E.N.S.O. Discussion

[lorenzo]

El Nino watch continues on the latest IRIC update.

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_update

 

A nice blog here on the forecast and also the model skill from NWS here

 

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/details-october-enso-diagnostic-discussion-trust-verify

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the monthly outlook:

El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

 

The latest weekly report shows the warm wave currently surfacing in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has brought the Nino 3.4 index above 0.5C, which indicates a possible start of Nino like conditions. There is also a second warm wave following the current one which is surfacing, according to the subsurface plots.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

 

There has also been another westerly wind burst in recent days, which is likely to send another warm wave across the Pacific, reinforcing the 2 that are already there.

 

 

 

For the moment, a weak El Nino is looking likely for the winter.

Edited October 20, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[mountain shadow]

Given that El Nino is now likely, does that present a higher than average chance of a colder than average Winter in NW Europe?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Given that El Nino is now likely, does that present a higher than average chance of a colder than average Winter in NW Europe?

 

Both El Nino and La Nina increase the chances of sudden stratospheric warming events, but El Ninos are also associated with a warmer polar stratosphere during winter and a weaker vortex overall. The combination of El Nino and -ve QBO further increases the likelihood of SSW events and a weaker vortex.

Chio would be better equipped to provide a more detailed response though.

[mountain shadow]

Thanks BFTV, things beginning to stack up in favour a colder than average North Western Europe for Winter.

[summer blizzard]

 

Not especially strong but no cold wave so yes, weak El Nino/neutral looks probable.

[Gray-Wolf]

We are beginning to get the first hints that this will be a 'double dip' event and we should look beyond feb to see the main action occurring with

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

 

showing consistently up to half the member going for a 2c+ event by April?

 

This , under the 'novel' forcings we have seen over the past several years, appears to hint at a 'return to normality'? Should we be seeing Atlantic and Pacific basins approaching parity then the drive behind the enhanced trades will fall light and the winds speeds needed to pen up the anomalous warm bulge in the west Pacific will disappear.

 

Global temps , so far this year, seem to have a huge ocean input hinting at this 'change' now occurring and heat being kept at the surface and not buried by enhanced winds? This 'change' should it occur, will lead to not only the incoming energy no longer being 'buried' in the oceans but also some bleeding off of the stored heat.

 

This plus a strong Nino would put global temps up into a record of their own and, should we see global oceans switching to augmenting the AGW signal, a period of sustained high temp years well above the dizzy heights that 98' set.

 

When you look at the 98'-2012 wind anom plots for the Pacific they nicely plot out the Nina/DO-ve patterns so have these augmented winds actually augmented those phases? Will any relax back to normal leave us with all positive naturals for a while?

[Catacol]

We are beginning to get the first hints that this will be a 'double dip' event and we should look beyond feb to see the main action occurring with

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

 

showing consistently up to half the member going for a 2c+ event by April?

 

This , under the 'novel' forcings we have seen over the past several years, appears to hint at a 'return to normality'? Should we be seeing Atlantic and Pacific basins approaching parity then the drive behind the enhanced trades will fall light and the winds speeds needed to pen up the anomalous warm bulge in the west Pacific will disappear.

 

Global temps , so far this year, seem to have a huge ocean input hinting at this 'change' now occurring and heat being kept at the surface and not buried by enhanced winds? This 'change' should it occur, will lead to not only the incoming energy no longer being 'buried' in the oceans but also some bleeding off of the stored heat.

 

This plus a strong Nino would put global temps up into a record of their own and, should we see global oceans switching to augmenting the AGW signal, a period of sustained high temp years well above the dizzy heights that 98' set.

 

When you look at the 98'-2012 wind anom plots for the Pacific they nicely plot out the Nina/DO-ve patterns so have these augmented winds actually augmented those phases? Will any relax back to normal leave us with all positive naturals for a while?

Well - we will wait and see. If nothing else - if we get a strong Nino next year and "positive naturals" for a while adding to whatever the AGW forcing is, then we will certainly see a major return of discussion regarding AGW. It is striking to me how much that debate has fallen off the radar because temps have flat lined.

