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E.N.S.O. Discussion


Gray-Wolf

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The latest weekly ENSO update is here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

The July 3.4 anomaly was +1.6C, the second warmest on record (back to 1950) after 1997 (+1.7C). The current 3.4 anomaly is +1.9C. If it continues to warm during the month, it could be the largest +ve anomaly for any August on record (warmest is 1997 at +2.02C)

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

I flew out to visit my grandparents in Santa Cruz during that 1997 El Niño, I wonder how this one will affect the desperate drought?

http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/sustain/ENSO.html

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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

Not only stratosphere and hurricanes, I also do 3D maps of ElNino. :)

oi.pngods.png

And sea surface height.

ocds.png

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Who's up for climbing Mt. El Nino then?  :D

 

Wicked maps there Recretos, I look forward to the 3D stratosphere measurements again this winter - I was lurking in the shadows here when you dished those out last winter, much to everyone's amazement  8)

 

 

Just read a blog comment over on 'wunderground' by 'StormTrackerScott' which is an interesting read:

 

"This 3rd Kelvin is no joke. Continuing to build and also hints on the TAO of the strongest WWB so far this year showing up west of the Date Line. We should also notice that 2015 is doing something that 1997 couldn't do and that is shove 30C SST's into Nino 3.4 sub surface. Giving credence to all these model projections showing 2.5C to 2.8C ENSO."

 

Complimenting this is the following image:

 

Dep_Sec_EQ_5d.gif

 

 

...however it's the "hints on the TAO of the strongest WWB so far this year" that really get me thinking. We've already had some exceptional WWBs so far this year, something even stronger this month would be astounding.

 

In case you're wondering - I too am pondering as to what the 'TAO' is...?  :unsure2: 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

'In case you're wondering - I too am pondering as to what the 'TAO' is...?  :unsure2: '

 

​Ancient Chinese philosophy? Your guess is as good as mine! :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

is that a good thing?

 

With regard to what? El Nino can have many different effects on different places.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

You may as well ask us to name 'The Best Thing Ever'... it's all relative  :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

my thoughts are a strong el nino promotes mild and wet winters in the UK with a strong Icelandic and possible enhancement of a euro high..so I would hedge my bets in this direction at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest climate.gov ENSO blog post :

 

August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious
Author: Emily Becker
Thursday, August 13, 2015
As of August, NOAA and IRI forecasters are predicting this El Niño will peak in the late fall/early winter with 3-month-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region near or exceeding 2.0°C (3.6°F) above normal. If this forecast comes true, it will place the 2015 event among the strongest El Niños in the (admittedly short) 1950-2015 historical record. What would this mean for expected impacts in the United States?

 

 
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

my thoughts are a strong el nino promotes mild and wet winters in the UK with a strong Icelandic and possible enhancement of a euro high..so I would hedge my bets in this direction at the moment

 

Depends on what el nino it is.....

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Purely as a matter of interest, and not meant as a forecast, it's interesting to take look at the winter of 97/98 for the UK and the US. plus it would have the added bonus of extending the mod thread hibernation period and might require a suicide watch.

 

December. Mild, wet, and changeable, with a severe gale on Christmas Eve in the west. 111 mph reported at the Lleyn Penisula; 79mph at Cosby. The Christmas Eve Storm was probably the worst since December 1993, possibly since the 1990 Burns Day Storm. It was particularly bad over Ireland, north Wales, and northwest England. Heavy rain. There was structural damage in the northwest. It was also very mild on Christmas Eve, with 15.2C recorded at Chivenor. Altogether there were four storms over this windy Christmas period. There was a pressure reading on 1045mbar at Lerwick (Shetland) on the 16th. It was also very mild on Christmas Eve in the west: 15.2C in Bristol and at Chivenor (north Devon). Quite dull in the east and north: the week before Christmas was the dullest of the year.

