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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Our recent wave definitely looks a bust with a neutral pattern definitely in the offing.

     

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    See http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z Huge uncertainty however, re scope of any teleconnection for UK winter 16-17 (models still yet to confidently resolve re ENSO neutra

    Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

    The reasons why these three key strong El Nino years, 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1997/98 differed so much in their atmospheric responses is very interesting.   Purely on ocean surface / subsurface data, a

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Well I'm waiting for the next KW to push out?

     

    If we are following recent 'patterns' then late Jan/early Feb will see a whopper push out ( like past years?) but this time the Trades, now becoming less bullish, will not squish things in June/July and so we will see atmospheric cooperation develop?

     

    But if we do see this occur what of the rest of the 'warm pool' out west? Will it ease back into the central Pacific under gravity alone ( no longer penned up by the anomalous Trades?) will we suddenly see a huge modoki develop?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Well I'm waiting for the next KW to push out?

     

    If we are following recent 'patterns' then late Jan/early Feb will see a whopper push out ( like past years?) but this time the Trades, now becoming less bullish, will not squish things in June/July and so we will see atmospheric cooperation develop?

     

    But if we do see this occur what of the rest of the 'warm pool' out west? Will it ease back into the central Pacific under gravity alone ( no longer penned up by the anomalous Trades?) will we suddenly see a huge modoki develop?

     

    I don't think the pattern is annual so i doubt there will be a large warm wave like 2014, indeed i would have thought that it would have laid the foundations for a warmer wave but that's not what we saw.

     

    I suspect things will slowly cool for now before a stronger kelvin wave during the summer and Autumn as we get the +QBO and no real La Nina on the horizon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Well I think I'm seeing the first signs that gravity is winning out over the recent years of enhanced trades? As such we are starting to see Modoki like temps across the west of the regions?

     

    There is just to much warmth in that anomalous 'warm pool' for us not to see it impact once it is no longer held in place by strong trades?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I'm seeing nothing inspiring yet. We have a large area of warm water to the west, we have very cold water to the east. I suspect neutral. 

     

    wkteq_xz.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    The JISAO PDO value for January is out, and at +2.45 it was by far the most positive January on record. As well as that, the last 5, 4, 3 and 2 month periods have all been the most positive on record.

    This 30 year cold/-ve phase is looking very much in doubt now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    The folk holding out for the 30 year cool PDO will just call the next ten years a 'phase within a phase......... you always get periods of positive/negatives inside the ongoing phase....' (LOL!)

     

    Surely the relationship between ENSO and PDO demands the longer the PDO stays positive the more likely we are to see a Nino form?

     

    Whilst still negative two Ninas formed that turned out to be the warmest Ninas we've measured. I wonder if this hints at temps when we see a Nino under strong PDO positive?

     

    EDIT: it appears that you never see two 2.0+ figures , back to back, during a negative phase of the PDO ? odd that.........

    Edited by Gray-Wolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

    I find it interesting that this El Nino struggled to get going and is pretty much vanishing before really getting anywhere, I wonder if its the atmosphere not really playing ball and wanting to go back into a more La Nina state or after that massive kelvin wave last spring there was nothing for a few months and the momentum was lost until the autumn, or a combination of both.  

     

    The the strength of the +ve PDO I think can be explained mostly by the kelvin waves. Please excuse my rather amateur annotations. post-7021-0-90676600-1424606989_thumb.pn

     

    Looking back at last year the PDO was only weakly negative prior to January which is when we saw that huge kelvin wave appear, (think it appeared just before January). Following that the PDO gradually became quite strongly positive by May. In the early summer when the kelvin wave finished it was followed by a brief lull, which saw the PDO values drop during June, July & August before a further round of kelvin waves appeared during the late summer onwards and another sharp increase in the PDO was seen and we had the weak El Nino forming. 

     

    post-7021-0-49059200-1424606997_thumb.pn

     

    The large values of the PDO to me suggest that we should be seeing a strong ENSO event but whatever seems to be watering down the effects of the El Nino isn't necessarily having the same impact on the PDO, possibly? 

