E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Bullseye]

After the discussions last week between a few of the members on here, I am now intrigued by a Canadian Warming and finding/reading more information about this. Is there any links anyone recommends and also is there any data for CW  (years that experienced a CW)?

Thanks  

[Matthew.]

I found this interesting about the winter of 2009/10. Has a part of how warm Canada was in February of 10 An interesting read nethertheless.

https://sites.google.com/site/whythe2009winterissocold/

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

After the discussions last week between a few of the members on here, I am now intrigued by a Canadian Warming and finding/reading more information about this. Is there any links anyone recommends and also is there any data for CW  (years that experienced a CW)?

Thanks  

^^

[fergieweather]

On Friday, September 30, 2016 at 14:02, Bullseye said:

After the discussions last week between a few of the members on here, I am now intrigued by a Canadian Warming and finding/reading more information about this. Is there any links anyone recommends and also is there any data for CW  (years that experienced a CW)?

Thanks  

NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update.

[Coopsy]

On 30/09/2016 at 16:13, Matthew Wilson said:

I found this interesting about the winter of 2009/10. Has a part of how warm Canada was in February of 10 An interesting read nethertheless.

https://sites.google.com/site/whythe2009winterissocold/

I was living in the canadian rockies then and remember the olympics in Vancouver in Feb 2010. It was so warm I remember it hitting the teens on some days and that was at 4000ft elevation. (in part helped by strong chinook winds) It was a fairly warm snowless winter. The next year made up for it and in fact 2013/14 we had over 30 days in a row we didnt get above freezing.

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, fergieweather said:

NB Signal for any early warming / reversal has waned recently. Next EC Seasonal output later this week may be instructive versus Glosea; ie if signs of -ve NAO into winter also turn less bullish versus last update.

Bad news for us coldies but many thanks anyway for the update Ian. Is this waning signal coming from Glosea? And is the Glosea now less inclined towards a neg NAO for this winter?

Edited October 2, 2016 by blizzard81

[northwestsnow]

I think the signal for a neg NAO was for the early part of winter, lets see what the next update suggests..:)

[daz_4]

Looks like that warm spot in NE Pacific is starting to weaken and should continue to do so in October. 

[weirpig]

Zonal wind at 60N 30hPa markedly lower than this time last year. Note pink line is towards the end of the overal average #interesting

Latest Tweet from Matt Hugo

[summer blizzard]

Anybody have the phase 8 and 1 data for the MJO..

After a brief upswing last week put 1.2 at 0.8 and 3.4 at -0.4, this week sees 3.4 fall to -0.8 and 1.2 fall to 0.6. 

[karyo]

Any news from the latest EC seasonal output? Is it out today or tomorrow?

[weirpig]

59 minutes ago, karyo said:

Any news from the latest EC seasonal output? Is it out today or tomorrow?

Not sure  ive emailed then for list of dates etc   ill let you know.

[blizzard81]

Any news on the updated ECM seasonal forecast? I thought it was due out today.

[fergieweather]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Any news on the updated ECM seasonal forecast? I thought it was due out today.

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

[johnholmes]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

That should wake the coldies up from their summer hibernation, well those not already seeing snowmen outside their windows!

[tcc]

15 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

And your only telling us now?! Ian, you should know better than to keep this kind of news quiet! haha!

Just messing, interesting that this appears to go against the Glosea5 signal?

[blizzard81]

27 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

Thank you Ian. Good news indeed for us coldies. Lets hope the meto seasonal update agrees with this. The September one did. I believe the meto seasonal October update should be next week. Could you please confirm?

[Rocheydub]

45 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW. 

Good man Mr F. Bringing Santa early to the masses!

[fergieweather]

9 hours ago, Rocheydub said:

Good man Mr F. Bringing Santa early to the masses!

Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.

[ITSY]

On 9 October 2016 at 08:23, fergieweather said:

Very interesting output, yes. But my firm advice would be to hold-off writing letters to Santa until we see the November EC output, plus wherever GloSea5 & MeteoFrance modelling leads us in the interim, be it consensual or not.

Hi Ian,

Thanks for updates on here. Really interesting.

Do you know when next GloSea5 and MeteoFrance updates will be? 

[fergieweather]

4 hours ago, ITSY said:

Hi Ian,

Thanks for updates on here. Really interesting.

Do you know when next GloSea5 and MeteoFrance updates will be? 

GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things... 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

GloSea5 was out today. Quite a different take on things... 

Mmmm not what many hoped for - and which do the METO think has more chance of being correct? Too early I guess!!

[weirpig]

25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mmmm not what many hoped for - and which do the METO think has more chance of being correct? Too early I guess!!

Yep  just had a quick look  seems averge to slightly above  is there take on it so far.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep  just had a quick look  seems averge to slightly above  is there take on it so far.

Yep, a rather watered down version of their September update. I was sort of expecting it though.

[weirpig]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Yep, a rather watered down version of their September update. I was sort of expecting it though.

Mind you  a average winter would be great after the few winters   snow possible