E.N.S.O. Discussion

[cheeky_monkey]

Eagerly anticipating 4th August (and folliwing) updates. Will be fascinating to see how our winter pans out this time round.

will be wet and very mild.

[snowy weather]

With parts of the Pacific nearly 5 degrees above average and part of the North Atlantic nearly 5 degrees below, do we have any analogues to how this might impact on Autumn and Winter for North West Europe?

 

Those North Atlantic temps are very impressive.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.27.2015.gif

 

With the North Atlantic 5 degrees below average, surely that will have a very big positive effect on our winter ?

Edited July 30, 2015 by snowy weather

[johnholmes]

There is a very good article in an issue of Weather entitled,

 

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK

Volume 70-Issue 7

 

I am not sure if logging on to the RMetSoc website will allow access to the full article but it is well worth a read if you are able to do so.

One of the items in the discussion paper is SST's and its possible effects along with NAO/AO etc.

Edited July 30, 2015 by johnholmes

[wishfulwinter]

Hi all. Could someone please point me in the right direction for learning more about el nino and associated uk winter weather. For months now I've been reading every scrap of information I can find, but so many articles contradict each other. And also, is it reasonable to presume we will go straight from el nino to la nina next spring? Sorry if questions are somewhat basic, but I didn't know where else to ask. Thank you

Edited July 30, 2015 by wishfulwinter

[johnholmes]

Where is the link John?

 

just type in RMet Soc or Weather-all you will get though is a brief preview. Their copyright makes it impossible for me to post any clips from it. When I get time I will try and paraphrase some of it to prevent me being sued!

[Nouska]

just type in RMet Soc or Weather-all you will get though is a brief preview. Their copyright makes it impossible for me to post any clips from it. When I get time I will try and paraphrase some of it to prevent me being sued!

 

Look forward to your comments. The paper is paywalled but there is an abstract on the University site.

 

http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/38619/

 

Abstract/Summary

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

[knocker]

And a preview

 

http://www.readcube.com/articles/10.1002%2Fwea.2476?r3_referer=wol&tracking_action=preview_click&show_checkout=1&purchase_referrer=onlinelibrary.wiley.com&purchase_site_license=LICENSE_DENIED

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest update from the BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

Overview: 

 

The 2015 El Niño is now well-established and continues to strengthen. In the coming weeks, the central tropical Pacific Ocean (the NINO3.4 region) may exceed the peak values reached during the 2002 and 2009 El Niño events, but current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks. Note that peak values are normally recorded late in the year. Trade winds remain weakened and are likely to contribute to more warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Other indicators such as cloudiness near the Date Line, the Southern Oscillation Index, and sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain typical of an established El Niño.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another ENSO update, this time from the NASA Earth Observatory website: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86341

[summer blizzard]

MEI value fell by 0.09 (statistically within margin of error) however it was the second highest for the time of year (improvement from June when it was third), this suggests we may still challenge 83 for second place.

[summer blizzard]

Both 1+2 and 3.4 got warmer in July (basin wide but biased to east based) however we've seen some slight cooling in the extreme east popping up which may also support those thinking of a more west based Nino eventually.

 

[johnholmes]

 

Look forward to your comments. The paper is paywalled but there is an abstract on the University site.

 

http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/38619/

 

Abstract/Summary

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

 

 

To be honest I cannot improve on the Summary you posted. The most significant for cold lovers on here is that usually there is a -ve NAO. Perhaps even more significant is the lack of SW flow, by which I suppose they mean a fairly non mobile Atlantic. predicting it will remain the main issue no matter what pointers are used. We saw this last year with so many predictions based on the snow situation in the autumn and we all know what happened in the UK. It is fun though trying to outsmart the professionals so long as folk do not get too up tight when things do not go as they want/hope.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Upper ocean heat content has reached a new high for this year.

 

[Singularity]

The MJO seems to have been doing the tropical weather equivalent of 'faffing about' lately, and the models have been all over the place with respect to what it gets up to next.

 

I notice today has seen it move into phase 6, in a way that only UKMO (currently AWOL from the plots, ironically enough) has managed to foresee (I've been tracking the MJO outlooks daily for the past two weeks):

 

 

Increased convective support in the W. Pacific could give rise to another burst of frantic cyclone activity with associated WWBs possible. It's now a question of whether the models are right about a sudden switch to decaying mode and later emergence in the W. Hemisphere/Africa.

 

It would be far more interesting if we got something like UKMO was predicting - a strong phase 6 event. Then we could have some fun figuring out why the rest of the models were hopeless   

Edited August 7, 2015 by Singularity

[Nouska]

According to Gibby in the model thread the ecm has the best verification record of all models.

 

You gave me the same response in a recent post about the MJO; see here  ....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/?p=3241188

 

The reality is that the ECM was way off the mark in the direction of travel.

 

Forecast on 31st July.

 

 

 

What works as a rule of thumb for general NWP output does not encompass all apects of forecasting.

[johnholmes]

According to Gibby in the model thread the ecm has the best verification record of all models.

 

That is for the northern hemisphere synoptic models. Nothing to do with the MJO forecasts.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

Any idea if the fall back in Antarctic sea ice to 'average' levels is tied in with the forming Nino impacts or is it just a 'natural switch' ?

