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2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Thanks for that Knocks! I can't say I'm surprised though ( as my posts above will show?)

To me it was about another Nino in 2018 or 19 and I'm pretty worried that it'll take 98's crown as the strongest we have yet measured?

Even if it is not as strong as the 98' event the other factors ( reduced global dimming/extremely low Arctic sea ice) will be pumping warmth into the climate so even without a huge wallop from Nino we'll see records tumbling and the 1.5c above 1880 passed?

I think you are going around in circles looking for the cause of El Nino and La Nina and then making conclusions on how they are linked. Also, to me the 2015/2016 looks both stronger than the 98 and longer in duration. There is no rule that states a La Nina has to follow an El Nino and certainly no rule or even pattern to the strengths.

There is no way of knowing today how strong the next El Nino will be or even when it will be. You might even have one starting next year.

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5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Having seen so much interference with the ocean's attempts at developing a La Nina this year even when there were stretches of anomalies in the -2 to -2.5*C range in the Central Pacific in the autumn, the following question comes to mind:

Could it be that in a warmer world, while convection can still be encouraged to focus in different locations by the changes in SST anomalies, the fact that the oceans are overall warmer means that there is still enough heat and moisture to allow convective episodes when and where there once would not have been any? Such interference is not a new phenomenon by any means, but the frequency of such events would increase if my thinking is true to reality.

I'm just thinking off the top of my head here so this may not be feasible after all - but I have heard some suggestions in recent years that La Nina events will become increasingly scarce under climate change, so perhaps my idea is part of the mechanism. Then again, those suggestions are theories in themselves :crazy:

 

anomnight.12.5.2016.gif

 

The oceans actually look really cold to me, not warm

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Having seen so much interference with the ocean's attempts at developing a La Nina this year even when there were stretches of anomalies in the -2 to -2.5*C range in the Central Pacific in the autumn, the following question comes to mind:

Could it be that in a warmer world, while convection can still be encouraged to focus in different locations by the changes in SST anomalies, the fact that the oceans are overall warmer means that there is still enough heat and moisture to allow convective episodes when and where there once would not have been any? Such interference is not a new phenomenon by any means, but the frequency of such events would increase if my thinking is true to reality.

I'm just thinking off the top of my head here so this may not be feasible after all - but I have heard some suggestions in recent years that La Nina events will become increasingly scarce under climate change, so perhaps my idea is part of the mechanism. Then again, those suggestions are theories in themselves :crazy:

 

People should explain how they think climate change will lead to less La Nina events. ENSO is still quite a mystery in terms of understanding why they happen and understanding patterns to them, even forecasting them is near impossible, let alone with trying to mumble something together as to how climate change influences them.

 

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1 minute ago, jvenge said:

People should explain how they think climate change will lead to less La Nina events. ENSO is still quite a mystery in terms of understanding why they happen and understanding patterns to them, even forecasting them is near impossible, let alone with trying to mumble something together as to how climate change influences them.

 

I found this very interesting graph, the -pdo seems to coincide with medieval warm and the +pdo with the mini ice age:

 

1920px-PDO1000yr.svg.png

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8 minutes ago, jvenge said:

People should explain how they think climate change will lead to less La Nina events. ENSO is still quite a mystery in terms of understanding why they happen and understanding patterns to them, even forecasting them is near impossible, let alone with trying to mumble something together as to how climate change influences them.

 

Yes I'd sure like to see some explanations too. I'm left speculating for the sake of speculating.

Having said that, ENSO events are not as mysterious as you suggest. The models struggled a bit with the La Nina at first but have seen the neutral tendency reasonably well (a few months) in advance.

It's just what will happen under climate change that's very tricky to resolve.

 

. . . . . .

sst.daily.anom.gif

@ArHu3 I find this map easier to interpret. A big swathe of negative anomalies associated with the recent raging jet stream in the N. Pacific (a side effect of the deep cold in Siberia). A very intermittent signature within the ENSO region, with wave features still evident as they have been throughout this 'La Nada' event. 

Meanwhile the N. Atlantic, for whatever reason, is cooking - but that's for another thread.

Edited by Singularity

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Yes I'd sure like to see some explanations too. I'm left speculating for the sake of speculating.

