E.N.S.O. Discussion

[joggs]

Thanks Fergieweather.The reasoned voice of the silly season.John Holmes also included.Lol

[Singularity]

Thanks as always Fergie. For clarification, did you mean reversal in the zonal winds in the troposphere or reversal in the QBO? Sounds more like the former to me which certainly raises the eyebrows.

[fergieweather]

33 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Thanks as always Fergie. For clarification, did you mean reversal in the zonal winds in the troposphere or reversal in the QBO? Sounds more like the former to me which certainly raises the eyebrows.

reversal at 10hPa, but signal very tentative at present.

[weirpig]

So there is a tentative sign of a ssw? 

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Interesting  la Nina Modoki and perhaps a easterly QBO   game on perhaps for a more seasonal winter

Just had a read of the paper Fergie posted. According to these scientists, a regular east based La Nina would be a better option for a negative NAO. Central pacific Nina has a composite for positive NAO but it's all moot with so many variables.

Your question about a SSW on the next page... they are talking about the tropical stratosphere (I think). An SSW is measured in the arctic circle stratosphere at 60 degrees north

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Just had a read of the paper Fergie posted. According to these scientists, a regular east based La Nina would be a better option for a negative NAO. Central pacific Nina has a composite for positive NAO but it's all moot with so many variables.

Your question about a SSW on the next page... they are talking about the tropical stratosphere (I think). An SSW is measured in the arctic circle stratosphere at 60 degrees north

Thank you so by that I presume the there as been a reversal in the zonal winds in thetropical stratosphere  10 Hpa which may result in a easterly QBO? 

[Gael_Force]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Thank you so by that I presume the there as been a reversal in the zonal winds in thetropical stratosphere  10 Hpa which may result in a easterly QBO? 

I think that is what he is saying. As far as I know they measure every day above Singapore but we only see a monthly mean in the table at the end of a calendar month. It may mean the downward propagating east cycle is about to start again or it could stay a confused picture for a bit longer.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Gael_Force

[weirpig]

32 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I think that is what he is saying. As far as I know they measure every day above Singapore but we only see a monthly mean in the table at the end of a calendar month. It may mean the downward propagating east cycle is about to start again or it could stay a confused picture for a bit longer.

Brilliant thank you for taking the time. Downward ie stratosphere to troposphere ? 

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Brilliant thank you for taking the time. Downward ie stratosphere to troposphere ? 

Down through the equatorial stratosphere: measured at lots of levels but the one we usually see on the NOAA site is the 30mb reading. I'm not sure if it ceases to be QBO at the tropopause; something for others to clarify.

You can see all the levels on the 2016 data.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore2016.dat

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html

Sorry @weirpig ... I misunderstood the reference Fergieweather made: been waffling about wrong subject but it might be even better news.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Gael_Force
Correction for Weirpig.

[fergieweather]

2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Just had a read of the paper Fergie posted. According to these scientists, a regular east based La Nina would be a better option for a negative NAO. Central pacific Nina has a composite for positive NAO but it's all moot with so many variables.

Your question about a SSW on the next page... they are talking about the tropical stratosphere (I think). An SSW is measured in the arctic circle stratosphere at 60 degrees north

Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

[Nouska]

24 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

Sorry to take off topic so that I might ask Mr Fergusson the question as to whether GloSea5 can differentiate between a Canadian warming, where the vortex is pushed so far into Siberia that it temporarily creates a wind reversal, and a bona fide SSW. I saw the Strat. graph from the model forecast for last winter in the Aemet pdf - very accurate.

[weirpig]

35 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

That would certainly make xmas interesting    Either way this winter is certainly going to be different to last 

[alexisj9]

51 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hi - sorry, to clarify. I'm talking about 10hPa, 60 deg. N model signal through November. An interesting possibility so early in the season, but not (currently) a majority ENS solution. 

Will this mean central Siberia may be very cold in late November?

[fergieweather]

23 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Sorry to take off topic so that I might ask Mr Fergusson the question as to whether GloSea5 can differentiate between a Canadian warming, where the vortex is pushed so far into Siberia that it temporarily creates a wind reversal, and a bona fide SSW. I saw the Strat. graph from the model forecast for last winter in the Aemet pdf - very accurate.