     

    I'm not an expert and I don't know the full answers but thats just my humble thoughts and thought i'd put my two pence worth in. But if this is true then I doubt we are seeing a longterm trend emerge and it could just be a blip in an otherwise prolonged -ve state and once these kelvin waves weaken and stop we may well see the PDO swing back to a -ve state, knockers post suggests the atmosphere is starting to tip that way again, bit early to jump to conclusions though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    I'm thinking that the triple 'R' (ridiculously resilient ridge) over the west coast US/Alaska is what is behind the PDO values ( or a least a strong push to them?). With China reducing particulate pollution over the same period maybe we are seeing a reduction in 'dimming' under the High too?

     

    The leap of faith is accepting that models with low sea ice as we have seen post 07' also drives a ridge/trough in the positions we have seen it over the past couple of years. If low sea ice is making it more likely to see such a configuration then we might expect that PDO will also bump positive as the high increases sunny days and higher sst's over the PDO region?

     

    Then what of ENSO? will it keep the relationship to PDO ( more Nino's under PDO positive) if PDO is being driven by the triple R which is in turn being driven by ice melt across the Arctic? 

     

    As it stands all we know is that a Nino is more likely under PDO +ve forcings and that we are now into our second year of PDO positive ( with no foreseeable reason that it should end any time soon?) with a big warm pool out in the west of the Enso regions. If the trades continue lighter than of late then some of that warm pool will slosh back into the central regions giving us a modoki flavoured Nino. If atmosphere plays ball then there is a lot of warm water in that warm pool to  fuel quite a nino???

    Edited by Gray-Wolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    I find it interesting that this El Nino struggled to get going and is pretty much vanishing before really getting anywhere, I wonder if its the atmosphere not really playing ball and wanting to go back into a more La Nina state or after that massive kelvin wave last spring there was nothing for a few months and the momentum was lost until the autumn, or a combination of both.  

     

    The the strength of the +ve PDO I think can be explained mostly by the kelvin waves. Please excuse my rather amateur annotations. attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-20 at 23.55.10.png

     

    Looking back at last year the PDO was only weakly negative prior to January which is when we saw that huge kelvin wave appear, (think it appeared just before January). Following that the PDO gradually became quite strongly positive by May. In the early summer when the kelvin wave finished it was followed by a brief lull, which saw the PDO values drop during June, July & August before a further round of kelvin waves appeared during the late summer onwards and another sharp increase in the PDO was seen and we had the weak El Nino forming. 

     

    attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-20 at 23.52.48.png

     

    The large values of the PDO to me suggest that we should be seeing a strong ENSO event but whatever seems to be watering down the effects of the El Nino isn't necessarily having the same impact on the PDO, possibly? 

     

    I'm not an expert and I don't know the full answers but thats just my humble thoughts and thought i'd put my two pence worth in. But if this is true then I doubt we are seeing a longterm trend emerge and it could just be a blip in an otherwise prolonged -ve state and once these kelvin waves weaken and stop we may well see the PDO swing back to a -ve state, knockers post suggests the atmosphere is starting to tip that way again, bit early to jump to conclusions though. 

     

    Supercell...

    You  may be an amateur  in this discussion , but you have presented the facts very accurately without any hint of bias.

     

    You are correct,   Once again it hasn't happened. as many were hopecasting, in that  last year GW (in the main)  was extolling the virtues of the upcoming large El nino as a game changer for the climate.

     

     We are in no man's land at the moment. No-one has the knowledge to accurately predict (particularly without bias) which way the ENSO will trend in the next 12 months.

     

    As for discussions on  the further  outlook for ENSO, I believe 90% of it is wishcasting   No harm in that, but it shouldn't be presented as a fait accompli. 

     

    MIA.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    I find it interesting that this El Nino struggled to get going and is pretty much vanishing before really getting anywhere, I wonder if its the atmosphere not really playing ball and wanting to go back into a more La Nina state or after that massive kelvin wave last spring there was nothing for a few months and the momentum was lost until the autumn, or a combination of both.  

     

    The the strength of the +ve PDO I think can be explained mostly by the kelvin waves. Please excuse my rather amateur annotations. attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-20 at 23.55.10.png

     

    Looking back at last year the PDO was only weakly negative prior to January which is when we saw that huge kelvin wave appear, (think it appeared just before January). Following that the PDO gradually became quite strongly positive by May. In the early summer when the kelvin wave finished it was followed by a brief lull, which saw the PDO values drop during June, July & August before a further round of kelvin waves appeared during the late summer onwards and another sharp increase in the PDO was seen and we had the weak El Nino forming. 