Having said that, ENSO events are not as mysterious as you suggest. The models struggled a bit with the La Nina at first but have seen the neutral tendency reasonably well (a few months) in advance.

It's just what will happen under climate change that's very tricky to resolve.

 

. . . . . .

sst.daily.anom.gif

@ArHu3 I find this map easier to interpret. A big swathe of negative anomalies associated with the recent raging jet stream in the N. Pacific (a side effect of the deep cold in Siberia). A very intermittent signature within the ENSO region, with wave features still evident as they have been throughout this 'La Nada' event. 

Meanwhile the N. Atlantic, for whatever reason, is cooking - but that's for another thread.

Yeah, okay, a few months ahead and even then there is scatter on that ;-) Trying to predict what dominates 2017, 2018 and 2019 is just not possible now though in both the event of strength.

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As the ocean warms the average warms but , in real terms of degrees 'C' The last two Nina's have been the warmest on record? The same must be true of Nino with strong events now pushing temps only seen in the Super Nino before?

Let us also not forget what was going on in the strat above the regions this year esp. in Feb? When the B.O.M. are seeing no atmospheric cooperation with a Nina event and that they favour those supporting a weak Nino you have to think something odd is going on?

It's that old 'push - pull' thing of if Nino can bully atmospheric responses then could atmospheric conditions, mimicking those responses, drive events below? With heat surrounding the regions could the low trades lead to variable winds driving surface warmth around the regions and warming out any surfacing cold?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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18 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As the ocean warms the average warms but , in real terms of degrees 'C' The last two Nina's have been the warmest on record? The same must be true of Nino with strong events now pushing temps only seen in the Super Nino before?

Let us also not forget what was going on in the strat above the regions this year esp. in Feb? When the B.O.M. are seeing no atmospheric cooperation with a Nina event and that they favour those supporting a weak Nino you have to think something odd is going on?

It's that old 'push - pull' thing of if Nino can bully atmospheric responses then could atmospheric conditions, mimicking those responses, drive events below? With heat surrounding the regions could the low trades lead to variable winds driving surface warmth around the regions and warming out any surfacing cold?

You are trying to link warm ocean temperatures to weak La Nina, but there isn't anything to support that. Just like when oceans were warm since 1998 you had many medium to weak El Nino. There isn't yet a definitive answer as to why El Nino or La Nina differs in strength and there really is no pattern to it that people can decipher at the moment.

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GFS-025deg_NH-SAT4_SST_anom.png

If you look at the anoms on this image you can see lobes of cold interspersed with warm anoms. Result? The average becomes 'neutral' across the surface? With IPO positive we are seeing heat retained at the surface across the regions N/S of the equatorial strip. This heat just 'spills' into the regions and gives us the familiar 'saddle and lobe' appearance but when there is more heat than normal? This is why IPO/PDO positive sees a predominance of Nino to Nina ( and the opposite for -ve) as the wider ocean supports/augments that sign of event.. also note the warmth out to the west of the regions.

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See attached. where is the trend type and strength? What will come next, when and how strong?

oni.png

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jvenge, we are in the area of personal opinion now and the one thing none of the modelling system is programmed with are the changes the planet is undergoing. The modellers will have a QBO 'factor' modelled in but would Feb's flip be in that algorithm? Will the oddness going on up north be within the parameters?

Even with human CO2 production falling we are still romping away at over 3ppm ( the worst case scenario pathway on the IPCC models) so what impact is that having when coupled with the Chinese 'clean air' initiative ( and so reduction in dimming across the Pacific letting more and more solar onto the surface of an ocean now in its 'surface warming ' phase?)?

We are in uncharted waters now . the last paper I saw on the QBO flip was titled QBO strangeness: Hiccup or death throes?

We cannot ignore or deny that such forcings now exist and impact? If we think a butterflies wing beat on one side of the planet has the potential to impact the formation of a storm on the other side of the planet then what would you expect from events stretching up into the mesosphere?

We are possibly now entering the strangest period any human has lived through and we all have access to the near live data streams should we care to indulge?

