E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the passage of the sun over into our side of the hemisphere and the warmer waters spreading out east will see temps raise up into neutral levels for the summer esp. if we see good heating and lack of cloud to the north and south of the regions.

The last time we were heading down into solar sunspot min was 06' and I think we'd all like a bit of 06's summer ( tied with 03' and 76'!!!)

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think the passage of the sun over into our side of the hemisphere and the warmer waters spreading out east will see temps raise up into neutral levels for the summer esp. if we see good heating and lack of cloud to the north and south of the regions.

The last time we were heading down into solar sunspot min was 06' and I think we'd all like a bit of 06's summer ( tied with 03' and 76'!!!)

Definitely not! Terrible summer for working and sleeping that was followed by a terribly mild winter.

[jvenge]

46 minutes ago, karyo said:

Definitely not! Terrible summer for working and sleeping that was followed by a terribly mild winter.

Picky lot you brits :-D Warm, but not too warm...

[knocker]

ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans

Quote

El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. The ENSO Outlook is INACTIVE, meaning there is little sign of El Niño or La Niña developing in the coming months.

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators reflect this neutral state. Sea surface temperatures remain cooler than average, but within the neutral range. However, waters beneath the surface have warmed, and will likely extend to the surface in the coming weeks to months. In the atmosphere, trade winds and cloudiness patterns are near normal, consistent with a neutral state. Although the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has bounced back into the La Niña range, this is a result of transient tropical systems, including tropical cyclones Marcus and Nora, and does not reflect the broader climate state.

Most international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the southern hemisphere autumn and into winter. A neutral ENSO pattern does not necessarily indicate average rainfall and temperature for Australia. Rather, it indicates a reduced chance of widespread very wet or very dry weather, and that other climate drivers may have greater influence over the coming months.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April. Four out of six international models suggest a neutral IOD for autumn and early winter, while two show a shift towards a negative IOD during winter. A negative IOD during winter tends to enhance rainfall in southern Australia. However, model accuracy during autumn is lower than at other times of year, so these outlooks should be used with caution.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[snowsummer]

On 27/03/2018 at 12:08, knocker said:

ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Hi Malcolm.  Ive just read an article saying  it looks like we could be heading for  an el nino already?? Im never completely sure on the "whos who" and reliability  of some forecasts that i read ( if that makes sense...been a long day! ) what are your opinions on this please? Thank you 

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Hi Malcolm.  Ive just read an article saying  it looks like we could be heading for  an el nino already?? Im never completely sure on the "whos who" and reliability  of some forecasts that i read ( if that makes sense...been a long day! ) what are your opinions on this please? Thank you 

As far as I'm aware neutral remains the percentage play snowsummer

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

[summer blizzard]

For the weeklies Nina is still hanging on albeit on its last legs. Upper ocean heat content would suggest a push towards the positive side of neutral.

However...

1.2 recorded the coldest March since 2005 (the winter of 06 saw another Nina develop) and 3.4 saw the coldest March since 2011 (the winter of 12 saw another Nina) so we may see a new event later on.

The final thing to add is that although warm anomolies are widespread beneath the surface, they are now waning again in the western Pacific so if this event fails to surface properly it may be a dud. 

[knocker]

 

[summer blizzard]

Tri-monthlies will probably make F-M-A the last Nina month however on the weeklies Nina has ended in 3.4.

Nina 1.2 however is still roaring away thanks to persistent trades and looks to be the coldest April in 1.2 for 20 years. March PDO was also negative.

Although we may get to weak, i stand by my belief that this Nino will flop for the most part.

[Singularity]

Fascinating how the negative anomalies have become almost entirely confined to the S. Hemisphere side of the Pacific, aside of course from where those trade winds are continuing to have a strong impact. Meanwhile, the anomalous subtropical warmth in the N. Pacific persists for yet another month. I've lost count of how many it's been now!

[summer blizzard]

[knocker]

 

Edited May 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

 

Edited June 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

June 2018 ENSO Update: El Niño Watch!

Quote

Well, well, well… what have we here? Favorable conditions for El Niño to develop? The June ENSO forecast estimates a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the late summer or early autumn, and an approximately 65% chance of El Niño conditions in the winter, so forecasters have instituted an El Niño Watch.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2018-enso-update-el-niño-watch

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 1, 2018 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

Not that the weather ever likes to make things complication but just as Nino is forming... PDO has finally started to sink like the Bismark.

[Singularity]

Looking at this, I can see elements of both signs of the PDO in the above SST anomaly map; it looks very mixed to me i.e. near neutral...?

[damianslaw]

Is an El Nino base state more conducive to euro heights, and plume events with trough action anchored to our west, especially second half of summer? Also suggests hurricane season looks suppressed this year.

Whereas La Nina base state tends to produce mid atlantic height development?

I'm beginning to think ahead to autumn, potential major flip to something much wetter perhaps.

[summer blizzard]

12 hours ago, Singularity said:

Looking at this, I can see elements of both signs of the PDO in the above SST anomaly map; it looks very mixed to me i.e. near neutral...?

The horse shoe of cold is the first time it's properly got going in some time and is pretty indicative (has developed over the past two months). Not sure how much the tropics are taken into account of the PDO calculation since although the PDO and ENSO are normally correlated, they don't always match.

Only neutral to negative at the moment but interesting none the less in the face of a developing Nino. 

[summer blizzard]

Nino 1.2 continues to resist with persisting negative anomolies and there is erosion of the sub-surface support west of 170W so it seems likely that a weak event is most likely rather than a full moderate or strong event. 

On a more interesting note though, we are currently seeing the strongest trade surge since at least April if not earlier so we may see pause for a week or two. 

[damianslaw]

Would like some thoughts on effect of a weak El Nino for late summer/early autumn. What sort of conditions might it produce? A return to more normal atlantic weather?

[summer blizzard]

On 09/07/2018 at 22:20, damianslaw said:

Would like some thoughts on effect of a weak El Nino for late summer/early autumn. What sort of conditions might it produce? A return to more normal atlantic weather?

Typically it weakens the mid-latitude westerlies and displaces the sub-tropical high pressure belt north so for Autumn, perhaps a drier signal. Warmer or colder depends on the AO.  

 

[knocker]

 

Edited July 12, 2018 by knocker

[karyo]

Some of the forecast models are taking El Nino to moderate category for next winter. I hope it doesn't get upgraded further.

At least the sun will be on our side this winter.