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  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Well throughout the 'spring barrier' it was showing 97/98 type temps but now we are exiting the barrier things are going loopy!

     

    As a weather site I'd expect this thread to get quite busy over the coming months!!!!

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    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    nino34Mon.gif

     

     

    Never known them change the scale on these  maps before????

     

    That chart does make me feel a tad uneasy.  I know the CFSv2 tends to over predict, but you can't help but feel something is brewing.  It will be interesting to see how things pan out over the coming months, but if the other models start to edge towards the CFS scenario, I will start to become a little concerned! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Bureau of Meteorology in Australia (BOM) has now moved in line with the US agencies in declaring an El Nino to be in progress.

     

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    So if folk take into account the near nino conditions we have seen this past 12 months then the amount of energy that a 'strong nino', and a year of near nino conditions takes is mind boggling!

     

    Though I suppose all the island nations in the area where ENSO builds it 'warm pool' have been reporting record high sea levels for a few years now ( above and beyond global average rises) so we knew there was a lot of energy being stored for a time when the atmosphere gave way and flopped into supporting nino?

     

    My concern is that the conditions that built this 'warm pool' are also the ones that helped bury heat in the upper 700m of Ocean so do we stand to see some of that stored energy also come into play as it leaches out into the atmosphere above?

     

    With folk now drawing direct comparisons with the 98' 'Super' it would also be wise to look at how the world has altered over that period with ever more GHG's to trap heat and drops in total sea ice cover over the long daylight summer days just as China begins to clean up it particulate pollution and so reduce dimming.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    I haven't really studied el nino much.. But what I do get from the charts being posted, is this will be one seriously strong El nino event.. 

     

    We don't really know much what effects this does have on us here all the way over the other side of the planet.. But it does impact us.

     

    We know it has impacts closer to home.

     

    I think we should really really monitor this as a globe to see and research what happens.

     

    If previous events are anything to go by, winter 2015/16 could put some winters to shame  :spiteful:

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    El Nino Could Lead To Harsh Winter For Britain

     

    A significant rise in water temperature in the Pacific Ocean is likely to have a major impact on the world's weather over the coming months, Australian experts have warned. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the eastern Pacific is in the early stages of a "substantial" El Nino event, the first in five years. The rising water temperature alters wind and rainfall patterns and is likely to lead to drought in Australia, drier conditions in Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, and floods on the Pacific coast of the Americas.

     

    It could also result in a harsh winter for the UK; during the last El Nino in 2009/10, Britain suffered heavy snowfall. David Jones, a climatologist at the Bureau, which has been on the look-out for the event, said: "This will be quite a substantial El Nino event. "This isn't a weak one, or a near miss as we saw last year." An El Nino starts when warm Pacific waters shift to the east and the trade winds that normally bring rain to Australia and Asia peter out.

     

    The Bureau expects the weather disruption to peak in the Southern Hemisphere's spring and early summer and last until February. It also said 2015 is now likely to be the warmest year on record, topping the highs of 2014. The scientists stressed that while an El Nino increases the likelihood of significant weather disruption, other factors could modify the effects.

     

    http://news.sky.com/story/1482534/el-nino-could-lead-to-harsh-winter-for-britain

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    So the "could lead to harsh winter for Britain" was made up by the news team, as no scientist said anything of the sort... *sigh.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Sadly we may well be in for a crop of 'sensationalist drivel' if nino does build into a strong event and drive global extremes...............

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    JMA model also going off scale in Nino prediction: this is unusual for this agency, normally quite conservative in ensemble prediction.

     

    Updated outlook.  http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/gif/c_ens_gr_oni.gif

     

    c_ens_gr_oni.gif

     

    A tad concerning that the JMA is also going for a super strong Nino like the CFSv2.  Not what I wanted to see, especially if they're normally conservative with their predictions!  

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Id rather have a very strong Nina next winter, wouldn't normally ever say that but we might somehow slosh some colder water Northwards and end up getting rid of that high that's ruined the last 2 years weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I don't care if we have a Nino or Nina next winter but i want that +PDO gone.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and stormy.
  • Location: East Hull, East Yorkshire

    A very strong Nina could change things a bit im sure, but here in the UK as most are! will there be any impact if anything....long range?

     

    Cheers. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    I don't care if we have a Nino or Nina next winter but i want that +PDO gone.

    Unfortunately I don't think there's much chance of that changing anytime soon?

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    Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

    That  2016 Tahoe Local season pass for Kirkwood, Heavenly and Northstar California isn't looking such a mad investment after all!! History is bigger the the Nino, the bigger the dumps on the Sierras and after four years of worsening severe drought, they need a hell of a big winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

    I think the PDO its likely to stay +ve during the summer however it may wane slightly in comparison with recent months before strengthening again providing the El Nino follows suit.

