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On 4/23/2016 at 9:54 AM, damianslaw said:

Any predictions for how ENSO might play out for the rest of the year and possible effect on seasonal conditions i.e. a weak La Nina, mid or strong La Nina expectation - the consensus appears to be a swift exchange to la nina rather than neutral conditions. I'm just hoping for a drier late autumn.early winter, strong El Ninos appear to correlate with very wet late autumns/early winters in the NW... 

 

Right now (assuming we don't get a sudden cold surge in 3.4) we have a west based Nino which is weakening at a fair pace (we will record negative values across the board in June probably) so i suspect a summer that may start well but get progressively worse is probably a good bet. For Autumn and winter there are conflicting analogues with 2011 being the last time we have a Nina/-QBO sync (along with 2007) and both of those saw the following winters be a bit poo. On the other hand though, 2005 was quite a nice winter (dry and frosty). 

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25th April update..

1.2:-0.6C

3.4: 1.1C

We've not seen such a west based Nino since early 2010 though chances are that by summer, we'll be more akin to an east based Nina.

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Very interesting post by Amy Butler. Not sure where to post it so will do both.:)

 

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On 28/04/2016 at 10:11 AM, BornFromTheVoid said:

Looks like La Nina may be on it's way for the summer, very little warm water remaining now.

hkV21n1.gif

HputmEz.gif

 

Interestingly those ensembles suggest there's a risk we may not hit a technically 'strong' Nina. Would bode very well for winter if we can not dip too much below -1.

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14 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Interestingly those ensembles suggest there's a risk we may not hit a technically 'strong' Nina. Would bode very well for winter if we can not dip too much below -1.

What is quite remarkable for me is that we look like entering La Nina territory already in June!

But yes, after a sharp increase it seems to stabilise in moderate levels.

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20 minutes ago, karyo said:

What is quite remarkable for me is that we look like entering La Nina territory already in June!

But yes, after a sharp increase it seems to stabilise in moderate levels.

Karyo..

Yep, I agree. In terms of the figures as shown by Nouska above it could end up looking like the 1997-2000 situation again, (only in terms of the numbers). It needs only  a little bit more amplification in terms of a deeper La Nina, and it will be remarkably similar.

I hope that this doesn't extend to the same effects on our own weather!!!

 

 

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Just now, Midlands Ice Age said:

Karyo..

Yep, I agree. In terms of the figures as shown by Nouska above it could end up looking like the 1997-2000 situation again, (only in terms of the numbers). It needs only  a little bit more amplification in terms of a deeper La Nina, and it will be remarkably similar.

I hope that this doesn't extend to the same effects on our own weather!!!

 

 

Yes M.I.A, we have to keep an eye in the ENSO forecasts over the summer for what to expect in the Autumn and winter. Certainly a different picture to how things were looking a couple of months ago.

One difference with the 1997-2000 period is that solar activity was higher then while now we are already in quiet levels and on the journey towards minimum.

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

One difference with the 1997-2000 period is that solar activity was higher then while now we are already in quiet levels and on the journey towards minimum.

The 97/98 Nino was at solar minimum     Solar%20Cycle%2023.png

Looking at quick transitions from Nino to Nina (during summer), 2010 would be a good fit but as there are so many other factors to take into consideration, I doubt it would be of much help in second guessing any synoptic pattern.

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4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The 97/98 Nino was at solar minimum     Solar%20Cycle%2023.png

Looking at quick transitions from Nino to Nina (during summer), 2010 would be a good fit but as there are so many other factors to take into consideration, I doubt it would be of much help in second guessing any synoptic pattern.

1997 was a minimum but the 1997-2000 was at a higher phase than we are now. Look at the levels that were reached by the year 2000. Avery sharp increase to maximum.

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

1997 was a minimum but the 1997-2000 was at a higher phase than we are now. Look at the levels that were reached by the year 2000. Avery sharp increase to maximum.

Some of the newer research that has been linked in the Strat. thread points to a greater likelihood of negative NAO in the first three years of up-slope in the solar cycle - greater than that of the down-slope. I'm guessing this is because it takes a while for the energetic particle activity the research is based on to wind down; that aspect is still active even though the SSN is dropping fast.

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3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Some of the newer research that has been linked in the Strat. thread points to a greater likelihood of negative NAO in the first three years of up-slope in the solar cycle - greater than that of the down-slope. I'm guessing this is because it takes a while for the energetic particle activity the research is based on to wind down; that aspect is still active even though the SSN is dropping fast.

That's interesting. However, the 1997-2000 had very little -NAO to speak of at least during the winter months.

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

That's interesting. However, the 1997-2000 had very little -NAO to speak of at least during the winter months.

Indeed! Just goes to prove how difficult anticipating the weather type is. :D

There was no SSW in the winter of 97/98 - how much difference would that have made to the following spring and early summer? Reading the link written by Amy Butler, the strongest and earliest final warming in the (limited) record - what impact will that continue to have during summer and could these wave patterns reappear as soon as cold season returns to the NH.

 

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15 hours ago, Nouska said:

Indeed! Just goes to prove how difficult anticipating the weather type is. :D

There was no SSW in the winter of 97/98 - how much difference would that have made to the following spring and early summer? Reading the link written by Amy Butler, the strongest and earliest final warming in the (limited) record - what impact will that continue to have during summer and could these wave patterns reappear as soon as cold season returns to the NH.

 

Interesting point and certainly something which was seen during 10/11 before Nina spoilt things.

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Update to the 2nd..

1.2: -0.3

3.4: 0.8

 

Monthly change (11th April-2nd May)

1.2: -1.6

3.4: -0.5

 

At the current rate we can expect negative anomolies in 1.2 to outweigh positive anomolies in 3.4 by months end. By the end of June we will see negative anomolies persist through both 1.2 and 3.4. 

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29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Update to the 2nd..

1.2: -0.3

3.4: 0.8

 

Monthly change (11th April-2nd May)

1.2: -1.6

3.4: -0.5

 

At the current rate we can expect negative anomolies in 1.2 to outweigh positive anomolies in 3.4 by months end. By the end of June we will see negative anomolies persist through both 1.2 and 3.4. 

Thanks. So since last week, there has been a slight increase in 1.2 and a decrease in 3.4

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I am curious as to how much impact La Nina can have when the cold equatorial waters are embedded within a generally much warmer than average SST environment each side.

I expect that the impact on equatorial convection (namely, the Walker Cell and the behaviour of equatorial trapped Kelvin Waves) is not altered that much? I've not had time to read into La Nina events yet so I'm not sure how the ITCZ typically responds - does it shift further away from the equator, toward warmer SSTs?

Thanks in advance for responses on this subject :hi:

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Maybe this year we will actually get a seasonal bloody autumn for a change?? If there is a weak/moderate  nina.

Edited by sundog

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On 5/5/2016 at 10:22, Singularity said:

Regarding the +PDO it's interesting that this paper suggests the Nina will force it negative the stronger it gets, not the other way around in a muting way.

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