A very good question. I will endeavour to source an answer for you. 

[Singularity]

Well, this takes me back 6 years - the unusually far advanced signs from GloSea of a SSW or Canadian Warming event.

If only that meant things going forward will necessarily be similar! As it is, the fog still seems unusually dense in the world of long range forecasting at the moment.

[weirpig]

Jason Nicholls ‏@jnmet  17h17 hours ago

Equatorial winds (easterly) and OLR anomalies show a pretty distinct #LaNina Modoki signature across the Pacific.

Growing confidence of a LaNina Modoki setting in for the winter?

 

Edited September 22, 2016 by weirpig

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 hours ago, Singularity said:

Well, this takes me back 6 years - the unusually far advanced signs from GloSea of a SSW or Canadian Warming event.

If only that meant things going forward will necessarily be similar! As it is, the fog still seems unusually dense in the world of long range forecasting at the moment.

Aren't Canadian warmings seen as the harbinger of cold and blocked conditions (at least early on in the season) across NW Europe?

Sure I read we haven't seen one in a while.

If the GLOSEA is seeing a Canadian Warming event, it perhaps explains the returns that it is showing in this month's update for pressure anomalies through the winter period?

Edited September 22, 2016 by CreweCold

[fergieweather]

On Wednesday, September 21, 2016 at 21:49, Nouska said:

Sorry to take off topic so that I might ask Mr Fergusson the question as to whether GloSea5 can differentiate between a Canadian warming, where the vortex is pushed so far into Siberia that it temporarily creates a wind reversal, and a bona fide SSW. I saw the Strat. graph from the model forecast for last winter in the Aemet pdf - very accurate.

Sorry for delay. The answer I'm given is yes, in so far as the human input (ie expert examination of component signals from the model and pattern recognition). 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry for delay. The answer I'm given is yes, in so far as the human input (ie expert examination of component signals from the model and pattern recognition). 

Ohhhhhh Fergie you are setting the pulse racing ! 

I will watch this thread like a hawk over the next 6 to 8 weeks, can't wait for chino Tamara and Recteros to get in on the action.

Tentative signs from Glosea5 that some kind of strat warming may be on the menu before the year is out? 

Hope iv'e not got the wrong end of the stick

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ohhhhhh Fergie you are setting the pulse racing ! 

I will watch this thread like a hawk over the next 6 to 8 weeks, can't wait for chino Tamara and Recteros to get in on the action.

Tentative signs from Glosea5 that some kind of strat warming may be on the menu before the year is out? 

Hope iv'e not got the wrong end of the stick

 

Get that Canadian warming and it puts us in the driving seat. I'd suggest that the GLOSEA5 ensemble mean for pressure anomalies is being skewed somewhat by those members who initiate this warming...I'd wager if we were to see the individual perts, there'd be some cracking eye candy in there wrt to Greenland HP scenarios. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Get that Canadian warming and it puts us in the driving seat. I'd suggest that the GLOSEA5 ensemble mean for pressure anomalies is being skewed somewhat by those members who initiate this warming...I'd wager if we were to see the individual perts, there'd be some cracking eye candy in there wrt to Greenland HP scenarios. 

Was there a canadian warming in the Winter/ice age of 1963?

I am way out of my depth really Crewe but i'm pretty sure canadian warmings are pretty rare...

 

Edited September 23, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Was there a canadian warming in 1963?

I am way out of my depth really Crewe but i'm pretty sure canadian warmings are pretty rare...

 

Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962

[northwestsnow]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Pretty sure there was a Canadian warming in Nov 1962

Likey likey likey likey

Anyway, over to the experts, im preeeety sure i'll see you again in this thread over the next feww weeks crewe !!;)

[Gael_Force]

Yes, there was a Canadian warming in November '62. Huge band of positive heights extended from Europe to western Canada. I posted a study about it in one of the strat threads.

PS. we should really move this discussion to the strat thread.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Yes, there was a Canadian warming in November '62. Huge band of positive heights extended from Europe to western Canada. I posted a study about it in one of the strat threads.

PS. we should really move this discussion to the strat thread.

Oh gawd i thought i was in the strat thread, i really am getting old!!

I will watch and drool from the sidelines for a while...:)