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E.N.S.O. Discussion


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

October will record the first weak ONI value with a peak of 0.9 the other week. Both 1.2 and 3.4 are dropping away right now with 1.2 back negative on the dailies.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Significant warming in the last couple of weeks! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Nino 4 - 1.1

Nino 3.4 - 1.1

Nino 3 - 1.0

Already those values are higher than the forecasts

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
On 29/09/2018 at 21:58, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Where is this nonsense coming from that El Niño is going to cause months of blizzards from?  

 

BFTP

The daily express

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Strong chance of a new El Niño forming by early 2019

Quote

 

The World Meteorological Organization says there's a 75-80% chance of a weak El Niño forming within three months. The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns around the world. It is linked to floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia. El Niño events often lead to record temperatures as heat rises from the Pacific.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there's a 90% chance of the event starting in January.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46347451?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Strong likelyhood that this event is near peak now. 

Sub-surface temperature in both 1.2 and 3.4 fell in November from October and sub-surface maps backs that up especially in 3.4 with primary warmth to the east now at the sub-surface.

SON ONI was +0.7 with a November value of +0.9. The surface will carry on increasing for a while but it looks likely that the event should peak this month or early next without a rogue Kelvin wave.  

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As per my thoughts early in the month December is looking like it will average 1.0/1.1 with a continued weakening of the sub-surface so close to peak.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As suspected this event peaked at the surface in December with 1.0 i believe for the ONI.

The first two weeks of January have been hit hard by a trade burst meaning that they are actually struggling to stay above 0.5.

Sub-surface however still has little cold outside isolated cold pools.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Should ENSO head more positive again late 2019, there might be some serious deja vu going around - but the QBO should be opposite to what we've had this time so that'll mix things up a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 hours ago, Singularity said:

Should ENSO head more positive again late 2019, there might be some serious deja vu going around - but the QBO should be opposite to what we've had this time so that'll mix things up a bit.

I am not overly sold on that. Although there is no sub-surface wave from the west this Nino failed to remove the south american cold pool near it and 1.2 has increasingly negative sub surface anomolies. This in tandem with the PDO looking more negative means that neutral or even cold neutral might be a more likely outcome.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Strength Outlooks for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Quote

Abstract

Three strategies for creating probabilistic forecast outlooks for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are compared. One is subjective and is currently used by the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce official ENSO outlooks. A second is purely objective and is based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). A new third strategy is proposed in which the forecaster only provides the expected value of the Niño-3.4 index, and then categorical probabilities are objectively determined based on past skill. The new strategy results in more confident probabilities compared to the subjective approach and higher verification scores, while avoiding the significant forecast busts that sometimes afflict the NMME-based objective approach. The higher verification scores of the new strategy appear to result from the added value that forecasters provide in predicting the mean, combined with more reliable representations of uncertainty, which is difficult to represent because forecasters often assume less confidence than is justified. Moreover, the new approach can produce higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts that include ENSO strength information and that are difficult, if not impossible, for forecasters to produce. To illustrate, a nine-category ENSO outlook based on the new strategy is assessed and found to be skillful. The new approach can be applied to other outlooks where users desire higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts, including the extremes.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1

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