     

    attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-20 at 23.52.48.png

     

    The large values of the PDO to me suggest that we should be seeing a strong ENSO event but whatever seems to be watering down the effects of the El Nino isn't necessarily having the same impact on the PDO, possibly? 

     

    I'm not an expert and I don't know the full answers but thats just my humble thoughts and thought i'd put my two pence worth in. But if this is true then I doubt we are seeing a longterm trend emerge and it could just be a blip in an otherwise prolonged -ve state and once these kelvin waves weaken and stop we may well see the PDO swing back to a -ve state, knockers post suggests the atmosphere is starting to tip that way again, bit early to jump to conclusions though. 

     

    The PDO turned positive in January last year, 2 months before the large Kelvin wave developed. The state of SSTAs across the equatorial Pacific play a role in determining the PDO value, so as the SSTs across the region have changed, they have altered the PDO values slightly too.

     

    We can also see that a new large kelvin wave has recently developed and is already supporting subsurface anomalies of >4C in parts, which looks like the biggest warm wave since the record breaker last spring. It will be another month or so before this surfaces, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on, as last years large wave surface into Nina like water, where as things are already much warmer this time around.

     

    6FsZzri.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Hi BFTV!  

     

    Enough folk have now told me that a broken clock is still right twice a day for me to no longer bother when i'm likened to one! That said I did say , up thread, to expect another large KW to push out ( this is a month behind my imaginings but close enough!) but that with a years worth of 'better' Pacific conditions ( a drop in the excessive trades and over a year of positive PDO readings) we stand a better chance of seeing atmospheric cooperation develop this year?

     

    The record 'warm pool' is still there so there is still no shortage of fuel for a strong, or long, nino event to take place. What it will also do is lengthen this period of positive naturals and so keep global temps running on the warm side.

     

    Another one worth keeping an eye on!

     

    EDIT: M.I.A. it appears we didn't need the nino to see change occur? Record warm year with many individual months coming in as record months and a PDO in strong positive values!

    Edited by Gray-Wolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest ENSO outlook is here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

     

    The Nino 3.4 index remains at 0.5 and the upper ocean heat content is increasing climbing steeply once more due to the large warm kelvin wave.

     

    Iw02kXm.png?1

     

    Iw02kXm.png?1

     

    The PDO region still has a text book classic reverse C of warm anomalies across the north Pacific, indicative of a very strong +ve PDO.

     

    fiJXdHr.gif

     

     

    Interesting times. With the continued warm/neutral conditions, I think we can expect global temps to remain in the top 3 on record for the next few months at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    seeing forecasts for WWB's in early March now so that KW is seeing a bit of support? Enough to start a move toward atmospheric cooperation through April/May?

     

    The PDO situation is pretty odd? I know we see excursions into opposite signs during phases but these values are so high compared to all other non positive phase values?? I did think we were due to flip positive ( and said as much) but I imagined a faltering move to positive values not this headlong rush into plus 2 values ( over winter??)

    Edited by Gray-Wolf
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    The JISAO PDO value for January is out, and at +2.45 it was by far the most positive January on record. As well as that, the last 5, 4, 3 and 2 month periods have all been the most positive on record.

    This 30 year cold/-ve phase is looking very much in doubt now.

     

    But that in itself is a puzzler because the signals 5 years ago did point to the beginning of the next cool phase - and the data going back nearly 100 years now shows distinct blocks of + and -. Since 2000 the PDO seems to have see sawed.

     

    I hate to ask the question in case of a frenzied response... but have to ask it really. Is there an AGW element which might explain the see saw state of the PDO other than arctic ice melt? And if arctic ice melt is the form horse in terms of trying to understand the strong north pacific ridge then are we suggesting that arctic ice melt may possibly be able to override the natural PDO induced signal?

     

    And extrapolating further.... can we guess what might happen if this melt induced driver is layed on top of a "naturally" + PDO in another 20 years??

     

    Hmmm. Where does arctic ice go from here? 

     

    Final question because I am a novice here. Do we have any idea where these kelvin waves come from? Are they random or cyclical?

    Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    But that in itself is a puzzler because the signals 5 years ago did point to the beginning of the next cool phase - and the data going back nearly 100 years now shows distinct blocks of + and -. Since 2000 the PDO seems to have see sawed.