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Hi,

I'm not saying people shouldn't ask questions, but before asking questions and coming with a hypothesis to those questions, you should first look at what data is showing. The data is showing no trend for El Nino or La Nina that can be linked to any impact man may or may not be having on climate, through emissions of CO2 or anything else, for what matter. ENSO is still very much something we know little about, but it APPEARS to be something that has the biggest control over global temperatures on a short term basis. How is that in all those models? :-)

Re the QBO, whatever that is doing now, the leading theory before was that something you should see from the current status, which is unprecedented, is a stronger vortex. That hasn't happened, so what next? You wait and you look at the data, which you then give a hypothesis for. You don't give the hypothesis before you see what happened and the consequences of it.

 

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Er - a hypothesis is a theory to be tested by looking at the data and seeing what the consequences appear to be? Researchers set the hypothesis at the beginning, to guide their work.

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2 hours ago, Singularity said:

Er - a hypothesis is a theory to be tested by looking at the data and seeing what the consequences appear to be? Researchers set the hypothesis at the beginning, to guide their work.

Before explaining why something is happening, you need to know what is happening. You can't have a hypothesis of why something is happening when you don't even know what it is that happens. Observe what happens with the QBO, then put a hypothesis that can be tested over time.

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1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Before explaining why something is happening, you need to know what is happening. You can't have a hypothesis of why something is happening when you don't even know what it is that happens. Observe what happens with the QBO, then put a hypothesis that can be tested over time.

I might see where you're coming from but I'm not sure.

My idea earlier is in some sense a hypothesis for how something as yet unconfirmed could be starting to occur in the very recent past. However, it was not intended as such; the aim was to trigger some discussion as to whether physical mechanisms could possibly allow it.

A thought experiment... sort of.

On the face of it, increased heat and moisture availability even where there are negative SST anomalies relative to the periodically-increasing long-term average makes more interference with La Niña events seem like something that could happen. What I hope for is evidence someone is aware of to support or dispute this in terms of thermodynamics etc, as I currently lack the resources to investigate that myself (TIA to any contributors on the matter).

Edited by Singularity

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On 06/12/2016 at 21:39, jvenge said:

See attached. where is the trend type and strength? What will come next, when and how strong?

oni.png

One thing I glean from that is that seemingly the Strong/very strong Ninos are getting progressively further apart.

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https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2016-enso-update-weeble-wobbles

With B.O.M. going for 'Nada' for the next period and their trigger for Nina not being triggered NOAA are now looking premature in their Nina call in November? To me the reality was that this 'event' was never anything more than the collapse of Nino?

Current IPO positive meant that any up welling cold was instantly mixed out by the ample surface warmth either side of the equator that IPO facilitates?

As for strong/super Nino's? Well with IPO negative ,post 98' , there was not much hope of seeing anything strong emerging? The odd thing was that this period produced 2 'record warm' Nina's?

Should IPO now settle into its phase ( positive since 2014) we would be wise to expect both stronger and more frequent Nino's whilst Nina's find it increasingly difficult to meet even the NOAA trigger for Nina?

My personal feeling is that we will not see Nina called by the more stringent B.O.M. measures and we will go straight into the Next Nino after a period of variable 'Nada'?

We obviously have a couple of 'wild cards' at play? The mess in the stratosphere and the continued reduction of global dimming? God only knows what the PV/QBO will do over this coming period but it will impact globally? The dimming reduction is obviously of importance across the Pacific? With the areas North and South of the equator now in their 'surface heating' phase any extra energy making to ocean level will go on to warm the air above it helping keep global temps high and also mixing out cooler upwelling waters along the nino regions?

 

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7 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2016-enso-update-weeble-wobbles

With B.O.M. going for 'Nada' for the next period and their trigger for Nina not being triggered NOAA are now looking premature in their Nina call in November? To me the reality was that this 'event' was never anything more than the collapse of Nino?

Current IPO positive meant that any up welling cold was instantly mixed out by the ample surface warmth either side of the equator that IPO facilitates?

As for strong/super Nino's? Well with IPO negative ,post 98' , there was not much hope of seeing anything strong emerging? The odd thing was that this period produced 2 'record warm' Nina's?

Should IPO now settle into its phase ( positive since 2014) we would be wise to expect both stronger and more frequent Nino's whilst Nina's find it increasingly difficult to meet even the NOAA trigger for Nina?

