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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962

How common is a Canada warming?

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15 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

How common is a Canada warming?

Relatively frequent, but any reversal of zonal winds associated with these (ie even temporarily) are rarities. There's a good case study & broader examination of these events in a paper online (I'd need to check the link/citation).

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8 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Relatively frequent, but any reversal of zonal winds associated with these (ie even temporarily) are rarities. There's a good case study & broader examination of these events in a paper online (I'd need to check the link/citation).

Thank you for the reply. Much appreciated. 

Im guessing we haven't seen these signals in the last couple of winters?

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1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Relatively frequent, but any reversal of zonal winds associated with these (ie even temporarily) are rarities. There's a good case study & broader examination of these events in a paper online (I'd need to check the link/citation).

Hi Ian,

I have looked at CW's in the past - and not only is it difficult to pin down an exact definition ( Do you know what criteria the met office use?) but that they have been very infrequent in recent years. When previously looking at past winters influence on our side of the Atlantic it has been difficult to pin down any specific correlation to the CET - though obviously they disrupt the strat PV to some extent Pacific side.

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17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Hi Ian,

I have looked at CW's in the past - and not only is it difficult to pin down an exact definition ( Do you know what criteria the met office use?) but that they have been very infrequent in recent years. When previously looking at past winters influence on our side of the Atlantic it has been difficult to pin down any specific correlation to the CET - though obviously they disrupt the strat PV to some extent Pacific side.

Hiya

This paper worth a read. Available online in full: 

Screenshot_2016-09-21-22-29-25-1.png

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3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hiya

This paper worth a read. Available online in full: 

Screenshot_2016-09-21-22-29-25-1.png

Cheers Ian, as far as I am aware that was the last one whereas there were numerous during the 70's. A big question that @lorenzo and I have asked in the past few years is why is that?

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

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5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Cheers Ian, as far as I am aware that was the last one whereas there were numerous during the 70's. A big question that @lorenzo and I have asked in the past few years is why is that?

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

An intriguing imponderable...! 

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Anyone remember this from 09-10 this century?:D Coupled even with a Strong El Niño! Neutral or Weak La Niña this year but the latter the possibly better driver as one of the rolls on the dice.

IMG_0571.PNG

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Thanks to @fergieweather for sourcing an answer to my question. :good:

Tropical tidbits do an analogue forecast based on SST, cyclone activity and atmosphere - in light of previous comments about different picture this winter, here is their take on the years closely resembling the NH pattern in August.

analogs_monthly_z500.png

Up until August, it was quite an as you were forecast but the August pattern seems to have changed the ballgame as far as the N.Atlantic picture. Note extensive Arctic blocking for next month and the anomaly for December.

Caveat: 2010 in the analogue composite may be totally skewing the December picture.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs/

 

Edited by Nouska
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Not sure where to post this but the esteemed Jude Cohen is suggesting a weak PV \ negAO and strong siberian high for the upcoming winter. :)

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25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure where to post this but the esteemed Jude Cohen is suggesting a weak PV \ negAO and strong siberian high for the upcoming winter. :)

Not wanting to go too far off topic, but a strong Siberian high can kill stone dead any chance of cold weather for the UK, we end up being stuck in 'no mans land', with the block too far east.

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8 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Not wanting to go too far off topic, but a strong Siberian high can kill stone dead any chance of cold weather for the UK, we end up being stuck in 'no mans land', with the block too far east.

But at leas it's a ticket in the raffle in conjunction with a -AO 

l would take that as a signal to build upon for this winter

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9 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Not wanting to go too far off topic, but a strong Siberian high can kill stone dead any chance of cold weather for the UK, we end up being stuck in 'no mans land', with the block too far east.

