E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Midlands Ice Age]

10 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The CCI anomalies suddenly dropped in mid June... at the same time as the introduction of the new GFS model which is known to be cold biased

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

This still hasn't been resolved it appears....

 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if this year saw a negative ENSO value but we are entering a phase of uncertainty at the moment where ENSO could swing either way.

QS..

Thanks for the reply.

Yes it could well be connected.

Can I ask how the figures above were calculated?, as It  must have had something to act as a standard for this work..

Perhaps it was the old GFS, or are you suggesting that it has varied from the climatic norm - and hence must be wrong?

However, as you suggest, the above chart of the new GFS since the beginning of the year shows a bias for warmth in the Northern hemisphere over the last 3 months. It sure does look as though a change was implemented at the end of June - as all of them  dropped around that point.

Something else to think about. Wasn't the new GFS the only model which got the actual forecast temperatures correct (for the UK) in the recent so called heatwave at the end of June?  It was generally accepted that it had predicted the effect of the onshore affects in a much superior fashion (compared to the old GFS), about 5 days in advance.

All very interesting.

MIA

PS -Just realised that the FV3 is only used (shown in the chart) since June 12. However the 'old' GFS  was itself still showing a huge difference between a very warn NH(oceans), and a cold SH for most of the last 4 months. The 'cold' divergence must have occurred back in April.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age
New data

[Derecho]

4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

QS..

Thanks for the reply.

Yes it could well be connected.

Can I ask how the figures above were calculated?, as It  must have had something to act as a standard for this work..

Perhaps it was the old GFS, or are you suggesting that it has varied from the climatic norm - and hence must be wrong?

However, as you suggest, the above chart of the new GFS since the beginning of the year shows a bias for warmth in the Northern hemisphere over the last 3 months. It sure does look as though a change was implemented at the end of June - as all of them  dropped around that point.

Something else to think about. Wasn't the new GFS the only model which got the actual forecast temperatures correct (for the UK) in the recent so called heatwave at the end of June?  It was generally accepted that it had predicted the effect of the onshore affects in a much superior fashion (compared to the old GFS), about 5 days in advance.

All very interesting.

MIA

PS -Just realised that the FV3 is only used (shown in the chart) since June 12. However the 'old' GFS  was itself still showing a huge difference between a very warn NH(oceans), and a cold SH for most of the last 4 months. The 'cold' divergence must have occurred back in April.

I think the anomaly charts are based off the CFSR reanalysis (which produces global output for each time step with the available data). The bias graph is comparing the anomalies from the model output for T168 with the CFSR reanalysis when it is updated. Differences between the two are expected given at T168 forecast uncertainty from the GFS is likely to come into play.

The old GFS certainly had an annual cycle with regards to its biases, in the winter the forecasts are often cold biased (perhaps too keen to introduce continental outbreaks), whilst in the summer they were often warm biased (ie. too keen to develop heatwaves which get downgraded closer to the time - those in the model thread can relate).

The new GFS however seems to be flat out cold biased and back in winter this was a major problem as it kept forecasting big snow events in the US towards the end of last winter when the other models weren't. These phantom snow events would disappear when it came to T+6 so the release of the FV3 model was put back 3 months as a result. Even in the UK it was forecasting snow events in late January which turned out to be sleet or rain (apart from the instances were it wasn't a borderline snow event).

Whether the bias issues have been improved upon remains to be seen. It certainly forecast the developments of last weeks plume very well, however I remember last saturday it was forecasting maxima of 23C-26C down south when temperatures were 30-34C over a wide area.... so perhaps not yet.

Edited July 6, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[johnholmes]

Latest output from NOAA re ENSO

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.doc

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

40 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Latest output from NOAA re ENSO

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.doc

 

Thanks John...

More evidence from the 3.4 forecast chart that the EL Nino is now slipping away.?

As I mentioned above the Southern Oceans continue to cool, and it now appears that the cold is undercutting the higher surface temperatures across the 1  and 2 and 3.4 regions.

It is also apparent now that the Northern Pacific seems to be starting to cool.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

+1 waters east of 160E are now all but gone.

GFS (though we cant entirely depend on its outlook) is forecasting strong trades across the Pacific in about 10 days. 

If the cold water underneath is going to try for a Nina over Neutral we see surfacing towards mid-August.

[Derecho]

Just an update, the ENSO signal this year appears particularly vague. Looks as though cooler SSTs are developing off the coast of Peru but we have warmer SSTs further west.

