E.N.S.O. Discussion

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Thanks for the reply BFTV.

I guess I was confusing the SOI with the MJO. I didn't realise that the MJO was worldwide.

My original question was related to the number of cyclones moving north and/or south, as I was wondering whether possibly, this could act as mechanism for tranferring heat north or south across the equator. I know the net effect of these cyclones is thought to be negligible, but I just wondered whether there could be an effect of warming/cooling the SST's?, which if these cyclones are sustained might impact temperatures more widely?

MIA

 

The SOI is related to the air pressure difference between Darwin and Tahiti. It tends to remain -ve in El Nino set ups, +ve during La Nina.

 

I suppose the tropical systems could take heat away from the equatorial regions, but not much. Like I said, tropical systems can't operate very close to the equator. However, their wind field can have an influence, but that's usually to promote westerly winds which push warmer water across the Pacific and enhance the chances of El NIno forming. El Nino can also promote extra Pacific tropical storm formation by adding additional moisture to the regional atmosphere.

[knocker]

There

 

 
Thanks for the reply BFTV.

I guess I was confusing the SOI with the MJO. I didn't realise that the MJO was worldwide.

My original question was related to the number of cyclones moving north and/or south, as I was wondering whether possibly, this could act as mechanism for tranferring heat north or south across the equator. I know the net effect of these cyclones is thought to be negligible, but I just wondered whether there could be an effect of warming/cooling the SST's?, which if these cyclones are sustained might impact temperatures more widely?

MIA

 

There is an easy to read explanation of the MJO here.

 

http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf

[Gael_Force]

There

 

 

There is an easy to read explanation of the MJO here.

 

http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate/iwcs/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf

And a nice SLP gif from Adrian Mattthews

 

 

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

And a nice SLP gif from Adrian Mattthews

 

 

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

 

GF BFTV and knocks

Very nice cross reference and animations above which have helped me greatly to envisage what is going on.

MIA

[Interitus]

There is discussion of El Nino, MJO and the current early start to the cyclone season on Jeff Master's blog - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2945

[knocker]

Current SSTs and anomaly

Courtesy weatherbell

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest animation of the kelvin wave development shows a large area with 5C+ anomalies now present, and moving toward the surface.

 

 

Upper ocean heat content is now approaching the record values seen last Spring.

 

 

Combined with this, we have most ENSO regions now responding to the upwelling kevlin wave, with rapid increases in temperature in the Nino 1, 2 and 3 regions.

 

 

 

 

 

We also have the SOI index firmly in negative (El Nino) territory and expected to drop even further over the coming days.

 

 

 

 

Potential there to turn into a moderate or strong El Nino, certainly worth keeping an eye on things.

[summer blizzard]

Latest animation of the kelvin wave development shows a large area with 5C+ anomalies now present, and moving toward the surface.

 

 

Upper ocean heat content is now approaching the record values seen last Spring.

 

 

Combined with this, we have most ENSO regions now responding to the upwelling kevlin wave, with rapid increases in temperature in the Nino 1, 2 and 3 regions.

 

 

 

 

 

We also have the SOI index firmly in negative (El Nino) territory and expected to drop even further over the coming days.

 

 

 

 

Potential there to turn into a moderate or strong El Nino, certainly worth keeping an eye on things.

 

Rats. Nino 1+2 responding will kill the early hurricane season. 

Bftv, what do you think el nino will do to this summer? As a lot of models are forecasting a wet and cool affair, unless the models start to flip we haven't really got a complete idea of what it's going to do. Know el nino impacts are weaker in Europe, but can still be effectual in some way, shape or form.

 

El Nino does not lead to warm or cool summers statistically (or La Nina i think) but it's worth noting that over 80% of our 18C+ months have occurred with +MEI values.

Does look similar to last year, even the cool water in the west.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't think we can just look to Nino alone for our summer forecast? There are plenty of other irons in the fire that could hold impact? The continuation of the triple R over west US sets up the potential path of the Jet over us and the 'flavour' that positioning puts on the weather passing us? A deep trough on the Atlantic seaboard and we could be in for a summer with the Jet screaming well north of us?....... then we know what happens if it peaks over Greenland and we end up eith the trough next to SW Ireland......

 

EDIT: Anyhow the CFSv2 is still being quite bullish about the nino temps over summer with the extreme runs all going super nino and the 'balance' looking for a cool off over the summer ( as the trades strengthen?) and then a resumption in warming come early autumn.......... should we see the atmosphere fail again to help nino are we looking at going into another year with Threshold Nino temps??? Just how much warm water is there in that pile????

