E.N.S.O. Discussion

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Non disclosure agreement.

thank you

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

thank you

Your welcome John.

[summer blizzard]

11 hours ago, karyo said:

Feel free to elaborate about the significance of this.

Basically big red blobs represent westerlies (strong tropical westerlies are what we are talking about when we refer to the MJO - areas of low pressure and convection). 

We have recently seen a westerly wind burst near India/Indonesia (that line of relatively dark red near the left of the page) which is aiding in producing a upcoming warm spell.. however as that wave dies we are seeing a very strong surge of easterlies forecast to occur near the dateline (this is why Nino forecasts have reduced in recent months - those easterlies are refusing to go away) and this burst of easterlies may produce a response more akin to a Nina for the UK (generally less settled with the Azores High out of sight). 

That's how i understand things (Singularity expanded a bit on the westerlies). 

[summer blizzard]

As per my prior post i would add that the ECWMF ensembles are extremely aggressive with the forecast trades. 

[karyo]

Thank you blizzard 

[knocker]

 

[karyo]

The CFSv2 ensemble mean goes for a rapid cooling of the Nino 3.4 region over the next month and continuing during the autumn.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[knocker]

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS is no better..

[Matthew.]

22 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS is no better..

I just wonder with a busier than usual hurricane season probably on its way if this could disrupt this signal and push up ridges over the Uk with Low pressure sinking into Iberia. 

[summer blizzard]

22 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I just wonder with a busier than usual hurricane season probably on its way if this could disrupt this signal and push up ridges over the Uk with Low pressure sinking into Iberia. 

Can't really predict the effect of hurricanes because where they form and how strong they are differ so much. 

[seaside 60]

14 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I just wonder with a busier than usual hurricane season probably on its way if this could disrupt this signal and push up ridges over the Uk with Low pressure sinking into Iberia. 

If I remember correctly,  the ex hurricane lows "normally" blast up north west coast and pull the air northwards sort of sucking up the hot air from down south.

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly the GFS forecasts the trades to weaken in the central pacific but strengthen in the western and eastern Pacific. 

I'm not quite sure whether this is weakening or a sign that the west and eastern Pacific are going to see potential cooling. 

Edited August 2, 2017 by summer blizzard

[jvenge]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Interestingly the GFS forecasts the trades to weaken in the central pacific but strengthen in the western and eastern Pacific. 

I'm not quite sure whether this is weakening or a sign that the west and eastern Pacific are going to see potential cooling. 

It changed quickly, but I'd expect the next ENSO watch to up the chances of La Nina, lower the chances of El Nino, but likely still keep neutral as the form horse.

[snowwman]

On 8/2/2017 at 06:24, jvenge said:

It changed quickly, but I'd expect the next ENSO watch to up the chances of La Nina, lower the chances of El Nino, but likely still keep neutral as the form horse.

Indeed, I think it's difficult to imagine El Nino continuing to be preferred over La Nina. The move toward Neural as the most likely outcome by winter's start will eventually result in La Nina being the most likely outcome, I think, and as has been mentioned, CFv2 has been keen on this possibility of late.

[jvenge]

45 minutes ago, snowwman said:

Indeed, I think it's difficult to imagine El Nino continuing to be preferred over La Nina. The move toward Neural as the most likely outcome by winter's start will eventually result in La Nina being the most likely outcome, I think, and as has been mentioned, CFv2 has been keen on this possibility of late.

Yep, seems neutral conditions are the form horse at the moment, but after the El Nino that never was, kinda shows that this area has a lot more research ahead for it and I sincerely hope it is something that is top of the list when it comes to funding and research.

Just worth mentioning that there isn't anything unusual about neutral conditions and it isn't written that it has to be either an El Nino or La Nina.

[snowwman]

Amazingly fast cooling in the far Pacific:

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=cur

 

. At this rate, we'll get a La Nina very soon.

[summer blizzard]

Met Office join the Nina/cool neutral party..

[snowwman]

Latest SST are out-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

and show a cooling in all enso regions.

 

 

[snowwman]

CPC now puts Nina ahead of Nino for winter:

http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi8_sXdguTVAhUEEVAKHZHqD4kQFggLMAA&usg=AFQjCNG4IpbNEDz_fJDqlOvjJ77HOWtBLQ

 

, with neutral the preferred option. However, the way the models have been trending, I say that the most likely outcome is La Nina.

 

Edited August 19, 2017 by snowwman

[cheeky_monkey]

On 8/19/2017 at 13:29, snowwman said:

CPC now puts Nina ahead of Nino for winter:

http://www.google.co.uk/url?q=http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi8_sXdguTVAhUEEVAKHZHqD4kQFggLMAA&usg=AFQjCNG4IpbNEDz_fJDqlOvjJ77HOWtBLQ

 

, with neutral the preferred option. However, the way the models have been trending, I say that the most likely outcome is La Nina.

 

La Nina tendS to favour cold winters here in Western Canada and El Nino warm winters...the correlations is much stringer here than the UK

[snowwman]

Indeed, the correlation here appears weak, but only if you're taking of extremes (la Nina and El Nino). Here, cool side of neutral touching on la Nina seems to be ideal, though you need to factor- in the QBO and solar activity (as measured by cosmic ray influx, not sunspots (as there's a delay in the former, which is what influences the jet- stream, relative to the latter, in odd- numbered cycles).

[summer blizzard]

1.2: -0.7

3.4: -0.5

Geronimo!!!!!!!!! 

La Nina over cool neutral?

[snowwman]

19 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

1.2: -0.7

3.4: -0.5

Geronimo!!!!!!!!! 

La Nina over cool neutral?

Probably. We may even be there next month, but any warming pulses would delay that.

[jvenge]

La Nina, although only a medium one, showing on the CFSv2 last 10 runs. This is a movement from the neutral to weak La Nina from earlier runs