     

    I hate to ask the question in case of a frenzied response... but have to ask it really. Is there an AGW element which might explain the see saw state of the PDO other than arctic ice melt? And if arctic ice melt is the form horse in terms of trying to understand the strong north pacific ridge then are we suggesting that arctic ice melt may possibly be able to override the natural PDO induced signal?

     

    And extrapolating further.... can we guess what might happen if this melt induced driver is layed on top of a "naturally" + PDO in another 20 years??

     

    Hmmm. Where does arctic ice go from here? 

     

    Final question because I am a novice here. Do we have any idea where these kelvin waves come from? Are they random or cyclical?

     

    Some seem to think the PDO went negative after the 98 El Nino, others think 2006 was the time. Really the phases can't be called with any accuracy until they're over.

    The thing with the roughly 30 year cycle, is it only seemed somewhat clear from about 1940 on. Before that there isn't much of a clear phase length at all.

     

    Since 1900

     

    4QSKZ3e.png

     

    Since 1660

     

    fig3-lg.jpg

     

    The average phase length is around 20 years, but this varies considerably.

     

    As for the connection with AGW or sea ice... well that's something I'm sure the experts are working on, so really nothing I or what anyone else say here can have much substance.

     

    The warm kelvin wave occur because of Westerly Wind Bursts across the equatorial Pacific. You usually have strong easterly trade winds across the region which causes a build of of warm waters toward the west, where the ocean level is nearly half a meter higher than in the east. When the easterlies weaken or temporarily reverse, the parts of the warm pools form a subsurface wave that travels eastward and eventually surfaces. WWBs can happen due to normal variations in weather patterns, but are often boosted when the MJO phases is located over the western Pacific.

     

    http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2002/05mar_kelvinwave/

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/biondi2001/biondi2001.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    It's interesting to speculate but perhaps this decade will simply see a return to neutral/balanced phases after the negativity of the last one. My opinion is that the last cycle was indeed 98-13 when one considers that only 02/03 could be at all construed as neutral or positive.

     

    That being said, we've also seen unusual ENSO events. 2010 saw a strong Nino turn into the second strongest Nina. 2012 saw an epic fail for Nino. 2014 saw an epic fail for Nino. Something does seem odd.

    Edited by summer blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Anomalies from the new kelvin wave now over 5C in a small pocket, with the overall anomaly continuing to grow.

     

    K1RHQb0.gif

     

    AGir2hy.gif?1

     

    We're still seeing westerly winds too around the dateline (that looks like continuing into March) , which will send more warm water down into the subsurface and ensure a steady supply of upwellling warm waters of the next few months.

     

    hBWIC6g.png

     

     

     

     

    Will it, won't it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Talk of continued WWB's into March are now combining with a couple of favourable MJO forecasts hinting at the atmosphere now wanting to play ball? Maybe an interesting couple of months ahead?

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest ENSO update is here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

     

    That kelvin wave continues to grow, with upper ocean heat content increasing still.

     

    LVTKUbk.png

     

    6NqVwjw.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I notice the forecast for a strong phase 7 MJO event. Is the convection over our warm blob or near Indonesia.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    Michael Ventrice has posted a blog about the SOI forecast.

     

    http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/the-southern-oscillation-index-could-drop-into-the-3-to-4-sigma-territory-during-the-11-15-day-period/

     

    This might be a more interesting period to watch for a stronger El Nino. I commented in the model thread that March '97 was the closest analogue to the very amplified forecast for the MJO - add that to the forecast SOI and the very positive PDO - maybe a goer this year.

     

    CFS tropical mode projections in the link below.

     

    http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php

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    Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

    Hi Nouska! 97' did not have the scale of warm pool that we currently have sitting out west? The aborted 2010 Nino showed us just what that energy supply can do to even such a stunted Nino so what will it do if the atmosphere allows all that energy back into the climate system?

     

    It always troubled me that some folk lauded the slowdown in atmospheric temps when we could see that all of the incoming energy was not then leaving the system (but being stored somewhere), now we might be about to feel why it was folly to look at the faux pause as a 'good thing' and not view it as very worrying!

     

    We are currently seeing the lowest sea ice figure ( maybe even maxed out in Feb?????) so what will a nino mean for sea ice min?

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