Edited April 1, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest ENSO update from the CPC is here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Interesting to see how strongly the CFS V2 now favours a moderate to strong El Nino

 

 

 

 

Some data have updated since then. For example, the upper ocean heat content is still increasing and is now above this time last year, and the animation show a large area of >6C anomalies now present.

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The CPC now going with a 70% chance of El NIno continuing through the summer, and a 60% chance of lasting through Autumn.

 

Synopsis: There is an approximately 70% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern

Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 60% chance it will last through autumn.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[summer blizzard]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

 

Looking at this its interesting to see (if we take 5 monthly values as the Nino/Nina definition) west and east based events in addition to basin wide, a wide variety. 

 

From this it looks like the last basin wide Nino was 06, the last basin wide Nina was 11 (though more like the second phase of the 10-11 double Nina), but since then we've had an east based Nina in 13, an east based Nino in 14 and the current west based Nino.

 

I'm hoping that we avoid anything east based or basin wide since the hurricane season seems okay in a west based Nino.

[knocker]

BOM now joined CPC

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150414.pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

We'll see what the June forecasts look like? By then we should be well beyond the 'barrier' and get a clearer picture of the nino we face? Currently the CFSv2 just keeps giving us a 2c+ event by autumn...... which seems a tad 'warm'?

Edited April 15, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

The Pacific is in an El Nino advancing state. +6C anomalous warm (deep thermocline) sub-surface water moving eastward

 

https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy

[BornFromTheVoid]

Moderate El Nino now looking almost certain, with the chances of a strong event growing.

 

The warm kelvin wave continues to surface, so warming of most Nino regions is expected to continue over the coming weeks.

 

 

The latest CFS forecast has the 3.4 anomaly well into the moderate strength by mid summer, and strong by Autumn.

 

 

The latest surface wind anomalies show the westerlies spreading through the equatorial Pacific over the next few days, indicative of Nino conditions (sending warm water from the west across to the east).

 

 

 

 

 

Overall, El NIno conditions are now becoming established and only look like strengthening over the coming months. An El Nino summer is now almost certain.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Bftv what do you think el nino will do to our summer? Do you think it'll sink our jet stream further south or don't you think it'll have any impact whatsoever?

 

Impossible to say. A lot depends on where the strongest SST anomalies are in the Pacific. Even then, the influence of ENSO on our weather can be drowned out by other factors (I'm sure the growing cold pool in the mid Atlantic is having some effect).

 

It will probably be one of those cases where, after the summer is done, researchers will look back and identify whatever teleconnections caused what.

 

Edited April 24, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Upgrade]

Hi guys , still here and check in to net weather every now and then from down here in Melbourne!

Australian Bureau of Meteorology going quite strongly for El Niño now in their latest fortnightly update today. Looks like it's on the cards.....it's been a dry autumn here in Vic so far, we are hoping for more rain but El ninos usually mean dry weather for South East Aus. Interesting times.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150428.pdf

Edited April 28, 2015 by Upgrade

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I certainly think that a medium to strong El Nino is on the cards.  For me peaking towards NH autumn 2015 in line with the lunar standstill minima Oct 15.  Last lunar standstills were 1998 and 1982, two very big Nino years....another on the way?   This year has been circled by me for sometime as the tipping point, if this El Nino follows the last two standstills its going to be strong one, for me its what follows that will be the important part.

 

BFTP

Edited May 12, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

It's a long running saga this isn't it? Looks as though the nino conditions will trundle on into 2016? The think for me will be the behaviour of the trades through to Sept as this will show us if we are easing into positive IPO conditions as well as the PDO flip. Should we see plenty of light winds and reversals then the global temp will not only have Nino pushing global temps but also the rest of the Pacific Basin putting heat into the atmosphere.

 

Certainly expecting another record year atmospheric temp wise!

[knocker]

The eastern Pacific is heating up. Massive warming at the surface now.

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/594987513388793858

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exiting the 'spring barrier' has certainly pepped up the forecasts somewhat? Will they alter the scale if future runs keep pushing 3c over the 3.4 region?? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest weekly update is here, with plenty of graphs an images.

 

One thing it doesn't have is the chart below, which predicts a powerful westerly wind burst soon which may help to reinforce the current El Nino conditions and push things into the moderate to strong category.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

 

 

Never known them change the scale on these  maps before????

[summer blizzard]

 

 

Never known them change the scale on these  maps before????

 

Almost always overpredict.