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E.N.S.O. Discussion


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest ENSO update puts the Niño 3.4 value at +0.5, so this is, potentially, the start of the El Niño.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Came across this earlier today,

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifoni.jpg

whats intruiging about it is the strong el nino years since 1950 are the spikes gradually get higher yet further apart in terms of years...so would it be sensible to assume a trend there and assume a possible record year.

what I cant really fathom from it also is during strong el nino years did we have hot summers or very cold snowy winters? or just typically british weather fare

 

 

taking the years from that chart and the monthly mean values from the met office site

 

strong el nino events

 

winter D/J/F/M 1st year J/J/A  2nd year J/J/A 

 

57/58 4.5  3.4 4.7 3.7   15.2  16.3  15.4   14.1  15.9  15.8

65/66  4.7 2.9 5.7 6.5 14.7  14.0  14.9 15.4  15.0  14.7

72/73 5.8 4.5 4.3 6.2   11.8  15.6  15.1   14.8  15.6  16.5

82/83 4.4 6.7 1.7 6.4 15.5  16.5  15.7   14.4  19.5  17.3

97/98 5.8 5.2 7.3 7.9 14.1  16.7  18.9   14.2  15.5  15.9

 

moderate el nino events

 

winter D/J/F/M   1st year J/J/A 2nd year J/J/A

 

51/52   5.5 2.7 3.4 6.6   14.0  16.3  14.8 14.4  16.8  15.8

63/64  2.6 3.4 4.5 4.3 14.9  15.2  14.3  13.8  16.1  15.5

68/69 3.0 5.5 1.0 3.3   14.8  15.0  15.4 13.9  16.8  16.4

86/87  6.2 0.8 3.6 4.1 14.8  15.9  13.7 12.8  15.9  15.6

87/88 5.6 5.3 4.9 6.4   12.8  15.9  15.6 14.4  14.7  15.2

91/92 4.7 3.7 5.4 7.5   12.1  17.3  17.1  15.7  16.2  15.3

94/95 6.4 4.8 6.5 5.6 14.5  18.0  16.0 14.3  18.6  19.2

02/03 5.7 4.5 3.9 7.5   14.4  16.0  17.0  16.1  17.6  18.3

09/10 3.1 1.4 2.8 6.1   14.8  16.1  16.6 15.2  17.1  15.3

 

now la nina events to see what affects they have on the monthly mean

 

strong la nina events

 

  winter D/J/F/M 1st year J/J/A   2nd year J/J/A

 

73/74 4.9 5.9 5.4 5.8   14.8  15.6  16.5 13.9  15.2  15.2

75/76  5.3 5.9 4.5 4.8 14.7  17.4  18.7 17.0  18.7  17.6

88/89  7.5 6.1 5.9 7.5   14.4  14.7  15.2 14.6  18.2  16.6

99/00  5.0 4.9 6.3 7.6   13.9  17.7  16.1 15.1  15.5  16.6

10/11  -0.7 3.7 6.4 6.7   15.2  17.1  15.3 13.8  15.2  15.4

 

 

moderate la nina events

 

winter D/J/F/M 1st year J/J/A   2nd year J/J/A

 

55/56  5.4 3.6  -0.2 6.2 13.8  17.7  18.1 13.1  15.8  13.5

70/71  4.3 4.5 4.5 4.9 16.4  15.2  16.0 12.4  16.9  15.6

98/99  5.5 5.5 5.3 7.4 14.2  15.5  15.9 13.9  17.7  16.1

07/08  4.9 6.6 5.4 6.1   15.1  15.2  15.4  13.9  16.2  16.2

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Might be of interest.

 

El Niño’s high-altitude highway Weather shaper affects Europe via the stratosphere

 

May 14, 2014 | Researchers and forecasters have long known that El Niño can influence weather thousands of miles away. It now appears that this Pacific Ocean phenomenon exerts its global impact through two different atmospheric pathways, one located miles above the other. Scientists are now mapping out these routes, which will help bolster prediction of regional climate.

