Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

If I recall correctly, there was some very cold and foggy weather in late October/ early November and a failed attempt at a BFTE during the run-up to Christmas...That was about it, I think? :)

 

The second half of January 98 was pretty blocked with high pressure over the UK rather than in a favourable position for northerlies or easterlies. There were quite a few cold misty days with useless temperatures between 0 and 4 celsius. I think February started cold as well before the rest of the month turned very mild indeed. The main deeply unpleasant period was between Christmas and about January 10th from what I remember.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's a little out of date (up to Oct 11th). That WWB has passed, and was very strong. Looks like another weaker one coming up further east.

 

suRnozm.gif

 

Which tallies with an eastward forecast shift in (negative anomaly) upper level velocity potential:

 

post-2478-0-27312400-1444830534_thumb.jp

 

Week 2 MJO forecast definitely showing some coherence in the Indian Ocean and GFS simulated products picking this up:

 

post-2478-0-73620400-1444830544_thumb.jp

 

This MJO wave is not without some considerable interest. If it manages to stay coherent over the next few weeks, and propagate eastwards, angular momentum will ramp up again, and give more assistance to surface warming in the central Equatorial Pacific.

 

Lots of interest also to see whether October's MEI value breaks the magic +3SD only achieved by 1982 and 1997.

Edited by Paul
Fixed quote
  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As someone who is not clued up on this subject,what does the above mean re surface weather in our locale at that timeframe?

Thanks for being understanding.

Edited by joggs
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Which tallies with an eastward forecast shift in (negative anomaly) upper level velocity potential:

 

attachicon.gifvp200_GFS_anom_KELVIN_5S-5N.jpg

 

Week 2 MJO forecast definitely showing some coherence in the Indian Ocean and GFS simulated products picking this up:

 

attachicon.giftwc_globe_mjo_vp200.jpg

 

This MJO wave is not without some considerable interest. If it manages to stay coherent over the next few weeks, and propagate eastwards, angular momentum will ramp up again, and give more assistance to surface warming in the central Equatorial Pacific.

 

Lots of interest also to see whether October's MEI value breaks the magic +3SD only achieved by 1982 and 1997.

Would that reinforce the likely November ENSO H500 anomaly pattern or disrupt it, Stewart? I have seen some suggestions on twitter that it could lead to some kind of disconnect and shift the longwave pattern somewhat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it would certainly make life interesting Ed. A strong wave push through the maritime would generate a stark pressure gradient across the Asian massif and inject a surge of westerlies across the Pacific. That would normally amplify the tropospheric wave pattern, and probably set about feedback loops in the stratosphere. Intuitively that would suggest wave breaking through Alaska and counter to the El Niño expectation.

But that is highly speculative at this stage, as the main issue will be the destructive forcing from ENSO w/r/t the MJO around phases 3 and 4 through 5 and 6, which so far this summer and autumn has been spectacularly effective.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What would the composites be for them phases?

And am I right in saying,the more amplitude the better?

Sorry if these are basic questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well it would certainly make life interesting Ed. A strong wave push through the maritime would generate a stark pressure gradient across the Asian massif and inject a surge of westerlies across the Pacific. That would normally amplify the tropospheric wave pattern, and probably set about feedback loops in the stratosphere. Intuitively that would suggest wave breaking through Alaska and counter to the El Niño expectation.

But that is highly speculative at this stage, as the main issue will be the destructive forcing from ENSO w/r/t the MJO around phases 3 and 4 through 5 and 6, which so far this summer and autumn has been spectacularly effective.

Day 10 on latest ECM run does push that pressure through strat wise with a trop induced split upto 30 hPA through NPAC region. Hmmm

Like 87 and 02 - see Anthony Masiellos tweet on this decoupling of ENSO with large MJO wave!

Edited by chionomaniac
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

01 OCT        2.8

07OCT2015  2.7 
14OCT2015  2.5 

 

May be temporary but for those who want this peaking in region 3.4 (west based), Nino 1.2 has been cooling all month. 