 

January. Very mild overall (5.2C CET), but drier and colder from the 20th on. Sunny and wet. A wet and windy first week, with particularly damaging gales 3-4th. The Sussex area was particularly badly affected, and then Selsey was hit by a damaging tornado on the night of the 6th-7th. Just before midnight (11.45pm) the 100 mph tornado cut a 700m track from west to east through the town, causing much damage (destroying one of Patrick Moore's observatories), accompanied by golf ball size hailstones. The damage was estimated as costing £2 million. Conservatories flattened, walls destroyed, parts of rooves torn off, fences ripped up ... Thunderstorms were widespread along the south coast that night. Warm spell midmonth, including a 17.3 recorded at Prestatyn on the 10th, 15C at Heathrowe on the 9th (the highest for 50 years), 14.1 in Hampstead, 16.7 at Hawarden, and 16.0 at Saunton Sands (Devon). There was a brief cold snap, with snow in the north, midmonth.

 

 

February. Extremely mild (7.3C CET); indeed, equal with 1990 as the mildest this century. Particularly mild in the English Midlands and central Scotland. Cold end in the north. Very dry in the south, but wet in western and northern Scotland. Parts of the southeast had the sunniest February of the century. In an exceptionally mild spell mid-month (12-15th) of warm and sunny weather, the new record high for February was set: 19.7C at Greenwich (London) on the 13th, and also 19.6C in Worcester. Tivington made 19.1C on the 14th, and Prestatyn 18.1C on the 15th, but high temperatures were wide-spread as a result of warm air and warm sunshine (an unusual combination for mild winter days) 13C was exceeded somewhere in the country every day from the 8th to the 20th. The high temperatures also occurred in the middle of the month.

 

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/britweather.htm

 

 

The first two months of 1998 were the warmest and wettest in the 104-year record of temperatures and precipitation measurements for the contiguous 48 states. During the period January - February, the national average temperature was 37.5 degrees F compared with a normal of 32.1 degrees F. The previous record was 37.0 degrees F in 1990. For precipitation, 6.01 inches fell, compared with a normal of 4.05 inches. The previous record was 5.7 inches in 1979.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CCsQFjADahUKEwj_iZeQy6jHAhWBuhoKHdrNBMM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww1.ncdc.noaa.gov%2Fpub%2Fdata%2Ftechrpts%2Ftr9802%2Ftr9802.pdf&ei=teDNVb_bD4H1atqbk5gM&usg=AFQjCNEP61hJpc46dZ4gYFeW02XBDzDE1Q&sig2=jyxcvHAMIPw9JpqZRCwdyw&bvm=bv.99804247,d.d2s&cad=rja

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Depends on what el nino it is.....

a strong one like I said at the start of my summary...plus it only my opinion on the forth coming winter...you never know I might be wrong.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Is that a good thing or bad thing for our UK winter? simple question really

 

Since 1980 basin wide Nino's (what we have) have produced a bias towards AO values below -1 in Jan and Feb. The AO of course is statistically correlated with the CET although no guarantee. 

 

 

A good fit with past lengths which suggested a Sep-Jan peak. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The spatial distribution of Pacific heat anomalies is likely an important factor, though intensity does play a part.

 

I've heard it said that East Pacific events (the classic type) tend to promote unusually strong highs over Europe later in the winter... which ties in with recent CFSv2 modelling (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html).

 

In 2010 an 'El Nino Modoki' (more central-Pacific based) was followed by a very negative NAO in December. I've seen that attributed to the El Nino, but also to SSTs in the North Atlantic (a tripole setup - warm subtropics, cold west of Europe and warm once you're as far north as Iceland. Similar to the current pattern in fact!). Which was more important? I can't really say to be honest  :unknw:

 

 

We could do with some decent wave breaking events into the stratosphere, as with so much extra warmth in the atmosphere, those would have the potential to bring about SSW events later in the winter. Yes - I was lurking on the forums during those warming events in Dec-Jan this year that very nearly went the whole hog but in the end proved insufficient to overcome what I seem to recall was fairly poor positioning  :rolleyes:

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The spatial distribution of Pacific heat anomalies is likely an important factor, though intensity does play a part.

