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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    After the discussions last week between a few of the members on here, I am now intrigued by a Canadian Warming and finding/reading more information about this. Is there any links anyone recommends and also is there any data for CW  (years that experienced a CW)?

    Thanks  :)

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    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

    After the discussions last week between a few of the members on here, I am now intrigued by a Canadian Warming and finding/reading more information about this. Is there any links anyone recommends and also is there any data for CW  (years that experienced a CW)?

    Thanks  :)

    ^^

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    On Friday, September 30, 2016 at 14:02, Bullseye said:

    After the discussions last week between a few of the members on here, I am now intrigued by a Canadian Warming and finding/reading more information about this. Is there any links anyone recommends and also is there any data for CW  (years that experienced a CW)?

    Thanks  :)

    NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update.

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    Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
    On 30/09/2016 at 16:13, Matthew Wilson said:

    I found this interesting about the winter of 2009/10. Has a part of how warm Canada was in February of 10:) An interesting read nethertheless.

    https://sites.google.com/site/whythe2009winterissocold/

    I was living in the canadian rockies then and remember the olympics in Vancouver in Feb 2010. It was so warm I remember it hitting the teens on some days and that was at 4000ft elevation. (in part helped by strong chinook winds) It was a fairly warm snowless winter. The next year made up for it and in fact 2013/14 we had over 30 days in a row we didnt get above freezing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    3 hours ago, fergieweather said:

    NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update.

    Bad news for us coldies but many thanks anyway for the update Ian. Is this waning signal coming from Glosea? And is the Glosea now less inclined towards a neg NAO for this winter?

    Edited by blizzard81
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    I think the signal for a neg NAO was for the early part of winter, lets see what the next update suggests..:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic

    Looks like that warm spot in NE Pacific is starting to weaken and should continue to do so in October. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Zonal wind at 60N 30hPa markedly lower than this time last year. Note pink line is towards the end of the overal average #interesting

    Latest Tweet from Matt Hugo

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Anybody have the phase 8 and 1 data for the MJO..

    NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif

    After a brief upswing last week put 1.2 at 0.8 and 3.4 at -0.4, this week sees 3.4 fall to -0.8 and 1.2 fall to 0.6. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    59 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Any news from the latest EC seasonal output? Is it out today or tomorrow?

    Not sure  ive emailed then for list of dates etc   ill let you know.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
    15 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    And your only telling us now?! Ian, you should know better than to keep this kind of news quiet! haha!

    Just messing, interesting that this appears to go against the Glosea5 signal?

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    27 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    Thank you Ian. Good news indeed for us coldies. Lets hope the meto seasonal update agrees with this. The September one did. I believe the meto seasonal October update should be next week. Could you please confirm?

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    45 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    Good man Mr F. Bringing Santa early to the masses!

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    9 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

    Good man Mr F. Bringing Santa early to the masses!

    Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge
    On 9 October 2016 at 08:23, fergieweather said:

    Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.

    Hi Ian,

    Thanks for updates on here. Really interesting.

    Do you know when next GloSea5 and MeteoFrance updates will be? 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
    4 hours ago, ITSY said:

    Hi Ian,

    Thanks for updates on here. Really interesting.

    Do you know when next GloSea5 and MeteoFrance updates will be? 

    GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

    GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things... 

    Mmmm not what many hoped for - and which do the METO think has more chance of being correct? Too early I guess!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Mmmm not what many hoped for - and which do the METO think has more chance of being correct? Too early I guess!!

    Yep  just had a quick look  seems averge to slightly above  is there take on it so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

    Yep  just had a quick look  seems averge to slightly above  is there take on it so far.

    Yep, a rather watered down version of their September update. I was sort of expecting it though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    Yep, a rather watered down version of their September update. I was sort of expecting it though.

    Mind you  a average winter would be great after the few winters   snow possible

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