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E.N.S.O. Discussion


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Mmm another poorly written and misleading statement by the Met office 'spokesman' - El Nino is associated with colder than average winters?... mmm not sure this is correct the super El Nino of 1997/1998 coincided with a notably mild snowless zonal winter.

 

As others have said, it is always a combination of factors which together increase the chances of a colder than average winter - not one single factor and certainly not ENSO.

 

I fear we will be reading a lot of headlines with such statements through the autumn.

 

Also my understanding the forecast is for a moderate El Nino at best - possibly a weak-moderate El Nino, certainly nothing on the scale of a major El Nino, if the case, then other factors such as PDO state, QBO state etc etc will no doubt have a far greater influence on winter patterns this year.

 

 

Just because it's associated with cold winters, doesn't mean every winter with El Nino will be cold, just that the chances are increased. They didn't say it was the only thing to consider either.

"El Nino is associated with colder than average winters, but is only one of the players that determine the weather"

 

Something I posted in the technical teleconnective papers thread back in April, which supports the Met Office statement.

 

 

Skilful Long Range Prediction of European and North American Winters

 

Until recently, long range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter north Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near surface temperature and wind speed; all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

 

http://onlinelibrary...059637/abstract

 

The paper itself describes the ENSO, QBO, North Atlantic Gyre heat content and Kara sea ice as key teleconnections for the North Atlantic winter, According to them, El Nino, warm subpolar gyre, low Kara Sea ice, and easterly QBO, each tend to favour -ve NAO condition, while the opposite forms contribute to +ve NAO conditions.

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Just because it's associated with cold winters, doesn't mean every winter with El Nino will be cold, just that the chances are increased. They didn't say it was the only thing to consider either.

"El Nino is associated with colder than average winters, but is only one of the players that determine th

e weather"

Something I posted in the technical teleconnective papers thread back in April, which supports the Met Office statement.

 

 

Skilful Long Range Prediction of European and North American Winters

 

Until recently, long range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter north Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near surface temperature and wind speed; all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability.

 

http://onlinelibrary...059637/abstract

 

The paper itself describes the ENSO, QBO, North Atlantic Gyre heat content and Kara sea ice as key teleconnections for the North Atlantic winter, According to them, El Nino, warm subpolar gyre, low Kara Sea ice, and easterly QBO, each tend to favour -ve NAO condition, while the opposite forms contribute to +ve NAO conditions.

 

Unsurprising that it supports the Met Office statement as the authors are Met Office scientists  :)

Here's a press release at the time - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/long-range-advances

One facet you didn't mention was stratospheric processes - their model uses full atmosphere ocean coupling and SSW are known to be more frequent in El Nino and La Nina years than neutral years.

 

But it is a domino effect of teleconnections because European climate is poorly correlated to El Nino.

Edited by Interitus
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The bad and the good news for El Nino..

 

Bad..

 

3.4 daily is actually marginally negative (though being east based at +1.x in 1.2 this is not massively important)

Sub-surface anomalies are about to dip below 3C even in the east, this is quite a rapid fall in temperature since March (and suggests that region 1.2 and 3.4 will continue to fall)

 

Good..

 

As seen below, we are about to get another pulse of warm water moving east to reinforce the existing warm anomalies. This should ensure that 3.4 warms but if the pulse is weak, El Nino will definitely not develop.

 

Posted Image

 

I'd expect El Nino to be weak as things stand, the strength of pulse will dictate whether we go further than that.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

EN... SO?

 

Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center haven’t declared El Niño conditions, even though the Niño3.4 index is currently around 0.5°C above normal, and has been for the past two months. What’s the hold up? In short, we’re waiting for the atmosphere to respond to the warmer sea-surface temperatures, and give us the “SO†part of ENSO.

 

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/en-so

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Latest weekly shows 1.2 down to 1.1C and 3.4 down to 0.3C.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest weekly shows 1.2 down to 1.1C and 3.4 down to 0.3C.

 

Yep, without the reinforcement from more WWBs and subsequent warm kelvin waves, those values should continue falling over the next few weeks. 

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Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex

How do we know the new pocket of warm water in the western equatorial is just recycled from the previous downwelling kevin wave and is this normal. Im really really new to all this so would really apprechiate any explananation. Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

El Niño indicators ease

Issued on Tuesday 29 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other. As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.

 

While the chance of an El Niño in 2014 has clearly eased, warmer-than-average waters persist in parts of the tropical Pacific, and the (slight) majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for spring. Hence the establishment of El Niño before year's end cannot be ruled out. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

 

Given the current observations and the climate model outlooks, the Bureau’s ENSO Tracker has shifted to El Niño WATCH status. This means the chance of El Niño developing in 2014 is approximately 50%, which remains significant at double the normal likelihood of an event.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

not looking good at all for el nino with temp anomalies like this under the surface and cool anomalies already appearing at the surface

 

post-18233-0-90823100-1406816139_thumb.gpost-18233-0-32819600-1406816153_thumb.g

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

It is remarkable how the very warm pool has just faded away but I guess that's what happens when the ocean and atmophere do not synchronise to maintain the momentum.

 

From what I've seen, all the very warm seasonal long range model suites are predicated on a moderate Nino being in place, will be interesting to see if the next runs change the outlook for Autumn.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

it really does beg the question as to what leads ocean or atmosphere. Many here thought the atmosphere would follow and reinforce the ocean leading to a very strong el nino but perhaps the decline in solar activity has meant the atmosphere has acted in thelead and as a result we see a decline to either a weak el nino which will b every short lived. So much for the doom and gloom trumpted by some not many weeks ago!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

it really does beg the question as to what leads ocean or atmosphere. Many here thought the atmosphere would follow and reinforce the ocean leading to a very strong el nino but perhaps the decline in solar activity has meant the atmosphere has acted in thelead and as a result we see a decline to either a weak el nino which will b every short lived. So much for the doom and gloom trumpted by some not many weeks ago!!!