 

If we see a temperature spike in excess of the 98 spike then all hell will break loose on these kinds of forums.

 

Seems to me you are sticking your neck quite a long way out here? If it doesnt happen then.....?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi C.H. !

 

It just appears ( to me?) that the data has shown a marked departure from 'average' conditions with both the record strengths of the trade winds and the record high sea heights in the West Pacific? Either something has changed to allow such extreme behaviours or that we are seeing one heck of an anomalous period?

 

As I see it once the trade wind forcings subside then the huge bulge of water they have pressed back west is no longer being held back by this force and so it naturally has to relax back East? I tend to accept the idea that strong differential warming of the two basins ( Atlantic/Pacific) has lead us into this situation and I also accept that this difference has recently begun to draw close to reaching parity. Once things are back equal then the Forcing driving the stronger trades vanishes too and the results of that forcing ( heat buried in the oceans/giant warm pool in the west Pacific) also disintegrate?

 

For at least 3 years we have seen an early year Nino signal which has then been crushed by the resurgent Trades later in the year..... nature has shown us that She is close to bringing us the 'balance She so craves..... so this time we go into the period already at Nino threshold, which is new?, meaning that if we see the same again ( a large KW push out in late northern winter) then it will not have much trouble in pushing temps well into Nino territory. Then comes the nub, will the near parity of the basins mean we see atmospheric cooperation develop instead of seeing the northern summer again emphasise temp difference between the basins and stoke up the trades?

 

After watching the impact of ocean warmth on global temps this year I'm thinking that we are already amidst the change and that we will see a big Nino surge early on in the year ( by April) but that the impacts of losing the oceanic burying of incoming solar, in favour of surface warming and re-radiation, will see very large temp hikes across the globe by late Aug/early Sept. this , in its turn, will reinforce the Nino signal into winter 2015/16.

 

I am not liking my thinking as I can see plenty of negative impacts from such a marked warming event. Many systems ( Arctic/Amazon/Permafrost regions) are already acting weird so any push could bring about behaviours we are unfamiliar with and bring us wider issues?

Edited October 28, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[summer blizzard]

Hi C.H. !

 

It just appears ( to me?) that the data has shown a marked departure from 'average' conditions with both the record strengths of the trade winds and the record high sea heights in the West Pacific? Either something has changed to allow such extreme behaviours or that we are seeing one heck of an anomalous period?

 

As I see it once the trade wind forcings subside then the huge bulge of water they have pressed back west is no longer being held back by this force and so it naturally has to relax back East? I tend to accept the idea that strong differential warming of the two basins ( Atlantic/Pacific) has lead us into this situation and I also accept that this difference has recently begun to draw close to reaching parity. Once things are back equal then the Forcing driving the stronger trades vanishes too and the results of that forcing ( heat buried in the oceans/giant warm pool in the west Pacific) also disintegrate?

 

For at least 3 years we have seen an early year Nino signal which has then been crushed by the resurgent Trades later in the year..... nature has shown us that She is close to bringing us the 'balance She so craves..... so this time we go into the period already at Nino threshold, which is new?, meaning that if we see the same again ( a large KW push out in late northern winter) then it will not have much trouble in pushing temps well into Nino territory. Then comes the nub, will the near parity of the basins mean we see atmospheric cooperation develop instead of seeing the northern summer again emphasise temp difference between the basins and stoke up the trades?

 

After watching the impact of ocean warmth on global temps this year I'm thinking that we are already amidst the change and that we will see a big Nino surge early on in the year ( by April) but that the impacts of losing the oceanic burying of incoming solar, in favour of surface warming and re-radiation, will see very large temp hikes across the globe by late Aug/early Sept. this , in its turn, will reinforce the Nino signal into winter 2015/16.

 

I am not liking my thinking as I can see plenty of negative impacts from such a marked warming event. Many systems ( Arctic/Amazon/Permafrost regions) are already acting weird so any push could bring about behaviours we are unfamiliar with and bring us wider issues?

