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With regards to the 97/8 nino does anyone know what phase other factors were in eg QBO, PDO etc.  Will the overall global pattern influence be the same?  I seem to have a view in back of my mind that strong El Nino isn't a cold winter bringer for UK/NW Europe?  Any thoughts or facts folks that dispel those fears

 

 

 

regards

 

BFTP

 

The QBO was +ve and transitioned to -ve during the second half of the winter. The PDO was +ve all the way through which is pretty normal for El Nino, particularly strong ones. 

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See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

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With regards to the 97/8 nino does anyone know what phase other factors were in eg QBO, PDO etc.  Will the overall global pattern influence be the same?  I seem to have a view in back of my mind that strong El Nino isn't a cold winter bringer for UK/NW Europe?  Any thoughts or facts folks that dispel those fears

 

 

 

regards

 

BFTP

 

A few similarities as Supercell shows - the PDO is much more positive currently and the solar output is a little higher (97/98 was just exiting minimum).

 

What may be a wild card as far as analogues are concerned is the state of Arctic ice: a very low figure to end this melt season and a big loss in the areas where research has indicated an impact on mid-latitude circulation patterns. This will be a good test for the ice loss theory as it goes up against the established composites of very warm SST tropical forcings.

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Cheers guys, the jetstream positioning/behaviour may play a part as may the SSTs in Atlantic and the 'overall' quieter solar cycle which seems to be descending now from its double peak.   Current west QBO won't assist favourably in general, clearly PDO hand in glove.  

 

 

 

kind regards

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Great graph from bigB over on the sea ice forum. It shows the upper oceans heat anomalies for the equatorial Pacific for this year and previous moderate and strong El Ninos.

 

jOC6SAo.png

 

Interesting to note, some people are mentioning extremes, in regards to this winter.

 

Out of the above graph.

3 extremes to note out of 7 years.

1987 best snowfall and cold I can remember in Jan

1991, very heavy snow south east/east in feb.

1997 extreme lasting cold in Holland and for while here I think.

This is south east based though, cant remember other years above.

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Latest ENSO update from the BOM is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

The tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere are reinforcing each other, maintaining a strong El Niño that is likely to persist into early 2016. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are more than 2 °C above average, exceeding El Niño thresholds by well over 1 °C, and at levels not seen since the 1997–98 event. In the atmosphere, tropical cloudiness has shifted east, trade winds have been consistently weaker than normal, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is strongly negative.
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to peak towards the end of 2015. Typically, El Niño is strongest during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn.
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IDO posted this webinar video in the model thread, it's really interesting and a lot of good information about ENSO types so thought it would be useful here.

 

https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom

 

AUN3Oya.png

 

In the question session at the end, he comments tha wQBO and strong Nino are likely to preclude a negative NAO - I've not read about that - anybody else have the research that points to this conclusion.

 

 

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Latest ensemble forecast from the Met Office, with most showing El Nino going super during the next few months, a real threat to 1997/98 now.

 

nino34_anom_20151001.png

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina

The memories of that Winter sends shivers down my spine BFTV

 

A  very mild Winter with frequent euro highs post-2026-0-35871900-1444477196_thumb.gi

 

A cet of 6.1C

 

A cold lovers nightmare that was.

Let's hope other influences can work in favour of something different this coming Winter.

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The memories of that Winter sends shivers down my spine BFTV

A very mild Winter with frequent euro highs attachicon.gifcompday.SfgeVPTPPO.gif

A cet of 6.1C

A cold lovers nightmare that was.

Let's hope other influences can work in favour of something different this coming Winter.

atlantic sst anomaly was very different back then

1997-

post-12336-0-78823400-1444478683_thumb.g

now-

post-12336-0-68423400-1444478723_thumb.g

a possible game changer this time round?

i should add- north pacific very different as well

Edited by bobbydog
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atlantic sst anomaly was very different back then

1997-

attachicon.gifanomnight.10.4.1997.gif

now-

attachicon.gifanomnight.10.8.2015.gif

a possible game changer this time round?

i should add- north pacific very different as well

And so are they all 'very different', bobbydog. Which is why, IMO, attempting to base LRFs on one particular ENSO-situation might be a fool's errand? :D  

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In terms of winter prediction, given the current ENSO state, we pretty much have one winter to use as an analogue, not exactly much to go on in the end for us.

That said, looking at the 1997/98 winter anomaly, there is a major concern for me, notably the anomaly is very, very close to the predictions coming out of the US for north America (Canadian block, with Canada and the northern states of the US being dry and quite mild whilst the south is unsettled and colder than average).

That said it doesn't mean it will be guaranteed to be mild or cold over here, though given the likely resulting Atlantic trough I suspect any cold this winter is much more likely to come from the east rather than the north/north west.

Anyway I shall stop here as this is straying into a topic more favoured elsewhere..... 

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i remember 97/98 winter well it was awful.

but was europe cold at any point in that winter because it might just been the case of unlucky pattern setup but this year so far is ok atm.

If I recall correctly, there was some very cold and foggy weather in late October/ early November and a failed attempt at a BFTE during the run-up to Christmas...That was about it, I think? :)

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I'm just hoping we see a mild set up for us and NW Europe due to the numbers of folk on foot across the continent a.t.m? Sadly the forecast for the coming period hints at the first 'cold plunge' of the winter arriving?

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Another strong westerly wind burst currently underway in the Pacific. This could be the strongest yet reinforcing the El Nino.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/u850_c.gif

 

That's a little out of date (up to Oct 11th). That WWB has passed, and was very strong. Looks like another weaker one coming up further east.

 

suRnozm.gif

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