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E.N.S.O. Discussion


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Test post (haven't been able to get desired post to, erm, post).

 

Okay... editing in the desired post content bit by bit:

 

 

Great post by the legend that is GP, which is about as surprising as waking up in the same room as you went to sleep in!
 
The 1972-73 event featured a winter across the North Atlantic that was broadly similar to those of 1983 and 1998, in that the NAO was markedly negative, and the UK saw an increasingly strong influence from high pressure after a relatively unsettled start.
 
1998 has the interesting presence of anomalously high 500mb heights over Greenland and into Scandinavia for the period Nov-Jan, which fades to neutral when looking at the Jan-Mar period. This suggests that blocking can't be ruled out for at least part of the winter even if we do follow a path similar to 1998. That said, the positioning is another matter as far as seeing some decent cold, snowy conditions.

 

Something that's really been puzzling me lately is what took place during the winters falling within the 1957-58 and 1965-66 El Nino events; blocking was common to the west (and at times northwest) across the majority of both, and overall heights were anomalously low across Europe and the UK:

 

Turns out it's the link to the plot generated using esrl.noaa.gov that is preventing successful posting. You'll just have to imagine it I'm afraid!  :rolleyes: 

 

So far, attempts to identify major differences in the spatial distribution of SSTs haven't revealed anything of note; for example the 56-57 event bears a lot of similarity to the 1982-83 event.

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago

Why does the amplitude of El Nino matter? From strong Full Basin events to weak ones; 500H Anomaly DJF Pattern

 

Just adding the video:

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/COEFgy-UsAEhpIh.mp4

 

Anyone know what the 'Forcing Lon: 120W Amp: -5 N=112 (limit=1VPU)' means? I'm guessing -5=Strong El Nino, -1=Weak for the Amplitude? 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Nice one Knocker...excellent post

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

MEI.png

 

Still basin wide as well but 1.2 cooled for the first time since Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As above i'd still say it's basin wide bcause both regions are above +1 unlike 09/10 (and will probably produce similar effects because of that) but you can see that the core of the heat is shifting west so there's hope for cooling in 1.2 yet.

 

East_Based.png

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

As above i'd still say it's basin wide bcause both regions are above +1 unlike 09/10 (and will probably produce similar effects because of that) but you can see that the core of the heat is shifting west so there's hope for cooling in 1.2 yet.

 

East_Based.png

Shift west - modoki (could be interesting)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Shift west - modoki (could be interesting)

 

Only if 1.2 actually cools properly otherwise its still likely to act as if its basin wide. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Apropos nothing at all really. :)

 

Sea level now dropped over 25cm in W.Pacific and risen over 25cm in E.Pacific. Big El Nino

 

Quite an interesting site.

 

bulletin.aviso.oceanobs.com/html/produits/indic/enso/welcome_uk.php3 â€¦

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago

Latest CFSv2 ENSO forecast suggests La Nina right around the corner.The 2016 Hurricane season could be interesting

 

Interesting Knocker, I posted the following in July 16th and made further posts re this

 

I think we'll see a rapid drop off from Nino next year.  I have it to peak in our Autumn [Oct/Nov].  Let's see how this pans out.  What QBO will we have this winter?

 

BFTP

 

 

 

 

We enter interesting and possible pivotal times

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

BFTP, given that El Nino typically peaks in late Autumn and the descends into La Nina the following year, surely making that prediction is akin to predicting that UK temperatures will peak in July/August and then drop as we go through Autumn?

 

You keep changing your tune it seems. Just looking back through your thoughts on this thread last winter:

 

Then toward the end of Spring, when at least a moderate El Nino was certain, your tune completely changed:

  • I certainly think that a medium to strong El Nino is on the cards.

 

It seems to me that while the El Nino was looking weak, you "predicted" it would be weak and continue that way, and when it looked like becoming strong, you "predicted" it would be strong and a strong El Nino was always expected.

Can you show that you predicted a strong El Nino this year before we were already close to strong El Nino values?

 

Please don't use this as an excuse to pointlessly attack AGW, as in our previous exchanges, we know what your opinions are there and this has nothing to do with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.

 

1998 has the interesting presence of anomalously high 500mb heights over Greenland and into Scandinavia for the period Nov-Jan, which fades to neutral when looking at the Jan-Mar period. This suggests that blocking can't be ruled out for at least part of the winter even if we do follow a path similar to 1998. That said, the positioning is another matter as far as seeing some decent cold, snowy conditions.

