E.N.S.O. Discussion

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes Knocker, weak Nino....and no signs at all of the super nino touted....beautiful

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Yes Knocker, weak Nino....and no signs at all of the super nino touted....beautiful

 

BFTP

Touted by whom, Fred? That's the first I've heard of it...

[BornFromTheVoid]

I don't think many thought a super Nino was on the way, did they?

 

Anyway, the PDO has been positive all year and it seems possible that this year could be the most positive since 1997 and more positive than any year in the previous negative phase. It will be interesting to see if we get a return to negative values next year, or whether the idea of 30 year phases held by many needs to be re-examined.

[knocker]

Yes Knocker, weak Nino....and no signs at all of the super nino touted....beautiful

 

BFTP

 

I'm not sure why that was addressed to me as I've certainly not been touting a super Nino. The only thing I've been touting are tickets for the barbeque on Portreath beach on Xmas day.

[Gael_Force]

I don't think many thought a super Nino was on the way, did they?

 

Anyway, the PDO has been positive all year and it seems possible that this year could be the most positive since 1997 and more positive than any year in the previous negative phase. It will be interesting to see if we get a return to negative values next year, or whether the idea of 30 year phases held by many needs to be re-examined.

 

I've always wondered about that as the graph shows a quite changeable picture in the early part of last century. Are there any studies that give us a proxy clue prior to the temperature record?

[johnholmes]

Touted by whom, Fred? That's the first I've heard of it...

 

yes by whom. certainly not the official NOAA thread which gets posted on the forum each time it is updated, come on lad where please?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I've always wondered about that as the graph shows a quite changeable picture in the early part of last century. Are there any studies that give us a proxy clue prior to the temperature record?

 

There are some historical reconstructions about.

 

 

Apparently a 23 year cycle is strongest, but as the graph shows, there's an awful lot of variability.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/biondi2001/biondi2001.html

[Hocus Pocus]

I think the super Nino was touted more in the blogosphere by certain others who are more interested in agendas than the actual evidence at hand. I haven't seen any such postings of a super Nino at any of the scientific sites that I visit. One thing about this Nino that has stuck out is how long it's taken to develop as at one time a moderate Nino looked almost certain but the lack of coupling between the oceans and the atmosphere has seen a few false dawns regarding this up until recently that is.

Edited December 10, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Midlands Ice Age]

I think the super Nino was touted more in the blogosphere by certain others who are more interested in agendas than the actual evidence at hand. I haven't seen any such postings of a super Nino at any of the scientific sites that I visit. One thing about this Nino that has stuck out is how long it's taken to develop as at one time a moderate Nino looked almost certain but the lack of coupling between the oceans and the atmosphere has seen a few false dawns regarding this up until recently that is.

 

True, but the baton was accepted by GW to suggest that a major event could well be imminent, (in his own enthusiastic style).

 

MIA

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think the super Nino was touted more in the blogosphere by certain others who are more interested in agendas than the actual evidence at hand. I haven't seen any such postings of a super Nino at any of the scientific sites that I visit. One thing about this Nino that has stuck out is how long it's taken to develop as at one time a moderate Nino looked almost certain but the lack of coupling between the oceans and the atmosphere has seen a few false dawns regarding this up until recently that is.

 

At the start of the year there was a massive warm wave set in motion in the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific by a large Westerly Wind Burst (WWB), that caused the subsurface temp anomalies to reach the warmest value on record. This inevitably led to speculation about how strong an El Nino could become if the ocean and atmosphere coupled. Which is valid speculation given the record breaking conditions.

This coupling didn't happen and so we have the weak El Nino conditions gradually developing instead (helped along by a few additional small warm waves).

 

Getting into accusations of agendas and such isn't necessary here.

[Gael_Force]

Many thanks, BFTV. Some interesting ensembles for next year - varying widely from run to run, it would be a challenge to make any prediction at this point.

 

[Hocus Pocus]

At the start of the year there was a massive warm wave set in motion in the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific by a large Westerly Wind Burst (WWB), that caused the subsurface temp anomalies to reach the warmest value on record. This inevitably led to speculation about how strong an El Nino could become if the ocean and atmosphere coupled. Which is valid speculation given the record breaking conditions.

