E.N.S.O. Discussion

[cheeky_monkey]

44 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Yes, winter 2018 is the only one to stay a Nina through winter albeit 13 and 14 were persistant neutral-negative.

looking back at the records for 2017-18 winter..Dec 17 was average temps and very dry .January 18 was average temps and dry..February 18 was cold and average precipitation

[summer blizzard]

28JUL2021 - Niño 3: -0.4, Niño 3.4: -0.4, Niño 4: -0.1

[knocker]

This is a guest post by Dr. Sang-Ki Lee, a physical oceanographer at the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Florida. His research focuses on the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean, and how these interactions impact extreme weather and global climate.

Do you know that El Niño has a little brother?

Yes, El Niño does have a little brother who lives just across the South American continent in the Atlantic Ocean. His name is Atlantic Niño, and he has an uncanny resemblance to his big brother: Like El Niño, Atlantic Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial basin and weaker-than-average trade winds throughout the east-central equatorial Atlantic.

However, there are some important differences between the two. For instance, as has been discussed in this blog, El Niño usually builds up slowly during northern summer before reaching maximum strength in late fall or winter, bringing a wide range of climate impacts throughout much of the planet. Atlantic Niño, in contrast, tends to peak in summer when ENSO is usually inactive, is usually shorter in duration, is overall much weaker than ENSO, and has more modest and local climate impacts. For example, Atlantic Niño often disrupts the West African summer monsoon, leading to reduced rainfall in the Sahel region, and is linked to increased frequency of flooding in northeastern South America and the West African sub-Sahel countries bordering the Gulf of Guinea

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/do-you-know-el-niño-has-little-brother

[summer blizzard]

July ONI came in at -0.2 so June may have been the peak.

MJJ ONI came in at -0.4.

Edited August 5, 2021 by summer blizzard

[karyo]

33 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

July ONI came in at -0.2 so June may have been the peak.

MJJ ONI came in at -0.4.

CFSv2 is keen to develop La Nina by September.

The only region that is stubbornly warm is Nino 1+2

[knocker]

 

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly the MEI index has gone through the floor. Lowest value since 2011.

[knocker]

*Fall Forecast 2021* First look shows a new developing La Nina will start to impact the Autumn weather pattern, continuing further into Winter 2021/2022

Posted on Published: 08/08/2021 By: Author Andrej Flis

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/fall-2021-early-forecast-usa-europe-lanina-fa/?fbclid=IwAR2zMJH8PJZ4fBXBZ5-06ZuKxuBvGLsSirDz6HWcUl67PQQGkgKMG2l_eW0

[Kentish Kiwi]

Any thoughts from those more qualified than I on the potential for the developing La Niña to be a central pacific focussed / Modoki event?

[summer blizzard]

On 09/08/2021 at 03:52, Kentish Kiwi said:

Any thoughts from those more qualified than I on the potential for the developing La Niña to be a central pacific focussed / Modoki event?

Relatively unlikely. As per last year this will likely develop basin wide and then weaken in zone 1.2 and 4. While 1.2 is holding out now this is a fairly typical La Niña signature at the sub-surface rather than west based and we are just seeing 3.4 fall first because we failed to properly remove last years event so there’s little resistance.

[summer blizzard]

04AUG2021 - Niño 3: -0.2, Niño 3.4: -0.3, Niño 4: -0.2

11AUG2021 - Niño 3: -0.4, Niño 3.4: -0.4, Niño 4: -0.2

 

[Kentish Kiwi]

On 11/08/2021 at 07:57, summer blizzard said:

Relatively unlikely. As per last year this will likely develop basin wide and then weaken in zone 1.2 and 4. While 1.2 is holding out now this is a fairly typical La Niña signature at the sub-surface rather than west based and we are just seeing 3.4 fall first because we failed to properly remove last years event so there’s little resistance.

Thanks SB - that makes sense. Appreciate the explanation.

[SqueakheartLW]

Why are the NINO Region anomalies different from different sources?

An example I have is the overall monthly values for July 2021

Example 1. The monthly values here for each NINO region from noaa

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

NINO 4 = -0.25     NINO 3.4 = -0.21     NINO 3 = -0.09     NINO 1+2 = +0.56

Example 2. The monthly values here for all of the daily tropical tidbits measurements

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

I took down each day's measurement for the entire 31 days of July and averaged them out

NINO 4 = +0.26     NINO 3.4 = +0.10     NINO 3 = -0.02     NINO 1+2 = -0.11

Now to compare these figures side by side

Website/Source             NINO 4     NINO 3.4     NINO 3     NINO 1+2

NOAA                              -0.25          -0.21            -0.09         +0.56

TROPICAL TIDBITS        +0.26         +0.10           -0.02         -0.11          

Difference                      0.51            0.31             0.07          0.67           

Summary

Now what are they basing these anomalies on exactly as how can they be so different to each other. Either the water is warmer or colder than average in a certain region. NINO 3 values look to be closest to each other but the differences between the two sources in NINO 4 and especially NINO 1+2 are quite large.

 

[karyo]

Big drops for regions 3.4 (-0.9) and 3 (-0.6)

La Nina is developing nicely.

[summer blizzard]

18AUG2021 - Niño 3: -0.6, Niño 3.4: -0.9, Niño 4: -0.2

Standing wave visible clearly here..

 

[summer blizzard]

25AUG2021 - Niño 3: -0.0, Niño 3.4: -0.3, Niño 4: -0.3

Nino 3 and 3.4 warmed recently however as per the chart above, trades are expected to strengthen in the Nino 3 zone.

August ONI fell to -0.475.
JJA ONI will rise to -0.2/-0.3.

 

[summer blizzard]

Strongest trade surge of this cycle upcoming.

[summer blizzard]

01SEP2021 - Niño 3: -0.3, Niño 3.4: -0.3, Niño 4: -0.3

JJA ONI was -0.4.

[summer blizzard]

Trades forecast to dominate the Pacific through October.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Trades forecast to dominate the Pacific through October.

Please explain what this means?

[summer blizzard]

08SEP2021 - Niño 3: -0.3, Niño 3.4: -0.4, Niño 4: -0.3

15SEP2021 - Niño 3: -0.6, Niño 3.4: -0.4, Niño 4: -0.4

On 17/09/2021 at 23:14, damianslaw said:

Please explain what this means?

Trades persisting over the Pacific with convection limited to the Indian Ocean is a La Nina atmospheric imprint.

[summer blizzard]

22SEP2021 - Niño 3: -0.4, Niño 3.4: -0.3, Niño 4: -0.5

 

 

[summer blizzard]

29SEP2021 - Niño 3: 0.3, Niño 3.4: 0.0, Niño 4: -0.6

Sep ONI came in at -0.28 strangely (we got colder at the sub-surface). 

JAS ONI came in at -0.5.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Strangely the sub-surface is actually colder than last year now.

[summer blizzard]

06OCT2021 - Niño 3: -0.3, Niño 3.4: -0.6, Niño 4: -0.7