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On ‎21‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 18:12, Matthew Wilson said:

Can't we concentrate on Summer first?:D But yes from what I gather if we have a weak El Niño going into winter is a good roll of the dice( 5 or 6) Solar minimum begins around 2019 but late this year would be well on its way so we could score that with a 4 maybe? A easterly QBO should be here by late this year also. I agree that a cold winter should come within the next 3 years. Just depends on how all the many variables interact with each other to where the highs and lows sit in relation to the Uk. 

Thanks Matthew for your very helpful reply. :)  Yes i think the next few winters could deliver more in the way of active wintry weather for us snow starved midlanders/southerners though still ending up near average overall but showing hints of whats to come, think our best chance of a very cold winter will be in the early to mid 20's.

 

 

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I see the NCAR CESM is the only model in the N. American suite that does not develop a proper Nino signature for the summer. It is quite alone in having a cold patch in the ENSO region for this month and next. It's also forecasting a warm summer for the UK...

NCAR_CESM_ensemble_tmpsfc_lead1.png

All the outlooks from the suite here.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

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I see there is talk of a super Nino forming which according to Peruvian scientist Jorge Manrique Prieto is because of high level of subterranean volcanic activity.

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I don't buy the super Nino talk. The evolution of most large Nino's sees warm water move west to east at the sub-surface then slosh back at the surface (2015 being a classic example). This one sees persistent trades in the central pacific and weak oceanic heat content anomalies.

Nino may win out but i can't see it being more than weak. 

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On 3/30/2017 at 14:12, jonboy said:

I see there is talk of a super Nino forming which according to Peruvian scientist Jorge Manrique Prieto is because of high level of subterranean volcanic activity.

Have you a link to that? It sound like total nonsense, but if it's by a somewhat reputable scientists I'd be interested to read his thoughts.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Have you a link to that? It sound like total nonsense, but if it's by a somewhat reputable scientists I'd be interesting to read his thoughts.

I was just looking for the same, all I could find in English was this from Ice Age Now https://www.iceagenow.info/monster-el-nino-forming-will-devastating-last-one/

All sounds a bit sensationalist.

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Cheers, JF. I followed the link to the original article https://puntodevistaypropuesta.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/peru-se-viene-otro-nino-mas-devastador/

He uses NOAA a map showing equatorial sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) and points to the normal warm waters in the western Pacific as being proof of his volcanic induced ENSO theory.
A little more digging and it appears he's an electrical engineer, so probably quite out of his depth when discussing oceanography or the effect of solar magnetism/gravity on earthquakes

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

 

Modoki El Nino and an E'ly QBO- pretty much the holy grail winter drivers I believe?

If you're of the cold persuasion may I add.

Edited by CreweCold
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8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Modoki El Nino and an E'ly QBO- pretty much the holy grail winter drivers I believe?

If you're of the cold persuasion may I add.

Plus a quiet sun!

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Although I have some understanding of the effects of a Nino Modoki on US weather I'm afraid I'm not conversant with what they are in north west Europe, including the UK. Some enlightenment would be appreciated.

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On 04/04/2017 at 10:22, BornFromTheVoid said:

Cheers, JF. I followed the link to the original article https://puntodevistaypropuesta.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/peru-se-viene-otro-nino-mas-devastador/

He uses NOAA a map showing equatorial sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) and points to the normal warm waters in the western Pacific as being proof of his volcanic induced ENSO theory.
A little more digging and it appears he's an electrical engineer, so probably quite out of his depth when discussing oceanography or the effect of solar magnetism/gravity on earthquakes

Oh dear total tosh. The level of volcanic activity is the same as it has been for thousands of years. If there was huge up turn activity such basalt flood plains occurring then we would have a change in climate. 

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32 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Oh dear total tosh. The level of volcanic activity is the same as it has been for thousands of years. If there was huge up turn activity such basalt flood plains occurring then we would have a change in climate. 

Well this was referring to undersea volcanic activity which we know little about and therefore cannot say whether it's increasing or not. However if such activity is driving the noted above Nino then it is changing climate

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April 2017 ENSO update: Conflicting signals from the tropical Pacific Ocean

Quote

The tropical Pacific Ocean has been giving mixed signals recently, making a forecaster’s job even more difficult! In short, many of the computer models we use are predicting the development of El Niño over the next several months, but current conditions in the tropical Pacific aren’t showing many of the elements we’d expect ahead of a developing El Niño.

We’ve had neutral ENSO conditions since January, and forecasters predict that continued neutral is the most likely scenario through at least June. By September, chances of El Niño rise to about 50%, a slight edge over neutral (~40% chance) or La Niña (~10% chance).

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2017-enso-update-conflicting-signals-tropical-pacific-ocean

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Are we likely to see an El Nino again come autumn/winter?

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Are we likely to see an El Nino again come autumn/winter?

Last thing I heard, the ECM long ranger was going for Modoki Nino by October

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7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Are we likely to see an El Nino again come autumn/winter?

Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently exist in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, in the far eastern tropical Pacific during February and March, strong ocean warming, combined with a collapse of the trade winds, resulted in localised severe impacts in Peru and adjacent countries. This strong warming event has now weakened. Most climate models surveyed indicate that basin-wide ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through April-June 2017, followed by a 50-60% chance of El Niño development in the subsequent months. The continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions is slightly less likely, while the emergence of La Niña appears remote. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Last thing I heard, the ECM long ranger was going for Modoki Nino by October

Which i presume could be good for next winters prospects if that happened. 

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5 minutes ago, sundog said:

Which i presume could be good for next winters prospects if that happened. 

In isolation yes, but no doubt it would over ridden by some other unforeseen teleconnection.

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Latest average of all ENSO forecast models calls for weak El Nino conditions by peak of Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). H/t Philip Klotzbach

nino.thumb.jpg.3dd5a63801a31c69302e78591c2526e0.jpg

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10 hours ago, knocker said:

Latest average of all ENSO forecast models calls for weak El Nino conditions by peak of Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). H/t Philip Klotzbach

nino.thumb.jpg.3dd5a63801a31c69302e78591c2526e0.jpg

This looks like a downgrade compared to the last couple of plumes so I won't be surprised if we end up with an enso neutral state in the end.

 

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