd9c1f7f550432a8d0521.jpg1451293533_NINOP6.thumb.jpg.d356d9eb8a9dcdbbfc9bdc17446d7a6e.jpg

 

2000 to 2003                                           2003 to 2006                                            2006 to 2009

2054469637_NINOP7.thumb.jpg.2842ef8b66d249be11f25165a716a522.jpg726266824_NINOP8.thumb.jpg.c6af0c9ade230b7144a5787acf2bbb39.jpg698661385_NINOP9.thumb.jpg.1aef29a220b9ebe3029b7fc5d51b31e7.jpg

 

2009 to 2012                                           2012 to 2015                                            2016 to 2019

1727001936_NINOP10.thumb.jpg.95903ec010e5af010e262a74c61d2d82.jpg1732588267_NINOP11.thumb.jpg.cebfa9b3d08cb0ac3d4bbf817065b3a1.jpg568383557_NINOP12.thumb.jpg.35ea682a55ce73ed2e4a86a37bf31b43.jpg

 

2019 to Now

273301918_NINOP13.thumb.jpg.b75773b7b8d7b72253432ce7fc477bb7.jpg

Study these and make of them whatever you wish. You will no doubt spot several non recognised EP ENSO events as you go through these. I have pointed a few of them out.

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