[Singularity]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

Any idea if the fall back in Antarctic sea ice to 'average' levels is tied in with the forming Nino impacts or is it just a 'natural switch' ?

 

Not 100% on this but I attended some seminar speeches last year which spoke of Antarctic sea ice increasing over the past couple of decades due to the fact that a warmer climate simply means added moisture yet still well below freezing across the continent... there was then this idea that one day a critical temperature threshold would be reached, at which point the effect of added frozen precipitation is overwhelmed by increased SSTs, so preventing the extra ice extent expansion from taking place.

 

So perhaps it's something along those lines. Or there may be some intense storms involved. Or it could be something else entirely - I'm not in a position to draw conclusions on this to a scientific standard.

 

Edit: hang on, just located a map of SST anomalies. If anything they're a nudge below the LTA along much of the Arctic sea ice edge. Bang goes the theory...? 

 

Edited August 8, 2015 by Singularity

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi guys,

Just made a post in the Arctic Ice thread discussion possibly along the same lines as these last 2 posts.

You clearly seem to think that ENSO is the process that could be affected by warming.

I too have noticed that the southern ocenas have had persistent low sst's for the last few months on a daily basis, but the monthly figures always seem to come out warmer?

I promise I hadn't seen these postings when I added my comments on the Arctic thread as I was out all yesterday and I am just catching up!

Interesting that Singularity thinks his theory is bust based upon on one days data.

I think it could still hold water!

I think the more general point I am making on the other thread is that is it possible that as a result of ice differences in ice extent between the two hemispheres that in some way the albedo changes will effect the earth's albedo and hence cause changes (possibly via the ENSO?) to the world's climate?.

MIA

Edited August 9, 2015 by Ed Stone
Removed stuff that has nowt to do with El Nino Southern Oscillation.

[Relativistic]

I can't say I think Antarctic ice extent has seen an increase due to increased moisture content in the atmosphere. If this were the case then before Arctic ice started declining, would we not have seen a spike in ice extent, until temperatures reached that critical point at which the increased moisture had no effect because SSTs were too high?

The growth in Antarctic ice extent seems to have stalled, but looking back at previous record high years the same thing seems to have happened at various points, only this time round it's more prolonged. Maybe El Nino is amplifying synoptics that inhibit ice growth?

Edited August 9, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[wishfulwinter]

Hi Midlands ice age. Could you put a link up for artic ice thread as everytime I try to go to it I'm getting 'sorry, not found. Thank you

Edited August 9, 2015 by wishfulwinter

[BornFromTheVoid]

I can't say I think Antarctic ice extent has seen an increase due to increased moisture content in the atmosphere. If this were the case then before Arctic ice started declining, would we not have seen a spike in ice extent, until temperatures reached that critical point at which the increased moisture had no effect because SSTs were too high?

The growth in Antarctic ice extent seems to have stalled, but looking back at previous record high years the same thing seems to have happened at various points, only this time round it's more prolonged. Maybe El Nino is amplifying synoptics that inhibit ice growth?

 

 

I posted a reponse to this in the linked thread, so as not to take things too far off topic https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74403-arctic-ice-how-does-it-influence-our-weather/?p=3243952

 

Hi Midlands ice age. Could you put a link up for artic ice thread as everytime I try to go to it I'm getting 'sorry, not found. Thank you

 

You can access the climate area here https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/105-climate-change-the-science/

 

Arctic sea ice thread is here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82872-arctic-sea-ice-discussion-2015-the-melt-season/

 

You have to be logged in to access the threads though

[Singularity]

...

Interesting that Singularity thinks his theory is bust based upon on one days data.

I think it could still hold water!

...

 

By the power of the emoticon I was trying to suggest that it could be bust... depending on whether the anomalies persist, as you say 

 

I can't say I think Antarctic ice extent has seen an increase due to increased moisture content in the atmosphere. If this were the case then before Arctic ice started declining, would we not have seen a spike in ice extent, until temperatures reached that critical point at which the increased moisture had no effect because SSTs were too high?

The growth in Antarctic ice extent seems to have stalled, but looking back at previous record high years the same thing seems to have happened at various points, only this time round it's more prolonged. Maybe El Nino is amplifying synoptics that inhibit ice growth?

 

I figured the presentation considered the gradual climb over the past 20 years to be from from the moisture feedback (punctured by the occasional stalls that you mention).

 

I'm aware, though, that the ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture doesn't increase linearly with increased temperature... the rate is far greater. So perhaps a more pronounced spike ought to have occurred if the above theory is anywhere close to the mark.

 

 

In light of all this, the notion that El Nino is simply amplifying the detrimental synoptics, resulting in a larger bite out of the apple, so to speak, is an inviting one. an assessment of recent synoptics in comparison to the 'norm' would be of great interest - if I ever get the time, I'll give it a shot  

[wishfulwinter]

Thanks MIA

[knocker]

The 2015 continues strengthening, up to 1.9C in the weekly Niño 3.4- an uncommonly high August value

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CMDJBzUUYAAg8zF.mp4