E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

ONI for AMJ came in bang on 0.0.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like Nino 4 is being the spoiler at the moment. 

Here is Nino 1.2 and 3.4..

Completely poles apart initially.

However it seems 3 and 4 also diverge unusually.

So what we effectively have is a Nino 1.2.3 Nina right now. 

Currently seeing significant trade burst around Nino 4 which may cool things down and you can also see that the atmosphere is starting to show a more coherent standing wave around 120-150E.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

Trade burst now forecast from 120E to 90W, not often you see that.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

Yes it's an annoyance especially since we'd sustained a relatively negative PDO signal for the longest duration since 2013. Let us hope that it relents and we can see a more negative Victoria mode value.

[summer blizzard]

Second wave appears to be occurring. Both 1.2 and 3.4 have fallen in July as trades have strengthened. We appear to be seeing a kelvin wave moving east in the Pacific though so it’s the first real test of whether this Niña will put that wave down and strengthen or be knocked back.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 12/07/2020 at 19:37, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

That shows a drier than average area just S of Greenland, suggestive of N Atlantic blocking. CFS still going all guns blazing for N Atlantic block in December and lower than average European heights.

I'm becoming increasingly confident this winter will be COLD.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

1.2 is now below -2 on the dailies. 

Pool is trying to surface.

[summer blizzard]

ONI for MJJ came in at -0.2, first negative value since May 2018. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by summer blizzard

[summer blizzard]

Weekly CPC values..

22JUL2020 1.2: -1.2, 3.4: -0.4          

29JUL2020 1.2: -1.1, 3.4: -0.8         

05AUG2020 1.2: -1.2, 3.4: -0.6     

Nino 4 has also negative on CPC from the 22nd.

Currently tracking ahead of 2017 which only averaged about -0.2 during August and peaked at -1 in NDJ so it suggests the scope to still develop a moderate La Nina exists (would be the strongest since the 2010-2013 event).

Sub-surface is still based a little too far east (means that Nino 4 may lag or even go positive at times) but fundamentally healthy below the surface (about to crack out -4 below Nino 3).

We are facing the strongest westerly wind burst east of the dateline in at least two months so the first real test is about to begin.      

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[mountain shadow]

9 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Looks fairly average for NW Europe but tentative signs of North Atlantic ridges. 

Would be good to have a corresponding temperature chart.

Edited August 19, 2020 by mountain shadow

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 19/08/2020 at 08:55, mountain shadow said:

Looks fairly average for NW Europe but tentative signs of North Atlantic ridges. 

Would be good to have a corresponding temperature chart.

Looks like a Scandi trough is deduced from that so yes, I'd go along with your analysis.

[summer blizzard]

19AUG2020 1.2: -1.1,  3.4: -0.8 

[summer blizzard]

Forecast trades look very strong across the Pacific and 3.4 dailies are crashing.

[cheeky_monkey]

i think a moderate la Nina is now likely similar to 2010-11

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i think a moderate la Nina is now likely similar to 2010-11

Odds are against it being more than borderline. Proper moderate events typically have a quick flip from Nino where as we've had a relatively slow one. 1970 and 2007 are of course the examples which go against that and support your point.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]