E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't suppose you know of any cold or at least half cold UK winters that coincided with a strong Nina? 

In a word - no. There are none in the modern record. Strong Ninas include the horror seasons of 88/89 and 98/99. However the character of each event is likely to be different, and the Met O forecast concentrates the anomaly in 3.4 and to a lesser extent 3 - so very much another central Nina in the offing. 2010/11 (strong) or 2016/17 (moderate) recently.

Were it to become a "super" event and crash through and beyond the -2 boundary then we are probably in uncharted waters (no pun intended) - and together with very low ice over the arctic who knows how things may pan out. I'm seeing climate extreme everywhere I look now, and past trends and impacts are possibly becoming less and less relevant. 

As ever - we shall see soon enough. eQBO and weak/moderate Nina replaced by wQBO and strong Nina wasnt quite what my personal winter script was looking for, however!

Edited October 12, 2020 by Catacol

[blizzard81]

31 minutes ago, Catacol said:

In a word - no. There are none in the modern record. Strong Ninas include the horror seasons of 88/89 and 98/99. However the character of each event is likely to be different, and the Met O forecast concentrates the anomaly in 3.4 and to a lesser extent 3 - so very much another central Nina in the offing. 2010/11 or 2016/17 recently.

Were it to become a "super" event and crash through and beyond the -2 boundary then we are probably in uncharted waters (no pun intended) - and together with very low ice over the arctic who knows how things may pan out. I'm seeing climate extreme everywhere I look now, and past trends and impacts are possibly becoming less and less relevant. 

As ever - we shall see soon enough. eQBO and weak/moderate Nina replaced by wQBO and strong Nina wasnt quite what my personal winter script was looking for, however!

Thank you. I think we need to keep hoping the nina event isn't too strong but I notice your interesting point about a central based one as well as the arctic ice loss. Lots to chew over and digest which is all part of the fun of course. 

[Catacol]

37 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thank you. I think we need to keep hoping the nina event isn't too strong but I notice your interesting point about a central based one as well as the arctic ice loss. Lots to chew over and digest which is all part of the fun of course. 

I suppose (though I say it through grated winter teeth!!) there is more to winter weather watching than snow hunting. Were we to get a super Nina then watching what unfolds in another near unique climate scenario should be interest enough to keep us happy...even if the result was wall to wall rain, or air drawn from Africa as with @CreweCold and his Glosea musings on the other thread. I'm not sure that "normal" means a huge amount anymore in any case. Whether it is a super Nino (15/16) or an unbelievable vortex shatter (17/18) or an index breaking IOD (19/20) we are seeing record books shredded consistently now. Arctic ice limits may break low all time records this month. Heat has hit summer records in the last couple of years. An extreme Nina would be in keeping with a global climate in a see saw state - and who knows: perhaps it will bring an equally record breaking winter season with it........and if that means we have to endure warm, wet misery again and wait another year for the cold record breaker then so be it.

Then again - a record Nina might bring record winter cold to Europe. The wild card in an extreme context is always in play.........

Edited October 12, 2020 by Catacol

[blizzard81]

27 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I suppose (though I say it through grated winter teeth!!) there is more to winter weather watching than snow hunting. Were we to get a super Nina then watching what unfolds in another near unique climate scenario should be interest enough to keep us happy...even if the result was wall to wall rain, or air drawn from Africa as with @CreweCold and his Glosea musings on the other thread. I'm not sure that "normal" means a huge amount anymore in any case. Whether it is a super Nino (15/16) or an unbelievable vortex shatter (17/18) or an index breaking IOD (19/20) we are seeing record books shredded consistently now. Arctic ice limits may break low all time records this month. Heat has hit summer records in the last couple of years. An extreme Nina would be in keeping with a global climate in a see saw state - and who knows: perhaps it will bring an equally record breaking winter season with it........and if that means we have to endure warm, wet misery again and wait another year for the cold record breaker then so be it.

Then again - a record Nina might bring record winter cold to Europe. The wild card in an extreme context is always in play.........

I suppose we could say there is an element of 'the big unknown' with regards to the modern day climate. 

[Don]

53 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I suppose we could say there is an element of 'the big unknown' with regards to the modern day climate. 

I certainly think that's fair to say!  Perhaps expect the unexpected, I don't know?

[summer blizzard]

I'm not sold on some of the more extreme forecasts. We have actually been tracking a little below 2007 and even now are dropping at a slower pace than 2010, the sub-surface is not as cold as either also. For me we are likely to peak somewhere around 1.4 or less so the strongest event in 9 years but not on the same scale. Historically moderate Nina's (ones that are properly moderate rather than just on the edge) also don't tend to weaken quickly so i would wager on a multi-year Nina and the models simply trying to revert to mean. 

[andy989]

Forgive my ignorance. But I'm seeing posts that say we don't want a Nina if we want cold/ice/snow. At the same time I'm seeing posts that say it was a moderate Nina in 2010.

November and December 2010 was the best I've experienced in the UK. Here in North Wales the garden pond was frozen solid on bonfire night and we had snow and sub zero temps for almost 2 months before the breakdown into mild zonality happened just before New year's. So what am I missing here? Thanks

[Catacol]

18 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Forgive my ignorance. But I'm seeing posts that say we don't want a Nina if we want cold/ice/snow. At the same time I'm seeing posts that say it was a moderate Nina in 2010.

