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Gray-Wolf

E.N.S.O. Discussion

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I am more interested to see what is going to happen with the Hurricane season than worry about our winter at this stage.

The updated CFSv2 get the el nino close to moderate strength in June-July before it weakens a bit. However, the enso values would need to increase sharply in the next month or so for CFSv2 to be right.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

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Suspect that the CFS is over-amplyfying the signal. The current standing wave will likely prompt an increase in ENSO values during May/June in 3.4 but i can't imagine they'd be that substantial. 

Meanwhile, sub-surface data is now leaning towards culling the Nino sometime this summer. 

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Net upper ocean heat anomolies are now falling off a cliff.

Net sub-surface anomolies are now negative west of the dateline. 

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On 08/05/2019 at 10:50, karyo said:

I am more interested to see what is going to happen with the Hurricane season than worry about our winter at this stage.

The updated CFSv2 get the el nino close to moderate strength in June-July before it weakens a bit. However, the enso values would need to increase sharply in the next month or so for CFSv2 to be right.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf 

The latest update shows that the temperature in region 3.4 had a drop in the last week, so even less chance for the CFSv2 to get it right with the strength.

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Posted (edited)

Sub-surface pool of +2 anomolies beneath 1.2 has now been split and all but collapsed, cold anomalies of -2 are close to upwelling.

.. This Nino folks is all but done without a significant change.

Edited by summer blizzard

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10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Sub-surface pool of +2 anomolies beneath 1.2 has now been split and all but collapsed, cold anomalies of -2 are close to upwelling.

.. This Nino folks is all but done without a significant change.

Does this mean we will be entering winter with an ENSO neutral state?

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22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Does this mean we will be entering winter with an ENSO neutral state?

Much too early to say.

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And there we have it folks.. upper ocean heat content is now negative.

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Given the continued eastward propagating tropical wave activity (e.g. MJO) expected in the coming weeks, there's likely to be some fight back from the surface conditions against those cooler than usual subsurface conditions. So it could be that those subsurface anomalies are kept waiting for another month or two as upwelling to the surface continues to be reduced or halted.

For what it's worth, GFS/GEFS seems to be having a bit of trouble locking onto the next eastward propagating tropical activity, while ECM/EPS is already well onto it. So probably worth viewing extended GFS/GEFS output with even more scepticism than usual. For ECM/EPS we can stick with the usual confidence levels (i.e. only falling to low in the 8-14 day range... as opposed to very low to negligible for GFS/GEFS).

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Given the continued eastward propagating tropical wave activity (e.g. MJO) expected in the coming weeks, there's likely to be some fight back from the surface conditions against those cooler than usual subsurface conditions. So it could be that those subsurface anomalies are kept waiting for another month or two as upwelling to the surface continues to be reduced or halted.

For what it's worth, GFS/GEFS seems to be having a bit of trouble locking onto the next eastward propagating tropical activity, while ECM/EPS is already well onto it. So probably worth viewing extended GFS/GEFS output with even more scepticism than usual. For ECM/EPS we can stick with the usual confidence levels (i.e. only falling to low in the 8-14 day range... as opposed to very low to negligible for GFS/GEFS).

EC seems to be pushing the Azores high agenda this evening-

Interesting period incoming..

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Agree with the post from Singularity. Sub-surface anomolies have continued to weaken through the month but it will still take a while to upwell, especially with continued movement of the wave through the Pacific. 

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by knocker

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ENSO Wrap-Up

Quote

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole likelihood increases

The Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere remain close to El Niño thresholds, so the ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. Models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will ease away from El Niño levels, becoming neutral during winter. The Indian Ocean is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate, with models predicting a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop in the coming months.

An active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the last fortnight weakened the trade winds and brought a small rise in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and western tropical Pacific Ocean and a drop in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This has sustained the El Niño-like pattern in the Pacific. While a prolonged weakening of the trade winds could elevate El Niño chances once again, the majority of surveyed models suggest the tropical Pacific will cool to neutral levels during winter.

In the Indian Ocean, further warming off the horn of Africa has meant that the IOD index exceeded the positive threshold value this week. All but one of the models surveyed suggest positive IOD levels will be maintained throughout winter. To be considered an event, these values would need to be sustained for at least two months. A positive IOD often results in below average winter–spring rainfall over southern and central Australia.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

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As speculated the strong persistent wave did cause a fightback at the sub-surface late in the month with a little re-strengthening and repositioning.

