E.N.S.O. Discussion

[knocker]

And the SOI

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

Edited April 23, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

The animation below is the SSTAs across the equatorial Pacific, from April 3rd and April 23rd.

 

 

The ENSO 3 and 4 regions have remained relatively stable, but there's been a big warm up in the 1 and 2 regions (just off the Ecuadorian coast), taking all regions into positive anomaly territory. The rapid warming of the ENSO 1 and 2 region has only occurred in the last few days, and suggests that the warm Kelvin wave is surfacing more quickly now.

[knocker]

Helds thoughts on Dynamic retardation of tropical warming http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog/isaac-held/2014/04/24/45-dynamic-retardation-of-tropical-warming/ â€¦

[Summer Sun]

Slow slosh of warm water across Pacific hints El Niño is brewing - http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/slow-slosh-warm-water-across-pacific-hints-el-ni%C3%B1o-brewing

[bryan629]

Hers a recent blog from Paul Hudson

For the first time since 2009, computer simulations are suggesting that an El Nino event is likely as we head into the second half of this year.

El Nino is the name given to describe an upwelling of warmer than average water in the Equatorial Pacific, and is known to disrupt climate patterns around the world.

During previous El Nino events, much wetter winters have occurred in Southwest USA.

For California, the developing El Nino will therefore be very welcome news as the state has recently suffered the worst drought on record due to a chronic lack of rainfall.

Amongst other areas which will be affected is Northern Australia, where drought conditions are expected.

El Nino is also associated with warm and very wet weather during summer months along the coast of northern Peru, for example.

As for Europe and the UK, the consequences of El Nino are much less clear.

Research suggests that the main impact is more likely to be felt in winter, causing colder, drier conditions in Northern Europe, and wetter, milder winters through southern Europe and the Mediterranean.

During the last El Nino of 2009/2010, the winter across northern Europe, including the UK was exceptionally cold.

But there are many other variables which affect Europe’s climate and there was a deep, protracted solar minimum at the same time, which is known to increase the likelihood of colder winters.

And despite El Nino of 2006/2007, Europe’s winter was mild.

One of the other main consequences of the predicted El Nino later this year would be to boost global temperatures.

It could mean either 2014 or 2015 will become the hottest year globally on record.

One way of the other, El Nino will certainly have the potential to grab the headlines later this year.

Heres the latest image from Noaa

[knocker]

Kevin Trenberth on Coming El Nino

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly ENSO update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Nino 3.4 index up to +0.4 in the last week, and all ENSO regions are currently showing positive values.

[bryan629]

Came across this earlier today,

whats intruiging about it is the strong el nino years since 1950 are the spikes gradually get higher yet further apart in terms of years...so would it be sensible to assume a trend there and assume a possible record year.

what I cant really fathom from it also is during strong el nino years did we have hot summers or very cold snowy winters? or just typically british weather fare

[jeffie]

Hi there,

 

I'll be honest and state that I only really ever start to look at these pages in the run up to Glastonbury Festival, although it is all fascinating.

 

Do you think there is likely to be an impact on the Summer in the UK as per the "HEATWAVE" splashed across the tabloids?

 

Thanks

 

J

[knocker]

Hi there,

 

I'll be honest and state that I only really ever start to look at these pages in the run up to Glastonbury Festival, although it is all fascinating.

 

Do you think there is likely to be an impact on the Summer in the UK as per the "HEATWAVE" splashed across the tabloids?

 

Thanks

 

J

 

No.

[jeffie]

No.

 

That's me told then lol.

 

Cheers

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The warming in the Nino 1 and 2 regions, off the coast of Ecuador, continues at an impressive pace. The animation below used Apr 23rd and 30th

 

[Gael_Force]

The warming in the Nino 1 and 2 regions, off the coast of Ecuador, continues at an impressive pace. The animation below used Apr 23rd and 30th

 

 

Very impressive on graphic display.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Very impressive on graphic display.

 

 

Interesting graph. The 1.2 line would probably be above 1 if that was up to the 30th.

 

Now we just have to wait for the warm water to slosh back toward the 3.4 region we'll be closer to an official El Nino.

[knocker]

Watch as warm water builds across equatorial Pacific over last 3mo. Developing El Niño anim:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif â€¦

Edited May 5, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest ENSO update from the BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

 

The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.

 

 

The CPC weekly update can be viewed here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[knocker]

The PDO has gone sharply positive as of early May. Could help magnify the effects of the coming El Niño.

 

pic.twitter.com/UhQu42Yo5N

[Yarmy]

The PDO has gone sharply positive as of early May. Could help magnify the effects of the coming El Niño.

 

pic.twitter.com/UhQu42Yo5N

 

As I understand it the PDO index depends on ENSO, so it can't magnify it: it's just another measure of the same underlying physical phenomenon.

 

The PDO is dependent upon ENSO on all timescales. To first order, the PDO can be considered the reddened response to both atmospheric noise and ENSO, resulting in more decadal variability than either. 

 

http://courses.washington.edu/pcc587/readings/newman2003.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

 

As I understand it the PDO index depends on ENSO, so it can't magnify it: it's just another measure of the same underlying physical phenomenon.

 

The PDO is dependent upon ENSO on all timescales. To first order, the PDO can be considered the reddened response to both atmospheric noise and ENSO, resulting in more decadal variability than either. 

 

http://courses.washington.edu/pcc587/readings/newman2003.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think maybe the operative word there is effects. In other words the release of some of the excess heat recently absorbed by the oceans during the negative phase. Just my interpretation as I obviously didn't make the statement.

[BornFromTheVoid]

[johnholmes]

the latest ENSO output

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

[Supercell 89]

Just posted this in the Summer 2014 thread but the latest PDO values for April and we've gone into firm positive PDO territory now with the latest value coming in at 1.12 http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Gray-Wolf]

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27343057

 

Oh dear! Nino to scupper England's world cup hopes............ and not the group........

[Don]

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27343057

 

Oh dear! Nino to scupper England's world cup hopes............ and not the group........

 

What hopes?

[knocker]

 

In putting together this months video on the impending El Nino, I interviewed Dr. Kevin Trenberth at length.

 

I wasn’t able to fit everything in the short vid, but there is so much good stuff here, I thought it would be a shame not to share.

 

Part 2, and a bold prediction, tomorrow.