My personal feeling is that we will not see Nina called by the more stringent B.O.M. measures and we will go straight into the Next Nino after a period of variable 'Nada'?

We obviously have a couple of 'wild cards' at play? The mess in the stratosphere and the continued reduction of global dimming? God only knows what the PV/QBO will do over this coming period but it will impact globally? The dimming reduction is obviously of importance across the Pacific? With the areas North and South of the equator now in their 'surface heating' phase any extra energy making to ocean level will go on to warm the air above it helping keep global temps high and also mixing out cooler upwelling waters along the nino regions?

 

NOAA called it because the 3.4 numbers were good enough, they are technically correct.

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I'm not questioning the trigger points NOAA use being Triggered S.B. but personally I favour the B.O.M. 0.8 trigger and inclusion of a broader range of atmospheric indicators? Do you think that NOAA will continue with their Nina come Jan 8ths update S.B.?

With so much warmth surrounding the regions I really do not think that such a weedy Nina stands a chance S.B.?

Remember to trigger Nina you need that run of months linked over 5 months so if 1 month falls neutral then you reset the clock and do any of the forecasts go anywhere near nina for enough months for you to be confident that if it does fall it will return in 5 months?

EDIT: PDO also came in with the second highest value ( second only to November 1936) so we are now equal with the longest run of contiguous negatives since 98' but if you tally the positive values they are a far bigger 'total' than the sum of the negatives?

Did the WACCy impact this value by pouring Siberian snowfield chilled air out into the middle of the 'Warm Horse Shoe' over the last few months? If so what does this mean for the future? If you look at the winter month values for the PDO , since 2014, you'll see some record high values in there?? does this reflect a WACCy impacted winter PDO?

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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The Pacific surface anomalies look odd though. It's like the accepted patterns are all being squished and competing against each other. The positive signature is there but way further north in a tight U shape: no broad sweep of warm water down to the equator.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png 

Fig5A_PDOmap.png

I wonder if this is just another peculiarity in current patterns and an added difficulty for seasonal models to resolve.

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1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

The Pacific surface anomalies look odd though. It's like the accepted patterns are all being squished and competing against each other. The positive signature is there but way further north in a tight U shape: no broad sweep of warm water down to the equator.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png 

Fig5A_PDOmap.png

I wonder if this is just another peculiarity in current patterns and an added difficulty for seasonal models to resolve.

Someone already explained that much earlierin this thread but can't remember who or where. The important thing to look for is the warm anomaly on the western canadian/southern alaskan coast . Pdo is not black/white either but more gradual, this is +pdo with -enso

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As a western European, I would be more concerned about what CMC/Cansips is showing for the Atlantic.

CMC1_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

Fortunately it seems to be out on its own with that but most other models of the north American set agree on a warm neutral/ weak Nino for summer.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas5.html

 

Edited by Nouska
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It would be very odd to see a nino form so soon after a moderate nino has just ended would it not?

With IPO/PDO now positive could it be that we see a kind of 'Faux Nino' with a very warmed Pacific bleeding temps into the regions and triggering a low grade Nino?

I'm thinking that 2018/19 is more favoured for a strong Nino to form giving the ocean /atmosphere a chance to settle and re-charge ahead of the event? The only queerer is the QBO. Can we trust it's periods any more and what influence would a near permanent westerly QBO bring with it?

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On 1/8/2017 at 17:42, Gray-Wolf said:

It would be very odd to see a nino form so soon after a moderate nino has just ended would it not?

With IPO/PDO now positive could it be that we see a kind of 'Faux Nino' with a very warmed Pacific bleeding temps into the regions and triggering a low grade Nino?

I'm thinking that 2018/19 is more favoured for a strong Nino to form giving the ocean /atmosphere a chance to settle and re-charge ahead of the event? The only queerer is the QBO. Can we trust it's periods any more and what influence would a near permanent westerly QBO bring with it?

I'm not certain that we will see a weak Nino myself.

At any rate its not terribly unusual to see a new event form, the only thing that stopped a 07-12 Nina was the relatively brief 09/10 Nino and even 2013 had mostly negative ONI values.

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