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E.N.S.O. Discussion


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland

my thoughts are a strong el nino promotes mild and wet winters in the UK with a strong Icelandic and possible enhancement of a euro high..so I would hedge my bets in this direction at the moment

 

From the perspective of snow on the Scottish Mountains and thus snowsports seasons here, there does seem to be a tendency for strong El Nino's to push things to one extreme or the other. Some of the best seasons and absolute worst have coincided with strong El Ninos. Mild and wet winters for the vast majority of the population (including low levels in the North of Scotland) doesn't always mean poor snow years in the hills, DJFM period in 2014 was milder than some really poor seasons in terms of North of Scotland mean temperature, but the snow fall on the mountains was exceptionally heavy particularly on the West Coast. 

 

Big difference in 2014 was snow fall level was almost constantly just below 2000ft with not many days of lying snow at 1000ft or lower, while this year it was possible to ski to 1000ft at Glencoe for many weeks of the season, which is very unusual given it's West Coast location. Of course I'm looking for different things from many on here, I'd happily trade my low level snow for a repeat of 2014 in the mountains, with fewer weekend gales.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I think you are getting your years mixed up - it was winter 09/10 that saw Modoki conditions. December 2010 was a moderate La Nina.

 

 

Whoops... I really need to get some more links together so that I can review the data before making posts, rather than relying on what's clearly insufficient memory  :doh:

 

Great post by the way  :good:

 

Last winter, the atmosphere spent a lot of time in a more La Nina like state, which I think may have been down to residual positive SST anomalies in the western Pacific. I'm surprised that the Pacific pattern was so close to the Modoki composite to be honest.

 

I wonder, what is the outcome from that correlation and regression method you showed a snapshot of when working with only strong Modoki events, or weak ones? Same goes for east Pacific events. If someone knows a means of undertaking such analysis, I'd greatly appreciate your advice  :friends:

 

What with the emerging hints of a 'tripole' in the Atlantic SSTs this year such as we had in 2010, I'm starting to explore the potential for a cold Nov/Dec combination, just out of interest/hope (yes, I have a 'give me a cold winter' mode waiting for the slightest excuse to activate...  :ninja: ). Obviously this particular train of thought is not to be followed up in this thread, but the time will come before long I imagine! :wink:

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

A new ENSO paper, published today.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2743.html

 

Abstract.....

 

 

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A new ENSO paper, published today.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2743.html

 

Abstract.....

 

Interesting. Many models had predicted a weakening of the Walker cell and associated surface easterlies, but evidence suggests that the opposite has happened over most of the last 2 decades, leading to the La Nina dominant period and excess surface heat being taken into the ocean.

I think what they need to get a better grip of is the drivers of the IPO/PDO, which seem to strongly modulate ENSO variability.

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

a strong one like I said at the start of my summary...plus it only my opinion on the forth coming winter...you never know I might be wrong.

Yeah..but you still didn't answer the question. What 'type' of strong el nino? .......Modoki for example. That would be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: snow. snow and more snow
  • Location: brentwood

Yeah..but you still didn't answer the question. What 'type' of strong el nino? .......Modoki for example. That would be interesting.

Cooling already (although only slightly) on the peruvian coast. So we could be looking at modoki then? I agree that would be more interesting, especially for a uk winter I believe (and hope!)

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

Cooling already (although only slightly) on the peruvian coast. So we could be looking at modoki then? I agree that would be more interesting, especially for a uk winter I believe (and hope!)

 

 

Yeah..but you still didn't answer the question. What 'type' of strong el nino? .......Modoki for example. That would be interesting.

 

It is all about this paper http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016493/full

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Posted
  • Location: brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: snow. snow and more snow
  • Location: brentwood
I'll thank you for that link now as after a quick read through the opening paragraph I think it may take me some days rather than hours to understand fully(if ever!) :)
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Cooling already (although only slightly) on the peruvian coast. So we could be looking at modoki then? I agree that would be more interesting, especially for a uk winter I believe (and hope!)

 

I wouldn't take too much notice of the short term like that. Different regions cool and warm over a few days all the day. It's the longer term (weeks to months) trends you need to keep an eye on.

 

Also, if this El Nino end up as strong as some predictions, the comparisons with the modoki events may not be so accurate as they were mainly weak or moderate El Ninos.

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Posted
  • Location: brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: snow. snow and more snow
  • Location: brentwood

This is probably a very basic question to ask, but maybe because it's so basic I'm really struggling to find any info: the cold atlantic, is this to do with el nino in any way or is it something that happens regardless? Is it a regular occurrence over time? Is this/last year anything exceptional? Thanks in advance

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

This is probably a very basic question to ask, but maybe because it's so basic I'm really struggling to find any info: the cold atlantic, is this to do with el nino in any way or is it something that happens regardless? Is it a regular occurrence over time? Is this/last year anything exceptional? Thanks in advance

 

There was some discussion here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83554-autumn-2015/page-8

 

BFTV's posts and links are well worth your time reading.

 

A switch to the negative phase of the AMO is suggested here (ignore the slightly hyperbolic headline):

 

http://theconversation.com/the-atlantic-is-entering-a-cool-phase-that-will-change-the-worlds-weather-42497

 

Edit: It's probably best to pursue the topic in the Autumn thread too, rather than here. 