     

    Will be interesting to see how summer pans out, with a -qbo and a strong positive pdo combination I personally think we'll see a mid-atlantic trough and euro high set up for most the summer with the trough drifting west every so often but thats just my humble opinion. I don't favour winter being cold despite some of the suggestions floating around today. The last +ve qbo winter with an el nino was 2006/07.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I think those record high winter PDO numbers had some influence from the Feb KW as it pushed up the U.S. coast. If true then this series of warm pulses will also arrive to strengthen the positive PDO over the Autumn/winter months?

     

    If the Triple R is what is driving 'the blob' then we may need to look at Sea ice over on the Pacific side of the basin come Sept as its extent may well be what is driving the Jet around the ridge and into the trough over the eastern states ( as per Prof Francis) . The down side of this is that the KW that fed the blob is now entering the basin via the Alaskan Current so may well negatively impact ice cover over Beaufort/East Siberian over summer meaning the loopy jet will again present us with another year of Triple R and so elevated temps over the PDO pushinmg us even longer into the current PDO+ve phase??? 

    Edited by Gray-Wolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    I think those record high winter PDO numbers had some influence from the Feb KW as it pushed up the U.S. coast. If true then this series of warm pulses will also arrive to strengthen the positive PDO over the Autumn/winter months?

     

    If the Triple R is what is driving 'the blob' then we may need to look at Sea ice over on the Pacific side of the basin come Sept as its extent may well be what is driving the Jet around the ridge and into the trough over the eastern states ( as per Prof Francis) . The down side of this is that the KW that fed the blob is now entering the basin via the Alaskan Current so may well negatively impact ice cover over Beaufort/East Siberian over summer meaning the loopy jet will again present us with another year of Triple R and so elevated temps over the PDO pushinmg us even longer into the current PDO+ve phase??? 

     

     

    Are we not in a cold phase of the PDO? Yet the last couple of years have seen a positive PDO. Natural variability does occur in any phase, but it seems unusual if the +PDO persists any longer.. anyone explain what is causing the cold phase to behave like this.. answers please.

     

    I've read cold phase of PDO and solar minima periods can increase likelihood of cold winters markedly, if this is the case and we see a reversion back to the cold phase then we the chances of a colder winter surfacing will increase during each of the next 4-5 winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    An easy answer is that PDO-ve has run its course and we are witnessing both PDO and IPO flipping into their positive phases. We have never seen the high values we copped over winter whilst in PDO-ve 'inter-phase' only when we are in positive

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    An easy answer is that PDO-ve has run its course and we are witnessing both PDO and IPO flipping into their positive phases. We have never seen the high values we copped over winter whilst in PDO-ve 'inter-phase' only when we are in positive

    That is not strictly true Gray....if we accept the PDO flipped negative after the last super NIno, the winter of 02/03 saw a very positive phase in what was the negative cycle.

    It just reinforces that PDO not as cyclical as some of the research would indicate.

     

    o7bRCCe.png

     

    ** Derived from OI.v2 SST fields

    A graphic comparing monthly PDO values for 1982-2002 derived from the v1 and v2

    sst products is available at

    http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/v1v2PDOComp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    That is not strictly true Gray....if we accept the PDO flipped negative after the last super NIno, the winter of 02/03 saw a very positive phase in what was the negative cycle.

    It just reinforces that PDO not as cyclical as some of the research would indicate.

     

    o7bRCCe.png

     

    ** Derived from OI.v2 SST fields

    A graphic comparing monthly PDO values for 1982-2002 derived from the v1 and v2

    sst products is available at

    http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/v1v2PDOComp.png

     

    Seems to me that the 00-09 should be considered neutral given the equal warm and cool years. This decade looks thus far to be 4-1 (this year probably makes it 4-2) for cold. The real cool period was 07-13.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    That is not strictly true Gray....if we accept the PDO flipped negative after the last super NIno, the winter of 02/03 saw a very positive phase in what was the negative cycle.

    It just reinforces that PDO not as cyclical as some of the research would indicate.

     

    o7bRCCe.png

     

    ** Derived from OI.v2 SST fields

    A graphic comparing monthly PDO values for 1982-2002 derived from the v1 and v2

    sst products is available at

    http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/img/v1v2PDOComp.png

     

    If you look at the Jan/feb/march 15 figures you'll see what I was angling at? e do see positive 'phases' within negative cycles but we have never seen such high positive values when a cycle was negative? Is this due to random natural forcings or is there a warming fingerprint in there (Triple R forcing) ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    A round up of the ensemble means of the main ENSO models. Courtesy of Phil Klotzbach's twitter.

     

    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach

    KxuQfwc.png

     

     

    He's also shown the latest ECM plume with other Ninos to highlight how extreme the forecast is.

     

    I9fqeuk.jpg

     

    Latest CFS is backing off the heat in region 1+2 for October and keeping the large anomaly out in area 3+4

     

    afvKIcX.gif  

     

    Could we be looking at a very warm Modoki type event - if so, the hysterics of the press may yet be on the right trail of a cold European winter - just not the correct reasoning.

     

    https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83135-strong-el-nino-now-forecast-how-will-it-impact-the-weather/?p=3202467

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