E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Yarmy]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

The first couple weeks of November look more -NAO than +NAO though.

Yes, definitely, and a theme so far this year from April/May really is to underestimate the -NAO. Nonetheless, with so many long range models having such a strong signal for a powerful +NAO, it's difficult to believe they could all be that wrong despite all the usual caveats about uncertainty.

[Don]

5 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Think that's now a full house of raging +NAO long rangers for winter. You'd think that would temper expectations somewhat.

Wouldn't you.

Not good is it?!

Edited November 1, 2019 by Don

[ArHu3]

14 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Think that's now a full house of raging +NAO long rangers for winter. You'd think that would temper expectations somewhat.

Wouldn't you.

The models are pretty good at forecasting +NAO 4-6 weeks out unfortunately (and really crap at forecasting blocking, you can't trust forecasts even only 3-4 days out) but they are not infallible and certainly not past 6 weeks. So first half of winter we can probably write of but that still leaves the 2nd half with some good looking signs: switch to eQBO, solar minimum, mostly neutral ENSO and more ice to our north (especially north northeast) than we have seen in a long time 

[knocker]

 

Edited November 15, 2019 by knocker

[joggs]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

 

Could someone please explain what the above shows/means and what impacts it will have?.

Thanks.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, joggs said:

Could someone please explain what the above shows/means and what impacts it will have?.

Thanks.

Well I certainly cannot add to the link in the post

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2019-enso-update-people-your-neighborhood

Edited November 15, 2019 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That's a very positive AO forecast there!  Going to hard going to get a cold January out of that.

[northwestsnow]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

That's a very positive AO forecast there!  Going to hard going to get a cold January out of that.

There isn't going to be any cold in Jan Don..

Feb who knows..

[Don]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There isn't going to be any cold in Jan Don..

Feb who knows..

Not too hopeful about February either, as once this pattern locks in, it can do so for some time and the long range models are not offering any hope.  However, we will see where we are in a month's time.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Don

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[damianslaw]

A  trend to a weak La Nina for summer then, correct me if wrong, but La Nina tends to produce mid atlantic highs, and cool northerly airstreams - not very good news for anyone wanting some summer warmth. Indeed would not be surprised to see a change of fortunes for Spring - chilly and damp.. 

 

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

[damianslaw]

A  trend to a weak La Nina for summer then, correct me if wrong, but La Nina tends to produce mid atlantic highs, and cool northerly airstreams - not very good news for anyone wanting some summer warmth. Indeed would not be surprised to see a change of fortunes for Spring - chilly and damp.. 

 

3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

[damianslaw]

Further to the above, good to know people's views on expected ENSO developments as we move througn Spring into summer - reading signs and signals of a weak La Nina, which tends to not bode well for early summer warmth..

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

While i don't see that much of a dip happening, certainly not in Summer, i also do not see how anyone can confidently predict an El Nino either, it is just too far away, Next winter up for grabs, everything else looks like falling into place, can ENSO and more importantly the PDO?

[Summer Sun]

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

 

 

Yes, this is Nothing - any SSW will not happen until March if at all.

[Don]

9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Next winter up for grabs, everything else looks like falling into place, can ENSO and more importantly the PDO?

Need to see a change in the North Atlantic profile, too.  Haven’t had a strong La Niña since the super Niño of 2015/16.  Interesting ENSO update on Gavs Weather Vids suggests the lack of a strong La Niña could be part of the reason why the word has been so warm the last few years.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Need to see a change in the North Atlantic profile, too.  Haven’t had a strong La Niña since the super Niño of 2015/16.  Interesting ENSO update on Gavs Weather Vids suggests the lack of a strong La Niña could be part of the reason why the word has been so warm the last few years.

Yes true - we need a tripole.

[Don]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes true - we need a tripole.

We can only hope everything falls into place for us next year.

[summer blizzard]

In the short term we have now seen (or will by the end of February) three tri-monthly values at weak Niño territory so we may by end of April have a Niño event declared.

in the longer term however things are more interesting with cold water west of the dateline and global models generally showing a cooling into summer to at least enso neutral-negative.

 

If we do see a Niño declared for Q1 but a Niña declared by Q4 then analogies are 1973, 1995, 1998, 2010 and 2016 though all came from stronger Nino’s.

[Don]

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

In the short term we have now seen (or will by the end of February) three tri-monthly values at weak Niño territory so we may by end of April have a Niño event declared.

in the longer term however things are more interesting with cold water west of the dateline and global models generally showing a cooling into summer to at least enso neutral-negative.

 

If we do see a Niño declared for Q1 but a Niña declared by Q4 then analogies are 1973, 1995, 1998, 2010 and 2016 though all came from stronger Nino’s.

A bit of a mix there regarding the summers!

[karyo]

CFSv2 is keen on developing La Nina by the time we get to July.

The other models generally less keen on that but still with neutral/negative enso values by July or August.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf