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Gray-Wolf

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In  the  latest update on  the  enso the wmo say that a la nina event may develop in the 3rd quarter of the yr but if it does it is likely to be weak.

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Hang on, wasn't 62/63 ENSO neutral (negative side) and -QBO dominated winter......

OK I'll get my coat.

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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Hang on, wasn't 62/63 ENSO neutral (negative side) and -QBO dominated winter......

OK I'll get my coat.

Was in the descending phase of the Solar Cycle too :whistling:

Edited by Snowy L

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Latest ENSO update from the BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Niña thresholds.... ...All climate models indicate more cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, but only two of eight models exceed La Niña thresholds for an extended period. A La Niña WATCH (indicating a 50% chance of La Niña in 2016) remains, but if La Niña does develop it would most likely be weak.

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NOAA still has 3.4 at -0.5C so Nina probably would be declared in October should that persist. 

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On 8/3/2016 at 09:05, summer blizzard said:

NOAA still has 3.4 at -0.5C so Nina probably would be declared in October should that persist. 

It requires 3 overlapping months to have La Nina conditions 5 consecutive times before it's declared. So the earliest it would be declared (if JAS is below -0.5C) is February (based on La Nina lasting until NDJ), but it would be considered to have begun around now.

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Yes, its interesting to see both 1.2 and 3.4 opposing each other. This is borne out by the fact that we have enhanced easterlies west of 120W, but enhanced westerlies persisting east of 120W. 

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Looks as though the PDO is finally starting to show signs of beginning to turn negative at last. Cold anomalies beginning to develop off the west coast of the states and across the mid-pacific. Very similar to the post 97/98 El Nino event.

If this continues then this could give a boost for La Nina to strengthen during the Autumn. 

 

Screen Shot 2016-08-11 at 19.38.29.png

Screen Shot 2016-08-11 at 19.38.16.png

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Wavy Gravy ..... the NOAA ENSO blog always pick such cute titles.

What did one ocean say to the other? Nothing, it just waved.

If you look at the map of one-week average sea surface temperature, you may have noticed an interesting feature along the eastern and central equatorial Pacific: a series of waves along the edge of the “cold tongue”. The cold tongue (that term always gives me the heebie-jeebies) is a narrow strip of cooler water right along the Equator that’s present during neutral and La Niña conditions, and is strongest between July and November. It comes from deep ocean water that rises up near the South American coast, and is then spread westward by surface currents.  El Niño’s warming reduces the cold tongue.

SST_daily_20160723_3x2_620.png

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2016-enso-update-wavy-gravy

 

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

1.2: 0.5

3.4: -0.5

A rise in both areas

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sst.daily.anom.gif wkxzteq_anm.gif

La Nina seems to be losing its grip on the tropical Pacific east of around 90W?

In fact it looks like there's some kind of Central-Pacific La Nina, almost the mirror opposite of how the El Nino shaped up in its latter stages (focused more toward the C Pacific).

Despite the lack of eastward extent, it seems to be proving sufficient to push the atmosphere into a weakly negative GLAAM state;

gfsgwo_1.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

It does seem that way is a official La Niña -0.8c cooler?

Edited by weirpig

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The question is, how do the impacts from a La Nina Modoki differ to the East Pacific variant - do the wave guides adjust in a similar way to what happens when you have El Nino Modoki instead of East Pacific El Nino?

At the surface, the tropical East Pacific actually looks more above normal than below:

sst.daily.anom.gif

I wonder if the fishing industry is really missing out on anticipated upwelling of nutrient-rich waters along the western coasts?

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10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutral or, as per BOM-POAMA, a weak Modoki La Nina... thus influence on seasonal modelling will vary at this juncture). Whilst we see some current similarities emerging in latest ECMWF, GloSea5 and CFSv2 output for Dec-Feb, we can't yet be too clever on understanding exactly why they are returning the present signals. QBO situation also yet to be resolved with confidence, of course, albeit interesting to note ongoing tentative signs of a possible reversal/E'rly outbreak even as early as November. In short: far too early to accept any of the current seasonal output with any reasonable degree of confidence, albeit interesting signs of a potentially very different winter to the last one (perhaps unsurprisingly, given the very different base state we had this time last year!)

Interesting  la Nina Modoki and perhaps a easterly QBO   game on perhaps for a more seasonal winter

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