 

I've heard it said that East Pacific events (the classic type) tend to promote unusually strong highs over Europe later in the winter... which ties in with recent CFSv2 modelling (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html).

 

In 2010 an 'El Nino Modoki' (more central-Pacific based) was followed by a very negative NAO in December. I've seen that attributed to the El Nino, but also to SSTs in the North Atlantic (a tripole setup - warm subtropics, cold west of Europe and warm once you're as far north as Iceland. Similar to the current pattern in fact!). Which was more important? I can't really say to be honest  :unknw:

 

 

We could do with some decent wave breaking events into the stratosphere, as with so much extra warmth in the atmosphere, those would have the potential to bring about SSW events later in the winter. Yes - I was lurking on the forums during those warming events in Dec-Jan this year that very nearly went the whole hog but in the end proved insufficient to overcome what I seem to recall was fairly poor positioning  :rolleyes:

Very interesting post. Do you know if the current El Nino is east pacific based or modoki?
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Some research, as opposed to guesswork and cherrypicking, from KNMI. An interesting series of maps as the intensity of any effect is easily observable. For the UK, no effect, probably as other factors closer to home override them. 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/research/global_climate/enso/effects/

 

nino34_logprcp_DJF0.png

 

This is Dec-Feb for precipitation, blue is higher, red is lower

 

And for temperature, red is higher, blue is lower.

 

nino34_temp_DJF.png

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

The spatial distribution of Pacific heat anomalies is likely an important factor, though intensity does play a part.

 

I've heard it said that East Pacific events (the classic type) tend to promote unusually strong highs over Europe later in the winter... which ties in with recent CFSv2 modelling (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html).

 

In 2010 an 'El Nino Modoki' (more central-Pacific based) was followed by a very negative NAO in December. I've seen that attributed to the El Nino, but also to SSTs in the North Atlantic (a tripole setup - warm subtropics, cold west of Europe and warm once you're as far north as Iceland. Similar to the current pattern in fact!). Which was more important? I can't really say to be honest  :unknw:

 

 

We could do with some decent wave breaking events into the stratosphere, as with so much extra warmth in the atmosphere, those would have the potential to bring about SSW events later in the winter. Yes - I was lurking on the forums during those warming events in Dec-Jan this year that very nearly went the whole hog but in the end proved insufficient to overcome what I seem to recall was fairly poor positioning  :rolleyes:

 

I think you are getting your years mixed up - it was winter 09/10 that saw Modoki conditions. December 2010 was a moderate La Nina.

 

09  MArS4ky.png   10  x9Kjojy.png

 

The Modoki has an opposite impact on European winter, promoting cold blocking rather than Azores mild ridging.

 

KYFuofz.png

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

 

An edit to add the reanalysis for last winter, which was classed as Modoki. This matches well with the composite as far as the Pacific sector is concerned but poorly on the Atlantic side of things. Clearly, many other factors play their part in the final picture.

 

HOofSQT.gif

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Amazing how long that very warm water has stayed over the northeastern pacific. The ridge has almost been stuck there for months and months now as a result.

Unless that changes and the pattern changes, with an El Niño to boot along with it. I can only see a generally typical mild and wet dominated Atlantic winter.

Of course there are many other factors that need to be considered, so this may not be correct. Just a thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest weekly ENSO update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

The Nino 3.4 anomaly is at 2.0C for the first time since February 1998, while upper ocean heat content has hit another new high for the year.

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Posted
  • Location: brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: snow. snow and more snow
  • Location: brentwood

Think this el nino is turning into a modoki event as the warmth from the eastern Pacific seems to have blown westwards now.

Remember reading that it was likely to earlier in the year. Am I right in thinking if it does that gives us a good shot at a nice cold snowy 2nd half of winter?

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