November and December 2010 was the best I've experienced in the UK. Here in North Wales the garden pond was frozen solid on bonfire night and we had snow and sub zero temps for almost 2 months before the breakdown into mild zonality happened just before New year's. So what am I missing here? Thanks

We probably dont want a strong Nina. On balance that increases the chances of a +NAO winter and westerly dominance. 2010 was a moderate Nina - and the track record of weak/moderate Nina conditions suggests early cold from atlantic ridge. In 2010 we got such a significant ridge and plunge of polar air that it did create something a bit special.

So - moderate probably ok. Strong not so ok......

[andy989]

8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

We probably dont want a strong Nina. On balance that increases the chances of a +NAO winter and westerly dominance. 2010 was a moderate Nina - and the track record of weak/moderate Nina conditions suggests early cold from atlantic ridge. In 2010 we got such a significant ridge and plunge of polar air that it did create something a bit special.

So - moderate probably ok. Strong not so ok......

I see! Thanks for the reply

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

I'm not sold on some of the more extreme forecasts. We have actually been tracking a little below 2007 and even now are dropping at a slower pace than 2010, the sub-surface is not as cold as either also. For me we are likely to peak somewhere around 1.4 or less so the strongest event in 9 years but not on the same scale. Historically moderate Nina's (ones that are properly moderate rather than just on the edge) also don't tend to weaken quickly so i would wager on a multi-year Nina and the models simply trying to revert to mean. 

It's something I've been scratching my head over too. The modelling going for this 'super' Nina with little circumstantial evidence to suggest this will be the case?

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It's something I've been scratching my head over too. The modelling going for this 'super' Nina with little circumstantial evidence to suggest this will be the case?

Dynamic models often overamplify a current signal. It's why they usually don't get a strong enough event until it's formed. They are usually too weak rather than strong though once formed.

Edited October 12, 2020 by summer blizzard

[damianslaw]

Another winter I think was a La Nina one was 96/97, correct if wrong, that also followed a similar trajectory to 10/11 though a toned down version, early cold mid November through until early January then mild and wet. Almost twin winters.

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Another winter I think was a La Nina one was 96/97, correct if wrong, that also followed a similar trajectory to 10/11 though a toned down version, early cold mid November through until early January then mild and wet. Almost twin winters.

Cold neutral/weak Nina.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Cold neutral/weak Nina.

Thanks, a weak one then. 

[summer blizzard]

23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks, a weak one then. 

I imagine the sub-surface and east Pacific may have been getting quite warm during the winter too given the Niño that followed.

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Another winter I think was a La Nina one was 96/97, correct if wrong, that also followed a similar trajectory to 10/11 though a toned down version, early cold mid November through until early January then mild and wet. Almost twin winters.

January was quite blocked in both cases, and exceptionally dry in the case of 1997. Unusually, the wettest period of that winter was in the last 2/3 of February! It’s a shame NDJ of that winter couldn’t have shifted a month along to occupy to DJF. Could’ve been better than it was! 

[summer blizzard]

07OCT2020 1,2: -1.2, 3.4: -1.2

[sebastiaan1973]

By Antony Masiello

[Griff]

55 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

By Antony Masiello

I saw this too, but I'm still unsure what can be learnt or what this is telling us? 

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

By Antony Masiello

Currently closely tracking 1995 and 2007 .... both years just before solar minimum was called. Who can forget December 1995 but 2007 was unremarkable. Nothing to be gleaned from that but the law of Sod dictates there will likely be some sort of beastly intervention when services are stretched owing to other pressures.

[summer blizzard]

17 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Currently closely tracking 1995 and 2007 .... both years just before solar minimum was called. Who can forget December 1995 but 2007 was unremarkable. Nothing to be gleaned from that but the law of Sod dictates there will likely be some sort of beastly intervention when services are stretched owing to other pressures.

Winter 96 saw a +PDO and the Nina only got as strong as it did about now. 2007 was cooling much more rapidly right now (weekly in 3.4 was -1.8) and the sub-surface was cooler.

I don't think 2007 is a bad analogue if you allow for being a bit weaker and perhaps an earlier peak given the sub-surface being less cool.

[Premiere Neige]

The cooling in the ENSO region of the past few days seems to have leveled off again. Hopefully it doesn't go much lower...

[Wilxy]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

The cooling in the ENSO region of the past few days seems to have leveled off again. Hopefully it doesn't go much lower...

Could go a little lower but shouldn't be much more now.

[SqueakheartLW]

Come on negative SOI. Stick around for a week or two to stop us getting a Strong La Nina or Super Nina

After an over 30 day period of uninterrupted positive SOI this makes a change and could be the thing that saves winter for us if it persists for long enough to keep us at weak or moderate La Nina or helps to at least keep it an EP La Nina

[sebastiaan1973]

Eastern Mass Weather: Mixed Signals Regarding ENSO for Winter 2020-2021

EASTERNMASSWEATHER.BLOGSPOT.COM

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 Mixed Signals Regarding ENSO for Winter 2020-2021 Clarity Emerges with Respect to...