This coupling didn't happen and so we have the weak El Nino conditions gradually developing instead (helped along by a few additional small warm waves).

 

Getting into accusations of agendas and such isn't necessary here.

I wasn't suggesting the professionals were more those who frequent blogospheres and do have agendas BFTV, this is why I stick to official sources for my information and not the blogosphere, sometimes I accept that there is no alternative and occasionally you do get worthwhile stories from both sides of the divide.

[BornFromTheVoid]

People will have different perspectives, HP. That doesn't mean they're driven by agendas, unless you want to claim that those who downplayed the risk of an El Nino developing also had an agenda driven motivation to do so.

 

 

Many thanks, BFTV. Some interesting ensembles for next year - varying widely from run to run, it would be a challenge to make any prediction at this point.

 

 

The latest 3.4 index looks interesting too, weakening into spring and then booming through summer. Of course, all to be taken with a shovel of salt!

 

[Hocus Pocus]

People will have different perspectives, HP. That doesn't mean they're driven by agendas, unless you want to claim that those who downplayed the risk of an El Nino developing also had an agenda driven motivation to do so.

 

 

 

The latest 3.4 index looks interesting too, weakening into spring and then booming through summer. Of course, all to be taken with a shovel of salt!

 

I think both sides are agenda driven at times, that's not to say the majority are though BFTV. Interesting outlook for Nino as I would expect it to fizzle out with us being in the -PDO phase, but then again you just never know as they tend to catch the best out and I suppose that's what makes them so fascinating.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think both sides are agenda driven at times, that's not to say the majority are though BFTV. Interesting outlook for Nino as I would expect it to fizzle out with us being in the -PDO phase, but then again you just never know as they tend to catch the best out and I suppose that's what makes them so fascinating.

 

I agree with your first part. The -ve PDO phase, I'm not so sure about, especially as to whether or not it will weaken the El Nino prospects. We've been PDO +ve for 11 months at least, with no sign of it letting up.

 

 

 

An absolutely fascinating subject though, full agreement there

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

El Nino is weak and to remain weak, that's all we need to know and interestingly many nino signals are muted

 

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not so sure about that BFTP?

 

Sure we have been running near threshold since earlier in the year but we have also been witnessing some unusual behaviours from ENSO over the past few years?

 

Since 2010 we have seen a few bust predictions for a Nino ( including this year!) only for resurgent trades in June/July to squish that potential. This year though atmosphere did not play ball it was a weaker affair and so we continued to run at near threshold temps.

 

The strong trades have built up a phenomenal 'warm pool' over in the west Pacific and any reduction in the winds keeping it pinned there must allow it to relax back into the Ocean? This, without KW's pushing the warmth further east, would produce another Modoki event but we are familiar with seeing a large KW pushing out in late Jan/early Feb ( over recent years) so we might expect this nino to 'plump up' by July?

 

The CFSv2 models have been hinting at this for a few weeks now ( as it has in past years) with a group of members going for a 2.5c plus event by July???

 

I have been saying , since the trades aborted the strong Nino i expected this year, that we might expect a re-run come Jan/Feb but that this time the atmosphere would either 'play ball' ( strong Nino) or not interfere ( so a Modoki event) by summer 2015? There is just too much warm water piled up by the excessive trades to not expect to see such once the Trades fall light ( and gravity takes over!).

[Supercell 89]

Interesting how they've said its been a weak El Nino since summer as the STT's haven't really changed very much since then and remained persistently warm along with the north pacific due to it being in its positive phase, so it does make sense but NOAA don't for the moment seem to agree.  

 

What is more interesting is how that huge kelvin wave never materialised into a full blown enso event, i'm sure that will be one of strong research interest over the next year, given how strong that wave was, I wonder if the warm STT's around Indonesia were part of the reason? 

[summer blizzard]

We almost certainly did have an east based Nino for a time but Nino 3.4 fell to 0, hence why it was never declared.