 

Have you read any of Gerald Meehl's work? He postulates that the solar cycle produces an ENSO type rhythm of its own and can enhance regular ENSO state - not mentioned, but could it also interrupt?. The only problem, as I see it, things don't seem to be going according to the plan of his models. 

Allowing for lag periods aside, we are seeing the opposite of what he suggests in this paper.

 

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/810/solar-cycle-linked-global-climate-drives-events-similar-el-ni-o-la-ni

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

i read somewhere I cant remember where and I really wish I could but it said that when the sun goes quiet it affects the heating of the oceans and in turn affects how the atmosphere couples so I suspect that solar activity does have something to do with why el nino has failed to deliver this time even with such a big warm pool and possibly why as well in recent years when you hear people talking about other things like the strat they talk of there being disconnects in recent years.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see things go into a la nina state by the time winter comes around.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

i read somewhere I cant remember where and I really wish I could but it said that when the sun goes quiet it affects the heating of the oceans and in turn affects how the atmosphere couples so I suspect that solar activity does have something to do with why el nino has failed to deliver this time even with such a big warm pool and possibly why as well in recent years when you hear people talking about other things like the strat they talk of there being disconnects in recent years.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see things go into a la nina state by the time winter comes around.

 

The monster El Nino of 97/98 occurred during a period of low solar activity (specifically the transition from SC22 to SC23). 

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

The monster El Nino of 97/98 occurred during a period of low solar activity (specifically the transition from SC22 to SC23). 

 

 

yeah but that was between cycles this is a totally different beast all together this is a hybernative (don't even think that's a word) state so the sun is acting all together differently than it would during a lull between one cycle and another and at a far extended timescale as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

yeah but that was between cycles this is a totally different beast all together this is a hybernative (don't even think that's a word) state so the sun is acting all together differently than it would during a lull between one cycle and another and at a far extended timescale as well.

 

The metrics haven't changed though: solar flux, TSI, etc. We've just passed solar max so activity has been higher than it was then.

 

Maybe the sun is entering a Maunder-style state, but that's something for the future. Is there any historic data showing suppressed El Ninos during the MM?

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

The metrics haven't changed though: solar flux, TSI, etc. We've just passed solar max so activity has been higher than it was then.

 

Maybe the sun is entering a Maunder-style state, but that's something for the future. Is there any historic data showing suppressed El Ninos during the MM?

 

There has certainly been research on the subject but inconclusive and contradictory would be my summing up.

 

The Quinn El Nino index.

 

Posted Image

 

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/data/quinn/

 

One 2012 paper.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0101.1

 

Whole raft of solar cycle research listed here - maybe something else somewhere.

 

http://chrono.qub.ac.uk/blaauw/cds.html

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Incredible, we had +4C anomolies just a month ago in the right of the image.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Continued cooling this week in Nino 1.2 and 3 regions.

 

.......Nino....1+2.. 3...3.4...4

23JUL2014  1.6  0.5 -0.1 0.2

30JUL2014  0.6  0.2 -0.1 0.3

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interestingly even if El Nino develops it now looks like it would be west based. Other than been a boon for the CFS, west based in 04 and 09 produced good winters after.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Interestingly even if El Nino develops it now looks like it would be west based. Other than been a boon for the CFS, west based in 04 and 09 produced good winters after.

 

Well, 2004/05 wasn't a particularly good Winter, although the 2nd half of February produced some great synoptic patterns only to be greatly spoiled by an exceptionally mild Europe.  Winter 2009/10, now you're talking!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well, 2004/05 wasn't a particularly good Winter, although the 2nd half of February produced some great synoptic patterns only to be greatly spoiled by an exceptionally mild Europe.  Winter 2009/10, now you're talking!

Jan was poor but December saw plenty of topplers, we just lacked cold pooling. Being at over 100m asl that easterly was brilliant here.
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

We have a new warm kelvin wave at the moment, so that will be worth keeping an eye on as we move into Autumn. It's nothing like the record breaking warm wave seen back in Spring, so should the atmosphere cooperate this time, a moderate Nino is likely to be the upper limit.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Cheers sam for filling us in this probably explains why the weather is in the state its in currently. Don't think the QBO tanking negative is helping either.

 

No worries. I just posted this the dungeons know as the climate and environment area, but it might be of interest here. The link at the bottom gives an good overview, suitable for people without much knowledge on paleoclimatology.

 

A 10,000 year history of ENSO using clam shells!

 

Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific

 

Understanding the response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to global warming requires quantitative data on ENSO under different climate regimes. Here, we present a reconstruction of ENSO in the eastern tropical Pacific spanning the last 10 thousand years (ka) derived from oxygen isotopes in fossil mollusk shells from Peru. We find that ENSO variance was close to the modern level in the early Holocene and severely damped ~4-5 ka. In addition, ENSO variability was skewed toward cold events along coastal Peru 6.7-7.5 ka owing to a shift of warm anomalies toward the Central Pacific. The modern ENSO regime was established ~3-4.5 ka. We conclude that ENSO was sensitive to changes in climate boundary conditions during the Holocene, including, but not limited to insolation.

 

An overview of the paper is here, with some interesting findings.

http://phys.org/news...history-el.html

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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