The wave has however passed the Pacific and we are now forecast to see persistent trade winds around the dateline for the next week or two so this will be make or break.

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I believe the models are making a total hash of the MJO propagation at the moment (see MOD thread for some major insight on the reasons why from Tamara), with the trade wind surge being sustained for too long. So I expect the El Nino to stagger, but not to go down just yet, with a bounce back during the 2nd half of June.

I don't have a crystal ball, mind - this is just experience talking, with the associated caveats (only human, etc).

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Yes it will be interesting to view the fight back. The current trade burst looks to be the most prolonged this year, still going strong out to mid month.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Singularity said:

I believe the models are making a total hash of the MJO propagation at the moment (see MOD thread for some major insight on the reasons why from Tamara), with the trade wind surge being sustained for too long. So I expect the El Nino to stagger, but not to go down just yet, with a bounce back during the 2nd half of June.

I don't have a crystal ball, mind - this is just experience talking, with the associated caveats (only human, etc).

Then there're those pesky PV remnants still floating around -- how much of a 'spanner' are they still throwing into the workings of the NH?:unknw:

Edited by Ed Stone

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26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Then there're those pesky PV remnants still floating around -- how much of a 'spanner' are they still throwing into the workings of the NH?:unknw:

They're displaced cold pools that naturally form troughs and surface lows at this time of year. As we're getting to know all too well 😒.

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Interesting battle coming up in the Pacific. We have enhanced westerlies forecast west of the dateline and enhanced easterlies east of the dateline.

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2 hours ago, karyo said:

It looks like this weak El nino is continuing to weaken based on the latest enso update. The CFS v2 is taking it back to neutral levels for the rest of the summer while the other models show a continuation of a weak event.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Upper ocean heat anomaly did rise back to positive after the standing wave persisted in May but has been declining recently.

We are basically in no mans land for the next month waiting to see if the trades cull the event or whether another standing wave sets up.

West of the dateline net heat content is now solidly negative though. 

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Sub-surface has now hit -3 at around 120W though a forecast westerly wind burst may dilute that for a few weeks.

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The warm sub-surface waters near the surface have split in the face of the upwelling colder water.

This could be significant once the westerly wind burst dies down in terms of warm anomolies east of the dateline collapsing.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The warm sub-surface waters near the surface have split in the face of the upwelling colder water.

This could be significant once the westerly wind burst dies down in terms of warm anomolies east of the dateline collapsing.

Temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere oceans (SSTs) have been dropping rapidly in the last 2 weeks.

Anybody any ideas why this is happening?  It seems to be causing the upwelling of the cold water in the more tropical regions.

In confirmation Climate Reanalyser is showing a negative anomaly of -0.2c for these oceans.

It seems as if next Thursday's ENSO report from CPC NOAA/NCDC may well be for a quicker than expected collapse of the current weak El Nino. 

MIA 

 

gfs_world-ced2_sstanom_1-day.png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere oceans (SSTs) have been dropping rapidly in the last 2 weeks.

Anybody any ideas why this is happening?  It seems to be causing the upwelling of the cold water in the more tropical regions.

In confirmation Climate Reanalyser is showing a negative anomaly of -0.2c for these oceans.

It seems as if next Thursday's ENSO report from CPC NOAA/NCDC may well be for a quicker than expected collapse of the current weak El Nino. 

MIA 

 

gfs_world-ced2_sstanom_1-day.png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

The CCI anomalies suddenly dropped in mid June... at the same time as the introduction of the new GFS model which is known to be cold biased

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

This still hasn't been resolved it appears....

image.thumb.png.c368e52c1111bb3bff7d29bb0d361b7c.png

Saying that though there is a notable cold spell across parts of South America at the moment and cold spells at this time of the year here occur more often during La Nina years. 1999, 2007 and 2010 saw periods of winter temperatures below average in this region.

image.thumb.png.4590c7020a84c694f41e2d0905e02811.png

It wouldn't surprise me if this year saw a negative ENSO value but we are entering a phase of uncertainty at the moment where ENSO could swing either way.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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