[Gray-Wolf]

The one thing I'm not seeing being entertained here are the changed forcings that the anomalous Trades have brought. There has been studies into what is driving the phenomena and what lies behind it and , for me, the most compelling study ( and results) are from earlier this year showing the odd behaviour of the Walker Cell driven by a difference in heat content across the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Basins? The study concluded that 'parity' was now close to being established between the basins and ,from what we've seen this year, this appears to be having impact already?

 

If changes driven by warming are having impact then maybe we need think 'outside the box' and not rely too heavily on the past 50yrs of ENSO behaviour to gauge where we go now?

 

I have been trying to incorporate such changes in my thinking ( the anomalous warm pool to the East that enhanced trades have built up, the strength of the trades halting the chances of any atmospheric cooperation, both the IPO and PDO states etc) and what , besides 'normal ' behaviours we might expect to see once the basins reach parity and the Walker Cell stops driving excessive Trades.

 

We may well be on the cusp of a period of rapid warming should we see the Trades relax back to normal working values. The strengthened winds have been shown to be responsible for the burying of heat in the top of the oceans ( instead of it leaching into the atmosphere) for a number of years now esp. across the pacific. It has built a warm pool so mighty that sea levels in the area have risen to record levels ( above the general rises in sea level across the globe) and allowed for the emergence of Super typhoons that could feed on waters up to 100m below ( normally they mix the surface up welling a 'cold track' over where they pass and limiting the energy available for formation).

 

The most obvious ( to me!) issue is what happen to that 'warm pool' once the trades that have built it up to its current height fall lighter? Surely we have to think in terms of the heat that is pinned there and must flow back out into the basin once it is no longer held there?

 

Could it be that we are seeing two events in the ENSO region this time around? Maybe the Nina run we saw was driven by the same? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

PDO remains in the moderately positive range, with November being 1.72. This means that 2014 is almost certain to be the most positive since 1997, and this Autumn, at +1.43, the 5th most positive on record (since 1900).

[Gray-Wolf]

PDO remains in the moderately positive range, with November being 1.72. This means that 2014 is almost certain to be the most positive since 1997, and this Autumn, at +1.43, the 5th most positive on record (since 1900).

 

With that in mind do you think we may now be leaving the period of naturals that brought us the 'faux pause' BFTV? I'm starting to think that even without atmospheric cooperation any relaxing of the trades will allow some of the warm pool they had pushed west to relax back into the central pacific giving a Modoki type plot on the sst's over the 3.4 region?

 

We all know that the 'naturals' move from one state to another over time so are we seeing the first sign of the flip back to positive for the PDO and IPO? 

 

From the global temps this year it would seem we no longer need a full blown Nino to challenge the global temps it took a 'Super Nino' to build only a decade and a half ago? That can't be 'normal'???

 

If the elevated sst's that have helped drive global temps so high this year are a sign that heat is now able to cross into the atmosphere ( before it gets driven down deeper into the ocean) then we may also be seeing the I.P.O. entering into its 'surface heating phase' ( and away from its deep ocean warming one?). None of this is good for global temps.

 

If man made warming has been driving more extreme expressions of the naturals (pushing heat into the oceans via increased wind speeds) then what will the flip side bring us?

 

Will we see a period of heat loss from the amassed heat trapped in the oceans ( including the warm pile in the west Pacific) along with 'normal' heating of the oceans surface entering the atmosphere?

 

Could it be that we no longer need a Nino to spike global temps beyond those that it used to take a Nino ( or 'Super Nino') to drive???

 

2015 will be an interesting one to watch all around I believe? If we do not see Nino develop will we still see a year of global temps challenging the 98' spike purely on the back of 'normal' atmospheric workings?

Edited December 28, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[summer blizzard]

Current wave looks to be weakening from the depth anomaly and becoming increasingly east based.

Probably see weakening to neutral through the spring.

[knocker]

Equatorial tropic Pacific upper atmosphere is adjusting towards La Niña state. What does this mean? Upcoming WSI blog pic.twitter.com/ycwZl8SyOA

[summer blizzard]

According to CFS v2 el nino will weaken only temporarily and then strengthen by june.

 

Predictions from it seem to a bit naff. It never picked up the late 10/early 11 Nina and it was far too bullish about the attempted 12 Nino.

 

Though i do actually agree with it.