E.N.S.O. Discussion

[knocker]

 

Edited September 12, 2018 by knocker

[jvenge]

More recent model runs weakening the proposed (current not onset) El Nino. Awaiting BOM next update. I was thinking the last 3 months it would be ENSO neutral or weakish Modoki. I was favouring neutral, but looks like I guessed wrong according to models. All shall be come clear soon, though.

ECMWF and MetO appear to be on the top end of the estimate still. Can change.

Solar fairly weak. Not yet clear if minimum. But low, none the less.

This, of course, leads to unknowns for the second half of Autumn and early winter. I'm no expert, but I'd suggest that the Atlantic should have a weak influence into early winter, but how the ENSO develops the next weeks to influence Autumn is up for grabs. 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

A nice read

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/weak-modoki-el-nino-imminent.html

[Blessed Weather]

"A weak El Nino is likely"  (UK Met Office)

The UK Met Office have today (Sept 26th) published a blog with their latest thoughts on ENSO conditions this coming winter:

"Consensus is growing among scientists from a range of climate centres across the world that a weak El Niño is likely to occur during the coming northern hemisphere winter. Professor Adam Scaife is the head of long-term to decadal climate prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre. Commenting on the expectations of an El Niño this winter, Professor Scaife said: “There is a range of forecasts, but the most likely scenario is for the development of a weak to moderate strength El Niño event."

The above diagram shows the temperature observations for the central region of the Pacific (in black) and the evolution predicted by the Met Office dynamical long-range ensemble forecast system (in red).

Link to blog: https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/09/26/a-weak-el-nino-is-likely/

 

[Summer Sun]

A weak El Niño is likely

Consensus is growing among scientists from a range of climate centres across the world that a weak El Niño is likely to occur during the coming northern hemisphere winter.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/09/26/a-weak-el-nino-is-likely/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Which imo will ‘coincide’ with a cold early winter Dec and prob Jan....this could get very interesting 

 

BFTP

[jules216]

For us in Europe  moderate EL Nino is much better then a weak affair if we want cold winter,for example 1963/64,2009/10 against 2004/05 or 2006/07.

[knocker]

 

Edited September 27, 2018 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

8 hours ago, jules216 said:

For us in Europe  moderate EL Nino is much better then a weak affair if we want cold winter,for example 1963/64,2009/10 against 2004/05 or 2006/07.

There is very little correlation with the CET however winters that saw at least two months with weak and positive ONI values are (i have included the year as the January one)..

 

Weak..

1952

1954

1959

1970

1977

1978

1980

1988

2003

2005

2007

2015

 

Moderate..

1964

1966

1969

1987

1995

 

Strong..

1958

1973

1983

1992

1998

2010

2016

 

In terms of the CET..

 

A weak Nino in December favours 5.6C+.

A moderate Nino in December favours a high amplitude CET (either 3.6C< or 5.6C> - equal likelyhood).

A strong Nino in December favours a close to average CET (3.7-5.5C).

 

A weak Nino in January favours 3.4C< CET (i.e. colder than average).

A moderate Nino in January favours 3.4C< CET (i.e. colder than average).

A strong Nino in January favours a close to average CET (3.5-5.3C).

 

A weak Nino in February favours a close to average CET (3.7-5.5C).

A moderate Nino in February favours a CET of 3.5C or above (equal chance of close to average or above average).

A strong Nino in February favours a close to average CET (3.5-5.3C).

 

.......

Worth saying that the winter of 2010 is a strong anomaly for any Nino winter.

 

[jules216]

Can I ask a question? As far as I understand weak or moderate el nino is good to promote MJO convection signature, why is super nino or strong el nino not even better then? ocean temperatures are even warmer so should the MJO not be even more pronounced and easier to enter phases 7,8 or 1 which are conductive to blocking at high lats. I did understand the mechanisms behind strong la nina that it kills the convection because of stronger easterlies in tropics, but I wonder what mechanisms work in super ninos that are causing these zonal winters like 1982/83,1997/87,2015/16

Edited September 27, 2018 by jules216

[jules216]

27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

There is very little correlation with the CET however winters that saw at least two months with weak and positive ONI values are (i have included the year as the January one)..

 

Weak..

1952

1954

1959

1970

1977

1978

1980

1988

2003

2005

2007

2015

 

Moderate..

1964

1966

1969

1987

1995

 

Strong..

1958

1973

1983

1992

1998

2010

2016

 

In terms of the CET..

 

A weak Nino in December favours 5.6C+.

A moderate Nino in December favours a high amplitude CET (either 3.6C< or 5.6C> - equal likelyhood).

