Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

    With regards to the 97/8 nino does anyone know what phase other factors were in eg QBO, PDO etc.  Will the overall global pattern influence be the same?  I seem to have a view in back of my mind that strong El Nino isn't a cold winter bringer for UK/NW Europe?  Any thoughts or facts folks that dispel those fears

     

     

     

    regards

     

    BFTP

     

    The QBO was +ve and transitioned to -ve during the second half of the winter. The PDO was +ve all the way through which is pretty normal for El Nino, particularly strong ones. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.6k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    With regards to the 97/8 nino does anyone know what phase other factors were in eg QBO, PDO etc.  Will the overall global pattern influence be the same?  I seem to have a view in back of my mind that strong El Nino isn't a cold winter bringer for UK/NW Europe?  Any thoughts or facts folks that dispel those fears

     

     

     

    regards

     

    BFTP

     

    A few similarities as Supercell shows - the PDO is much more positive currently and the solar output is a little higher (97/98 was just exiting minimum).

     

    What may be a wild card as far as analogues are concerned is the state of Arctic ice: a very low figure to end this melt season and a big loss in the areas where research has indicated an impact on mid-latitude circulation patterns. This will be a good test for the ice loss theory as it goes up against the established composites of very warm SST tropical forcings.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Cheers guys, the jetstream positioning/behaviour may play a part as may the SSTs in Atlantic and the 'overall' quieter solar cycle which seems to be descending now from its double peak.   Current west QBO won't assist favourably in general, clearly PDO hand in glove.  

     

     

     

    kind regards

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Great graph from bigB over on the sea ice forum. It shows the upper oceans heat anomalies for the equatorial Pacific for this year and previous moderate and strong El Ninos.

     

    jOC6SAo.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The last kelvin wave is now beginning to surface, bringing anomalies of +4C up with it. At the same time, the little cold blob in the east has now disappeared.

     

    wkxzteq_anm.gif

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness
  • Location: Shoeburyness

    Great graph from bigB over on the sea ice forum. It shows the upper oceans heat anomalies for the equatorial Pacific for this year and previous moderate and strong El Ninos.

     

    jOC6SAo.png

     

    Interesting to note, some people are mentioning extremes, in regards to this winter.

     

    Out of the above graph.

    3 extremes to note out of 7 years.

    1987 best snowfall and cold I can remember in Jan

    1991, very heavy snow south east/east in feb.

    1997 extreme lasting cold in Holland and for while here I think.

    This is south east based though, cant remember other years above.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest ENSO update from the BOM is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

     

    The tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, maintaining a strong El Niño that is likely to persist into early 2016. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by well over 1 °C, and at levels not seen since the 1997–98 event. In the atmosphere, tropical cloudiness has shifted east, trade winds have been consistently weaker than normal, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is strongly negative.
    Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to peak towards the end of 2015. Typically, El Niño is strongest during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Seems we've just had another big westerly wind burst, with more to come over the next week.

     

    tRlFmzV.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The current WWB is looking even more powerful now and longer lasting. 

     

    DQmkxGo.gif

     

    Also, the warm waters are continuing to surface, with those 2 and 3C+ anomalies covering more and more of the surface.

     

    fsBzXpW.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Some models are suggesting the MJO will move into phase 1 or 2 as a result.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    IDO posted this webinar video in the model thread, it's really interesting and a lot of good information about ENSO types so thought it would be useful here.

     

    https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom

     

    AUN3Oya.png

     

    In the question session at the end, he comments tha wQBO and strong Nino are likely to preclude a negative NAO - I've not read about that - anybody else have the research that points to this conclusion.

     

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest ensemble forecast from the Met Office, with most showing El Nino going super during the next few months, a real threat to 1997/98 now.

     

    nino34_anom_20151001.png

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Latest ensemble forecast from the Met Office, with most showing El Nino going super during the next few months, a real threat to 1997/98 now.

     

    nino34_anom_20151001.png

     

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina

    The memories of that Winter sends shivers down my spine BFTV

     

    A  very mild Winter with frequent euro highs post-2026-0-35871900-1444477196_thumb.gi

     

    A cet of 6.1C

     

    A cold lovers nightmare that was.

    Let's hope other influences can work in favour of something different this coming Winter.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    The memories of that Winter sends shivers down my spine BFTV

    A very mild Winter with frequent euro highs attachicon.gifcompday.SfgeVPTPPO.gif

    A cet of 6.1C

    A cold lovers nightmare that was.

    Let's hope other influences can work in favour of something different this coming Winter.

    atlantic sst anomaly was very different back then

    1997-

    post-12336-0-78823400-1444478683_thumb.g

    now-

    post-12336-0-68423400-1444478723_thumb.g

    a possible game changer this time round?

    i should add- north pacific very different as well

    Edited by bobbydog
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    atlantic sst anomaly was very different back then

    1997-

    attachicon.gifanomnight.10.4.1997.gif

    now-

    attachicon.gifanomnight.10.8.2015.gif

    a possible game changer this time round?

    i should add- north pacific very different as well

    And so are they all 'very different', bobbydog. Which is why, IMO, attempting to base LRFs on one particular ENSO-situation might be a fool's errand? :D  

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    In terms of winter prediction, given the current ENSO state, we pretty much have one winter to use as an analogue, not exactly much to go on in the end for us.

    That said, looking at the 1997/98 winter anomaly, there is a major concern for me, notably the anomaly is very, very close to the predictions coming out of the US for north America (Canadian block, with Canada and the northern states of the US being dry and quite mild whilst the south is unsettled and colder than average).

    That said it doesn't mean it will be guaranteed to be mild or cold over here, though given the likely resulting Atlantic trough I suspect any cold this winter is much more likely to come from the east rather than the north/north west.

    Anyway I shall stop here as this is straying into a topic more favoured elsewhere..... 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    i remember 97/98 winter well it was awful.

    but was europe cold at any point in that winter because it might just been the case of unlucky pattern setup but this year so far is ok atm.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    i remember 97/98 winter well it was awful.

    but was europe cold at any point in that winter because it might just been the case of unlucky pattern setup but this year so far is ok atm.

    If I recall correctly, there was some very cold and foggy weather in late October/ early November and a failed attempt at a BFTE during the run-up to Christmas...That was about it, I think? :)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I'm just hoping we see a mild set up for us and NW Europe due to the numbers of folk on foot across the continent a.t.m? Sadly the forecast for the coming period hints at the first 'cold plunge' of the winter arriving?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    From this on Dec 3rd 1997

     

    Rrea00119971203.gif

     

     

    looking good.....but to this on the 6th......urrggh

     

    Rrea00119971206.gif

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Another strong westerly wind burst currently underway in the Pacific. This could be the strongest yet reinforcing the El Nino.

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/u850_c.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Another strong westerly wind burst currently underway in the Pacific. This could be the strongest yet reinforcing the El Nino.

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/u850_c.gif

     

    That's a little out of date (up to Oct 11th). That WWB has passed, and was very strong. Looks like another weaker one coming up further east.

     

    suRnozm.gif

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • Settled, dry spell continues as daytime temperatures edge up a degree or so

      The risk of frost continues and it is chilly out of the sunshine but the fine, dry spell continues this week as the temperatures creep up, closer to average rather than below as they have been. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      2021 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season Outlook

      Samual Hayes explores the trends and the main influencing factors as the Arctic Sea Ice Melt season for 2021 gets underway. Read the full article

      BornFromTheVoid
      BornFromTheVoid
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...