 

http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/features/11590/el-nino-high-altitude-highway

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I personally suspect a similar strength to 2006 and 2010 is more likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

May 19, 2014:  Every ten days, the NASA/French Space Agency Jason-2 satellite maps all the world's oceans, monitoring changes in sea surface height, a measure of heat in the upper layers of the water.   Because our planet is more than 70% ocean, this information is crucial to global forecasts of weather and climate.

Lately, Jason-2 has seen something brewing in the Pacific—and it looks a lot like 1997.

"A pattern of sea surface heights and temperatures has formed that reminds me of the way the Pacific looked in the spring of 1997," says Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "That turned out to be the precursor of a big El Niño."

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Certainly hard to argue against anything weaker than a moderate peak now.

 

One factor which looks like it may well screw chances of beating 1997 though is that despite the western pacific as a whole having a head start both the SOI and sea temperatures around Australia lend themselves to easterly wind bursts which will likely prevent any stupid warming in the western Pacific even it's positive as a whole. It would not suprise me if the El Nino peaked east based.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Gavin Partridge's latest enso video - would have posted it earlier but haven't logged in for ages until a few days ago.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0s59td-QLc

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

El Nino starting to show very well now on the SST anomaly chart:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

 

Looks like it could be a very strong one.

 

2015 to be the global warmest on record?  It would be hard to bet against it. 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Looks like the PDO will be staying in positive territory for the foreseeable future?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The MEI has jumped into Nino territory, 

 

Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic ENSO-neutral conditions

 

Posted Image

 

In the context of ENSO-neutral conditions from August-September 2013 through earlier this year, this section features a comparison figure with persistent ENSO-neutral conditions for at least six bimonthly MEI values and ending in close proximity to the ranking of January-February 2014 MEI. Longer-lived neutral conditions (such as 1959-61) could only enter once into this comparison figure.

The updated (April-May) MEI has gone up 0.8 sigma in just one month, now at +0.93. This increase is the 2nd biggest on record for this time of year. In fact, its current ranking has gone up to 24 ranks to reach the 7th highest value for this time of year, vaulting straight into high moderate El Niño rankings from solid ENSO-neutral territory last month. The long anticipated breakthrough to El Niño conditions in 2014 is clearly under way, leading to the next question of how big it will get. Of the 10 nearest-ranked April-May values, five had clearly come up to this level over the previous three months. Among those five, four continued at El Niño levels through the rest of the year, while one (1993) dropped back to borderline neutral conditions by the end of the year. One (2002) ended up as a weak-to-moderate event, while the other three (1957, 1987, and 1997) are classified as strong El Niño events in the MEI sense. In other words, the simple-minded odds for El Niño remain at or above 80% through the remainder of 2014, and are consistent with previous discussions on this website. The odds for a strong El Niño are perhaps slightly higher than before, somewhere around 60%
 
 
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

If the MJO Forecast is to be believed then we look set for another bout of WWB's in late June early July? That would confirm that we are now in a Nino.

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

 

Mike Ventrice is a genius, his own site is a treasure trove of MJO data, having re built his own MJO Index, he is the first port of call among mets for Kelvin Waves and MJO initiation. Excellent blog.

 

MJO forecast from Adrian Matthews ties in with WWBs thoughts in blog.

post-7292-0-13540500-1402240317_thumb.pnpost-7292-0-64036600-1402240315_thumb.gi

 

Constructed analog CP El Nino, plus a little something for winter :)

post-7292-0-51034200-1402239729_thumb.gi post-7292-0-88206900-1402239774_thumb.gi

 

Didn't realise that ocean SST and SSTA's have been added to Earthschool. Great fun this page..

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-132.56,7.99,512

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Interesting article from the Gaurdain about El Nino - correlates with obvious climate anomalies, corals, fish migration and......war apparently??!

 

 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/11/-sp-el-nino-weather-2014

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Pacific Ocean remains primed for an El Niño in 2014

 

Issued on Tuesday 17 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

 

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.

 

Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Niño 1+2 region anomaly (just offshore S. Am) spiked to +2.1ºC this week. Highest since the week of June 10, 1998. pic.twitter.com/1tXcjrk5A8

 

 

yes but heat content is on the drop so doesn't look like any super nino it will probably be a weak to moderate nino overall

 

post-18233-0-69462200-1403606592_thumb.g

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