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

Looking like hints of cooling off the coast of Peru. We could end up with a central based El Nino therefore a Modoki. This could be interesting...........

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Looking like hints of cooling off the coast of Peru. We could end up with a central based El Nino therefore a Modoki. This could be interesting...........

 

Possible, but looking at the subsurface heat anomalies, the cooling may have just been a temporary blip.

 

KvtRrmU.gif

 

As always, we just have to wait and see.

 

EDIT: A new NOAA blog here, just so happens to be looking the different warming pattern in historical ENSO events and where the current one might be headed https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster%E2%80%99s-view-extreme-el-ni%C3%B1o-eastern-pacific

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Not entirely sure if this is the right thread but have just an interesting article about EL Nino, ok most of it is about the impact it may have stateside. 

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Hurricane_Schwartz_El_Nino_and_winter_A_first_look_from_August.html

 

This has got me curious though...

 

 

A recent blog by Todd Crawford of WSI showed some interesting developments. The AO was negative practically all of July. He showed that the 10 “blockiest†July's ALL were followed by –AO winters. This means that, if history repeats itself, another “big†winter is possible, despite the strong El Niño.

 

Not sure if there is any evidence out there to prove the statement, but clearly sounds like potential for a good deal of blocking perhaps this side of the pond. 
 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

EDIT: A new NOAA blog here, just so happens to be looking the different warming pattern in historical ENSO events and where the current one might be headed https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster%E2%80%99s-view-extreme-el-ni%C3%B1o-eastern-pacific

 

A very interesting blog, thanks for linking to it. Easy enough to understand even for a relative layman like myself too. I thought the two graphs showing 'C index' and 'E index' were particularly interesting and it'll be fascinating to see where the 2015 lines continue to head.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Not entirely sure if this is the right thread but have just an interesting article about EL Nino, ok most of it is about the impact it may have stateside. 

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Hurricane_Schwartz_El_Nino_and_winter_A_first_look_from_August.html

 

This has got me curious though...

 

 

A recent blog by Todd Crawford of WSI showed some interesting developments. The AO was negative practically all of July. He showed that the 10 “blockiest†July's ALL were followed by –AO winters. This means that, if history repeats itself, another “big†winter is possible, despite the strong El Niño.

 

Not sure if there is any evidence out there to prove the statement, but clearly sounds like potential for a good deal of blocking perhaps this side of the pond. 

 

 

Bryan, the Todd Crawford blog mentioned is here:

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

 

(Edit: I should warn those of a sensitive disposition, that it contains some significant ramping.) 

Edited by Yarmy
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

 

 

. The AO was negative practically all of July. He showed that the 10 “blockiest†July's ALL were followed by –AO winters. This means that, if history repeats itself, another “big†winter is possible, despite the strong El Niño.

 

From an observational point of view, i have been more than impressed with the amount of blocking over Greenland. Whether this has been driven by El Nino or other factors, I know not.

 

More importantly, will it continue into the Winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Good to see our main man back posting, I have a feeling that post will be very popular with the NW readership. I will have a good read of the above post and see what I can absorb into that little brain of mine.  :hi:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

GP, could the difference with 1972/73 be due to the -ve PDO dominance around that time? All other El Nino mentioned events coincided with strong +ve PDO values, whereas 1972/73 managed to maintain -ve PDO values despite the El Nino.

 

You also have the brevity of the 72/73 event, which went from La NIna 3.4 SST values, to strong El Nino and back to La Nina in just 16 months (using 3 month centered average), compared to 1982/83 (26 months), 1997/1998 (29 months) and this event so far (15 months) which still has a way to go.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

Not a great fan of using the PDO to interpolate AAM from as its long duration tends to smooth out any meaningful relationships.

 

Just looking at the Pacific windflow anomalies for those years, I suspect that the lack of tropical - extratropical interactions during 1972 was the most likely candidate in driving the low AAM regime. Worth reiterating that this year tropical activity is relatively high (currently standing at 197% accumulated cyclone energy compared to normal for this point) and there appears to be much more tropical - extratropical interaction going on.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Perhaps the cold phase of the PDO suppresses cyclone activity and there is connection?

 

This has some relevance to that

 

PDO modulation of ENSO effect on tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the western North Pacific

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCwQFjABahUKEwipw-zp3czHAhWFXBQKHTzhC8k&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aoml.noaa.gov%2Fphod%2Fart_10.1007_s00382-015-2563-8.pdf&ei=J9TgVemTLIW5UbzCr8gM&usg=AFQjCNHaI_7itrLdg4FtSrWVYwfTQBfamg&sig2=9Z9t1-Y8flTRSSRxye0Izg&cad=rja

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest ENSO update from the BOM

 

The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled, with sea surface temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weak trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Weekly tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies (i.e. difference from normal) in the central Pacific are now at their highest values since 1997–98, though still remain more than half a degree below the peak observed during 1997–98.
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific will continue to warm, with the largest anomalies occurring later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn. The 2015 event has, so far, been following a normal El Niño life cycle.
 
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