 

Personally i think the fact it's so warm still (basin wide) will negate any west based forcing somewhat (small gradient between 1.2 and 3.4) in terms of atmospheric response but we can always hope that 1.2 collapses quickly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nino 3.4 region anomaly now up to +2.5C, putting into the same ranks as the mega 82/83 and 97/98 El Ninos.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Both of which weren't cold winters for the UK and 1997/98 especially was very mild overall, while 1982/83 had a lower CET for DJF. 

 

Just an observation, not trying to imply that a strong El Nino means a mild winter for the UK!!  :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nino 3.4 region anomaly now up to +2.5C, putting into the same ranks as the mega 82/83 and 97/98 El Ninos.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Still an intriguing 'relative' cooling in the Nino 1+2 region i.e currently 2.2C, which looks like it's down from around 2.7C at the start of Oct. Certainly the 1+2 region is showing more variation than the 3.4, but that may be normal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still an intriguing 'relative' cooling in the Nino 1+2 region i.e currently 2.2C, which looks like it's down from around 2.7C at the start of Oct. Certainly the 1+2 region is showing more variation than the 3.4, but that may be normal. 

 

Interesting indeed although too strong to produce a west based Nino pattern i think. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Modoki El nino now forming

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Modoki El nino now forming

I thought it was still warming slightly in that area?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought it was still warming slightly in that area?

Drop off ovet the last few dyas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Drop off ovet the last few dyas

 

Got a link to the latest data?

 

The latest update here (2nd Nov)  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf shows a cooling of the 1.2 region over October, but a slight rise back near the end of the data presented.

 

What temp range in the 1.2 region would give the El Nino a Modoki classification?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got a link to the latest data?

 

The latest update here (2nd Nov)  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf shows a cooling of the 1.2 region over October, but a slight rise back near the end of the data presented.

 

What temp range in the 1.2 region would give the El Nino a Modoki classification?

 

Latest SST anomaly  ....  anomw.11.2.2015.gif

 

The last time there was a definite Modoki - same date in 2009   ......  anomw.11.2.2009.gif

 

Yes, 1-2 cooled during October but not enough (yet) for any Modoki classification. .... nino12.png

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Modoki El nino now forming

 

1.2 still too warm even if cooling slowly now. It's basin wide for now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got a link to the latest data?

 

The latest update here (2nd Nov)  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf shows a cooling of the 1.2 region over October, but a slight rise back near the end of the data presented.

 

What temp range in the 1.2 region would give the El Nino a Modoki classification?

 

Not sure there's an official limit but if we take the Nov-March data of the 09/10 Nino then you can see (for me, region 1.2 needs to fall below 1)..

 

Nov

1.2: 0.5

3.4: 1.5

 

Dec

1.2: 0.3

3.4: 1.7

 

Jan

1.2: 0.3

3.4: 1.5

 

Feb

1.2: -0.1

3.4: 1.2

 

Mar

1.2: -0.4
3.4: 1
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Nino 3.4 index has jumped 0.3C in the last 2 weeks, and is now nearing the peak values seen in the 1997/98 Nino. However, with yet another warm kelvin wave getting going and ocean heat content nearing the highest values yet again, it's possible we could see further warming over the next few weeks.

 

BnXOtv2.png uNK0vET.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any explanations for why we are seeing such a strong el nino warming this year? What are the likely factors and causes etc... is it simply due to lack of data of past events why this year's is predicted to be equal to or higher than the strongest one of 97/98..

 

We seem to live in an age where we are recording record this and record that..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any explanations for why we are seeing such a strong el nino warming this year? What are the likely factors and causes etc... is it simply due to lack of data of past events why this year's is predicted to be equal to or higher than the strongest one of 97/98..

 

We seem to live in an age where we are recording record this and record that..

 

Global warming innit!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

YbjmBqf.jpg

 

From Hybrid/Full Basin El Nino...

 

JN4PkZx.jpg

 

...to - erm - CP La Nina? Or are they usually like this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...