 

 

 

Yes, it looks like despite that anomaly, Nov 97, Dec 97 and Jan 98 all came in above average for the whole UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest update from the BOM

 

A strong El Niño and record warm Indian Ocean continue

 

El Niño continues to strengthen. Recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators are at levels not seen since the 1997–98 El Niño. Persistently weak or reversed trade winds and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in conjunction with the ongoing warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicate the El Niño is unlikely to end before early 2016.

Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to rise further over the next few months, coming close to, or possibly exceeding, monthly values observed during the 1997–98 event. All models suggest the event will peak around the end of the year, followed by rapid weakening heading into autumn 2016. It is too early to accurately determine the likely pattern beyond autumn, but a continued El Niño is considered the least likely outcome at this stage.
Temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are continuing to have a strong influence on Australian climate. The whole Indian Ocean remains warmer than average with sea surface temperatures in the southern Indian Ocean the highest on record for winter. Some localised cooling near Indonesia means the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been above the +0.4 °C threshold for six weeks. If this continues for at least another fortnight, this will be considered a positive IOD event. Most models indicate this is likely.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

 

Latest update from the BOM

 

A strong El Niño and record warm Indian Ocean continue

 

El Niño continues to strengthen. Recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators are at levels not seen since the 1997–98 El Niño. Persistently weak or reversed trade winds and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in conjunction with the ongoing warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicate the El Niño is unlikely to end before early 2016.

Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to rise further over the next few months, coming close to, or possibly exceeding, monthly values observed during the 1997–98 event. All models suggest the event will peak around the end of the year, followed by rapid weakening heading into autumn 2016. It is too early to accurately determine the likely pattern beyond autumn, but a continued El Niño is considered the least likely outcome at this stage.
Temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are continuing to have a strong influence on Australian climate. The whole Indian Ocean remains warmer than average with sea surface temperatures in the southern Indian Ocean the highest on record for winter. Some localised cooling near Indonesia means the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been above the +0.4 °C threshold for six weeks. If this continues for at least another fortnight, this will be considered a positive IOD event. Most models indicate this is likely.
 

 

 

A lot of focus on the Nino for our winter outlook but could the very warm Indian ocean basin wide (IOBW) be more of an influence for the winter season?

 

JMA research composites suggest it could.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/climate/ENSO/index_iobw.html

 

iobwp_DJF.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Interesting stuff Nouska.

 

The NOAA ENSO blog had an update a few days ago with a Q&A

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/september-2015-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-and-qa

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

It seems to me that while the El Nino was looking weak, you "predicted" it would be weak and continue that way, and when it looked like becoming strong, you "predicted" it would be strong and a strong El Nino was always expected.

Can you show that you predicted a strong El Nino this year before we were already close to strong El Nino values?

 

Please don't use this as an excuse to pointlessly attack AGW, as in our previous exchanges, we know what your opinions are there and this has nothing to do with it.

 

Don't worry BFTV not a mention of AGW in this post [apart from that :-) ] but those posts were relative to winter 14/15 not for winter 15/16 and to counter projections that it may be strong for and impacting our last winter.  Strong El Ninos for winter concern me as I seem to have it as being a negative for cold for UK/NW Europe for some reason.

Having said that maybe winter 14/15 was impacted by it as it prepared itself to develop and become what looks like a potential super nino position.  

 

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

I extracted the IOBW data and made some linear correlations with it. The positive phase looks very similar to the Glosea5 and POAMA forecasts. IOBW certainly is also one of the strong forcings in the seasonal model output.

 

194165117882574218.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Thundery or Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Reading, Berkshire

It will be interesting to see how the warm STT's off the west coast of North America interact with the strengthened ST jet during the winter months and how that has an influence further down the line for Europe.

 

From what i've looked into +QBO winters combined with El Nino are generally mostly mild for western Europe but It depends on how other signals such as the stratosphere, solar output ect all interlink. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

With regards to the 97/8 nino does anyone know what phase other factors were in eg QBO, PDO etc.  Will the overall global pattern influence be the same?  I seem to have a view in back of my mind that strong El Nino isn't a cold winter bringer for UK/NW Europe?  Any thoughts or facts folks that dispel those fears

 

 

 

regards

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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