A strong Nino in December favours a close to average CET (3.7-5.5C).

 

A weak Nino in January favours 3.4C< CET (i.e. colder than average).

A moderate Nino in January favours 3.4C< CET (i.e. colder than average).

A strong Nino in January favours a close to average CET (3.5-5.3C).

 

A weak Nino in February favours a close to average CET (3.7-5.5C).

A moderate Nino in February favours a CET of 3.5C or above (equal chance of close to average or above average).

A strong Nino in February favours a close to average CET (3.5-5.3C).

 

.......

Worth saying that the winter of 2010 is a strong anomaly for any Nino winter.

 

Really? I did some re-analysis myself, but had 2009/10 as a moderate el nino,which probably contributed to much more pronounced colder anomalies,  I have tried to use years which had low solar activity,although I didn't differentiate between beginning or the end of solar minimum  years, it clearly shows that as a winter the anomalies were much colder in those moderate ones with low solar,then weak ones, mind you 4 winters are quite a poor statistically significant evidence.

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Really? I did some re-analysis myself, but had 2009/10 as a moderate el nino,which probably contributed to much more pronounced colder anomalies,  I have tried to use years which had low solar activity,although I didn't differentiate between beginning or the end of solar minimum  years, it clearly shows that as a winter the anomalies were much colder in those moderate ones with low solar,then weak ones, mind you 4 winters are quite a poor statistically significant evidence.

ONI has it strong. 

I went only for likelyhood rather than average. 

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

ONI has it strong. 

I went only for likelyhood rather than average. 

I used this table that I found here last season

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Where is this nonsense coming from that El Niño is going to cause months of blizzards from?  

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Where is this nonsense coming from that El Niño is going to cause months of blizzards from?  

 

BFTP

The tabloids I think.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The tabloids I think.

It’s as if El Niño is a new phenomena that gets me.....

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s as if El Niño is a new phenomena that gets me.....

 

BFTP

Yes, yet when we had the Dec 10 that they blamed it on La nina, so make up their minds please, which is it? of course that's a rhetorical question, its neither, we have had brutal winters and mild winters in El nino, La nina and ENSO neutral, not saying it has no effect but for our part of the world its very unclear and depends on solar activity, QBO, PDO as well etc.

[tinybill]

looking into fantasy world surly we haven't all ready  to look east to see what is coming  our  way there  interesting  things happening   with what  i saw  the met office  was saying  this week  at 384 hr our weather looking  like its coming from  the east

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

[sebastiaan1973]

On 27/09/2018 at 22:36, jules216 said:

I used this table that I found here last season

 

I think you have to differentiate CP and EP El Nino's. Please read this blog: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s as if El Niño is a new phenomena that gets me.....

BFTP

IMO Fred, that's the fault of the media, who routinely distil/oversimplify complex phenomena into easily-misunderstood soundbites and/or lies.

Then again, they do a similar thing with the so-called 'forecasts' provided by the likes of Madden & Corbyn, each spring and autumn; every year (as though they were saying something profound) they repeat the same old garbage under the same old hackneyed headline. I guess they think their readership has the attention-span of a goldfish...?

They might well be right!

[SMU]

in a weak state there is pretty much ZERO point in reanalising these years in isolation as just one teleconnection.

Plus as highlighted with the exception of a super strong Elnino pretty much all analogues are out of the window due to climate induced pattern change...

[Catacol]

8 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Plus as highlighted with the exception of a super strong Elnino pretty much all analogues are out of the window due to climate induced pattern change...

I suspect this is true. For me the changes in arctic sea ice, and energy that is now stored at high latitudes for much longer than used to be the case with knock on effects on polar pressure patterns, makes the past truly a thing of the past. We can still read the spikes in pacific driven AAM and predict when we will see a more buckled jet and consequent height rises, but how this interacts with polar air masses to the far north is now a new game altogether. Anything much before 2005 is working from a different background state, and analogues are going to be off.

Curiously I wonder if the strat vortex is likely to be perturbed more often in the new state of the world. We are seeing some very persistent blocks these days, and it might be that, while the world warms, our extremes of winter weather increase. Since 2009 we have had a series of quite extreme weather phases through winter, and some stratospheric events that have created significant impacts. March 2018 was extraordinary...but my gut is telling me that we might well have seen a fair few "extraordinary" events in our winter timeline by the time we reach 2030.

[jules216]

23 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

I think you have to differentiate CP and EP El Nino's. Please read this blog: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/

Yes I know,not possible to take only 1 teleconnection in isolation,there might not be many matching analogues if we get in to details 

[knocker]

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by knocker

[Summer Sun]