E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Midlands Ice Age]

A round up of the ensemble means of the main ENSO models. Courtesy of Phil Klotzbach's twitter.

 

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach

 

 

He's also shown the latest ECM plume with other Ninos to highlight how extreme the forecast is.

 

 

Latest CFS is backing off the heat in region 1+2 for October and keeping the large anomaly out in area 3+4

 

  

 

Could we be looking at a very warm Modoki type event - if so, the hysterics of the press may yet be on the right trail of a cold European winter - just not the correct reasoning.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83135-strong-el-nino-now-forecast-how-will-it-impact-the-weather/?p=3202467

 

Thanks Nouska for the balanced post.

The next week could be fairly crucial as to the 'what we will see'  in terms of the final outcome for the strength of the El Nino..

 

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly ENSO update here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Methuselah]

Talking of 'balance', surely the official ENSO update is about as 'balanced' as one can get. Or do some folks think they know more than the professionals? IMO, the 'sceptics' idea of 'balance' reads rather like bias?

[knocker]

A discussion by Dr Ricky Rood (IMO he's always worth a read)

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=335

Edited June 2, 2015 by knocker

[Midlands Ice Age]

The summary of the report by Dr Ricky Rood is this:

 

 

"Undoubtedly, globally 2015 will be warm, hot perhaps a better word. El Niño will be interesting. It is hard to justify the forecast of an extreme event; however, the situation on the ground is outside of our experience, and we should be on the lookout for surprises."

 

To me it also looks like a balanced summary!. It looks like Nouska's summary was a balanced one afterall!

 

MIA

Edited June 2, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

Upper ocean heat content climbing once again, unlike last year where it was plummeting.

 

 

Nino 3.4 index climbs to the highest point since 2010.

 

[Methuselah]

^^ Is this situation likely to have ramifications over here, come July, August, September and October, Sam?

[damianslaw]

I've heard some mentioning prospect of a modoki El Nino i.e. where the warmth is centred more centrally, anyone know what this might mean..

[Nouska]

I've heard some mentioning prospect of a modoki El Nino i.e. where the warmth is centred more centrally, anyone know what this might mean..

 

Have a play with the JMA ENSO Atmosphere Circulation Regression and Correlation map - using the drop down parameters, it will give some ideas on the different patterns that can be expected in different phases.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

 

Read the explanation page (link above the map) if you are unsure of all the terms. Hope that helps.

 

PS, still looking to cool 1+2 later but currently not enough for true Modoki.

[Evening thunder]

Based on that it does seem El Nino has some correlation with poorer/cooler June's but a better July and August. 

[Methuselah]

Based on that it does seem El Nino has some correlation with poorer/cooler June's but a better July and August. 

Thanks for that, ET; it's what I'd thought I'd read, or heard, somewhere too. I just wish I could remember where.

[johnholmes]

not the right thread I feel but of interest so I would be grateful if a mod/admin could put this in whichever of the climate areas you feel it belongs, I never venture in there.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Edited June 12, 2015 by johnholmes

[knocker]

Discussion by Jeff Masters

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3015

[knocker]

Recent SST departures in the El Niño regions.

 

[http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml â€¦]

[wishfulwinter]

Another article implying el nino is going to strengthen is here:

http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/06/el_nino_is_officially_back_and.html

I read a while back that we were possibly looking at el nino modoki but can't find anything more about that now. From my limited understanding that changes world weather in yet more ways. Do you know where I can find any further info please? Thank you

[summer blizzard]

I read a while back that we were possibly looking at el nino modoki but can't find anything more about that now. From my limited understanding that changes world weather in yet more ways. Do you know where I can find any further info please? Thank you

 

Right now it's looking basin wide. How it develops over time may change though. 

[Don]

Right now it's looking basin wide. How it develops over time may change though. 

 

 

I think some of the models were/are predicting a basin wide El Nino initially before developing into a Modoki event later in the year.  

[summer blizzard]

I think some of the models were/are predicting a basin wide El Nino initially before developing into a Modoki event later in the year.

Hope so. East or basin wide screw the hurricane season.

At least we seem to be losing the high PDO values.

[wishfulwinter]

CFSV2 is showing for el nino modoki later in year; it's also showing much higher sst anomalies (of 3c above average) compared to jamstec and ECMWF going with 2c. Wouldnt that put it on par with 97/98 or even bigger?

[sundog]

Is it true that an el nino modoki increases the chance of a cold winter or does so at least in the eastern u.s.?

[summer blizzard]

Is it true that an el nino modoki increases the chance of a cold winter or does so at least in the eastern u.s.?

 

East based or basin wide Nino's are golden for the eastern US with a +PNA pattern or during periods of -AO a high over Canada with Low over the US. 

 

West based Nino's (Modiki) are rare and only winter 03 and winter 10 fit the bill properly since 82 however winters 91, 95, 05 and 15 (the winter just gone) also exhibited a weaker pattern for a time in terms of 1+2, 3+4 anomolies.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A powerful westerly wind burst is currently underway and forecast to continue for several days. This should ensure that El NIno lasts the year, and could provide the necessary push to get things into the strong category.

 

 

 

The MJO is forecast to become strong and move into the western Pacific, should should encourage tropical activity and further increase the chances of westerly wind anomalies.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly ENSO update here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

It looks very likely now that this El NIno will persist well into 2016 (>85% probability), with the chances growing of a challenger to the great El Ninos of 1997/1998 and 1982/83.

[summer blizzard]

Impressive..

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest update from the BOM

 

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.