Looks like a weak El Nino Modoki signature... it could swing either way I think

However given the Indian monsoon has been particularly active this year, I feel this may be an indication of the atmosphere shifting towards more of a La Nina state.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Not sure what section best to post this in so if mods need to move into a more relevant section please do but some recent info / effects due to the ongoing warm pacific waters especially in Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2019/07/12/warmer-waters-investigated-as-cause-of-pink-salmon-die-off-in-norton-sound-region/

different species of fish now being caught in Alaska and lower numbers of Salmon being caused by the warm waters

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312075904.htm

[summer blizzard]

 

44 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Just an update, the ENSO signal this year appears particularly vague. Looks as though cooler SSTs are developing off the coast of Peru but we have warmer SSTs further west.

Looks like a weak El Nino Modoki signature... it could swing either way I think

However given the Indian monsoon has been particularly active this year, I feel this may be an indication of the atmosphere shifting towards more of a La Nina state.

Sub-surface warmth has completely collapsed east of 160E.

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

 

Sub-surface warmth has completely collapsed east of 160E.

May help tip things to a La Nina later on then, however a lot of uncertainty at this point and we could be close to a neutral ENSO again.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Singularity]

Anomalous rising motion over the unusually warm IOD may be restraining the Walker cell by encouraging more sinking motion than usual across Indonesia.

I'm struggling to find much other explanation in traditional theory as to why most models aren't keen on establishing a La Nina event later this year, and even the trigger-happy CFSv2 only depicts a brief, mostly weak event that doesn't have much effect on the Central Pacific.

If we explore beyond the traditional, then perhaps the extraordinary subtropical warmth extending NE from the Central Pacific in some way disrupts the usual restructuring of the thermocline slope...? 

[summer blizzard]

Nino has been declared dead, Neutral conditions are likely to persist.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[Don]

On 05/08/2019 at 21:50, Singularity said:

Anomalous rising motion over the unusually warm IOD may be restraining the Walker cell by encouraging more sinking motion than usual across Indonesia.

I'm struggling to find much other explanation in traditional theory as to why most models aren't keen on establishing a La Nina event later this year, and even the trigger-happy CFSv2 only depicts a brief, mostly weak event that doesn't have much effect on the Central Pacific.

If we explore beyond the traditional, then perhaps the extraordinary subtropical warmth extending NE from the Central Pacific in some way disrupts the usual restructuring of the thermocline slope...? 

North Atlantic profile looks good for autumn and winter if you want cold.  However, the PDO does not unfortunately!

[summer blizzard]

Sub-surface is now down to -4 in the East Pacific and positive anomalies are now almost all west of the dateline.

While I was leaning towards neutral, we could see a quicker flip if these reach the surface.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 05/08/2019 at 15:13, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Not sure what section best to post this in so if mods need to move into a more relevant section please do but some recent info / effects due to the ongoing warm pacific waters especially in Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blob_(Pacific_Ocean)

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2019/07/12/warmer-waters-investigated-as-cause-of-pink-salmon-die-off-in-norton-sound-region/

different species of fish now being caught in Alaska and lower numbers of Salmon being caused by the warm waters

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312075904.htm

Following on from this

"Is 'The Blob' Back? Latest Marine Heat Wave Could Pose New Risks To Sea Life"

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/758042120/is-the-blob-back-latest-marine-heat-wave-could-pose-new-risks-to-sea-life?t=1568639425919

"New Marine Heatwave Emerges off West Coast, Resembles "the Blob""

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/feature-story/new-marine-heatwave-emerges-west-coast-resembles-blob

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/08/pacific-ocean-marine-heatwave-blog

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

"Artificial intelligence could predict El Niño up to 18 months in advance"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/artificial-intelligence-could-predict-el-ni-o-18-months-advance

https://phys.org/news/2019-09-deep-application-el-nio-events.amp

[summer blizzard]

18SEP2019 -1.3,-0.2

Nino 1.2 and 3.4 have both been negative for 4 weeks now.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[summer blizzard]

Recent weeks have seen the cold water at the sub-surface destroyed outside the Far Eastern Pacific due to a much more Nino atmospheric profile caused by the development of a standing trade wave in the Indian Ocean.

The interesting thing however is that current forecasts are for the standing Indian Ocean wave to leak easterly momentum into the Pacific. If this persists then it may start to entice a cooler sub-surface profile.

Strange goings on.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[karyo]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

This is dreadful! Mild to very mild here and horrid drought in the continent!

[Yarmy]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Think that's now a full house of raging +NAO long rangers for winter. You'd think that would temper expectations somewhat.

Wouldn't you.

[mountain shadow]

49 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Think that's now a full house of raging +NAO long rangers for winter. You'd think that would temper expectations somewhat.

Wouldn't you.

The first couple weeks of November look more -NAO than +NAO though.