Yes -thats true if i were being honest i'm more interested in the suggested weakened PV which hopefully will enable the Siberian high to move westwards towards Scandy, anyway, just a little snippet of info.. :)

 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But at leas it's a ticket in the raffle in conjunction with a -AO 

l would take that as a signal to build upon for this winter

Agreed Blue, its obviously very early to have any sort of confidence in any winter forecasts but the meto probability maps and now Jude Cohens blog update something somewhere is causing a bit of interest for coldies...

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38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes -thats true if i were being honest i'm more interested in the suggested weakened PV which hopefully will enable the Siberian high to move westwards towards Scandy, anyway, just a little snippet of info.. :)

 

Agreed, lets hope that the declining solar cycle 24 will start to show its influence .:)

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2 hours ago, Nouska said:

I note the Met office contingency planners forecast is mentioning all the seasonal modelling is showing the signal for November/December as shown in the analogues I posted up the page.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf

Quite a statement from them "Agreement is also good for the October-November-December period, with climate prediction systems all showing an increased risk of higher-than average sea level pressure anomalies developing to the west or north of the UK through November and into December". "Signals from the long-range prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development."

 "Increased likelihood of winds from the north or east through November into December bringing colder than average conditions balancing out the relative warmth expected through October" 

So certainly eye brow raising considering late Autumn and early Winter being traditionally Atlantic dominated.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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43 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Quite a statement from them "Agreement is also good for the October-November-December period, with climate prediction systems all showing an increased risk of higher-than average sea level pressure anomalies developing to the west or north of the UK through November and into December". "Signals from the long-range prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development."

 "Increased likelihood of winds from the north or east through November into December bringing colder than average conditions balancing out the relative warmth expected through October" 

So certainly eye brow raising considering late Autumn and early Winter being traditionally Atlantic dominated.

Yes, lets hope the signal is maintained through October! i like the sound of winds from the east in Nov/Dec! :D

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3 hours ago, Nouska said:

I note the Met office contingency planners forecast is mentioning all the seasonal modelling is showing the signal for November/December as shown in the analogues I posted up the page.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/1/p/Forecast-temp-OND-v1.pdf

From the mean, it seems that below average temperatures are favoured for the winter period?

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7 hours ago, CreweCold said:

From the mean, it seems that below average temperatures are favoured for the winter period?

My reading of it was that Oct is expected to have above average temps and Oct-Dec overall is likely to be average. However that would suggest that Nov/Dec needs to be below average. Hell, even an average Nov/Dec is likely better for coldies that what we've had the last couple of winters. In fact it pretty much says that itself....

"Therefore, October has a greater than average chance of being warmer than average; however, the period as a whole has equal chances of being warmer than average and colder than average due to the increased likelihood of winds from the north or east through November and into December bringing colder than average conditions, these balancing out the relative warmth expected through October."

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This thread is turning into a winter 16-17 forecast thread... its making for good reading though. Interesting reading about canadian strat warmings, the last one in Nov 2000 was followed by a rather episodic winter for cold and snow, a very mild first half to Dec, with a much colder end, indeed a very snowy cold christmas week. Jan, Feb and March brought average conditions overall, but a few decent cold shots especially in the north with quite a bit of snow.

Alas, looking forward to the strat thread becoming more active.

Is it time we have a thread dedicated to winter 16/17 now that October is nearly upon us, this thread is likely to become the default one either way.

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21 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Quite a statement from them "Agreement is also good for the October-November-December period, with climate prediction systems all showing an increased risk of higher-than average sea level pressure anomalies developing to the west or north of the UK through November and into December". "Signals from the long-range prediction systems from global forecast centres all show this development."

 "Increased likelihood of winds from the north or east through November into December bringing colder than average conditions balancing out the relative warmth expected through October" 

So certainly eye brow raising considering late Autumn and early Winter being traditionally Atlantic dominated.

I've seen worse updates for coldies from the Met Office contingency planners forecast at this time of the year....  Fingers crossed is all I can say!

Edited by Don
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 This would be a nice start and potentially snowy start to mid November. It's just one run and way in the future but hopefully a sign of things to come.

IMG_3106.PNG

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