 

Happened in 2012 but i think 2013 had an early year Nina.

 

I would be very surprised if this is a multi-year Nino. 

[The PIT]

Just looking at the leates forecast and a weak El Nino is still predicted and neutral being the more favoured outcome by June July not a huge El Nino.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Nino 3.4 index continues to climb, now up to 0.9 (0.5 being the threshold for El Nino), while the SOI index keeps falling which suggests the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere may be strengthening.

 

Nino 3.4 index

 

 

SOI index

 

[knocker]

Yes Jeff Masters mentions this in his blog.

 

El Niño Temperatures Highest Since 2012, but NOAA Drops El Niño Odds to 58%

 

NOAA dropped their odds of an El Niño event forming this winter from 67% in their October outlook to 58% in their November outlook, but a surge of warm water over the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the past week could signal the onset of El Niño. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average in the equatorial Pacific region 120°W - 170°W, 5°S - 5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region) crossed the +0.5°C from average threshold in mid-October, and as of November 10, these temperatures were +0.8°C from average--the greatest weekly anomaly since late August 2012. By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when SSTs are at least +0.5°C from average in this region for five consecutive months, with each month representing a 3-month average. Furthermore, ocean currents along the Equator flowing from east to west have weakened significantly over the past week, as apparent from plots made using NOAA's Ocean Surface Current Analyses - Real time web site. This sort of weakening typically happens at the onset of an El Niño event.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2857

[sebastiaan1973]

Will it be a central pacific El Nino or East El Nino? Graf en Zanchettin study showed big differences.

www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/documents/pacific/meetings/pp9/talks/ENSO%20Teleconnections-PP.pdf

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016493/pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.anu.edu.au/2014/11/13/ocean-primed-for-more-el-nino/

 

I'm still going for a double dip event with late Jan/early Feb seeing another large KW push out? The question now appears to then be "what now?" 

 

If the anomalous trades are now faltering then both the above research and the 'warm pool' hint at quite a long event ( or a series of Nino/near nino years?)

[johnholmes]

Will it be a central pacific El Nino or East El Nino? Graf en Zanchettin study showed big differences.

www.clivar.org/sites/default/files/documents/pacific/meetings/pp9/talks/ENSO%20Teleconnections-PP.pdf

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016493/pdf

 

that looks it is worth a better read later over a cuppa-thank you

[Nouska]

I'm a great devotee of the excellent tools that JMA provide for creating composites. This one allows you to play around with the different ENSO states and apply different parameters for each month. For example, December 850 temps with a west based Nino.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

[johnholmes]

I'm a great devotee of the excellent tools that JMA provide for creating composites. This one allows you to play around with the different ENSO states and apply different parameters for each month. For example, December 850 temps with a west based Nino.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/newoceanindex/index.html

 

very clever, could become addictive perhaps?

[Cleeve Hill]

There is a guy on Twitter michael ventrice @mjventrice who has just posted stating El nino is about to become moderate in the next 10 - 15 days. He is from the u.s and has some interesting observations.

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice is a very clever guy and always worth reading.

 

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

[Nouska]

Michael Ventrice is a very clever guy and always worth reading.

 

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

 

Yes, indeed - a very clever man whose writings have been a useful tutorial in my baby steps to further my knowledge of tropical meteorology.

 

 

There is a guy on Twitter michael ventrice @mjventrice who has just posted stating El nino is about to become moderate in the next 10 - 15 days. He is from the u.s and has some interesting observations.

 

From reading the tweets, he's not saying moderate Nino in fifteen days - rather, the USA will possibly see a Nino type pattern in the fifteen day timescale (indicative of ocean and atmosphere finally cooperating) and CFS is forecasting moderate/strong Nino to develop as winter progresses.  

[knocker]

Tropical Pacific Ocean moves closer to El Niño

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[knocker]

El Nino Update: It is here now and is impacting circulation… but don’t cancel off Winter just yet!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html

 

 

El Nino projected to be weak at best, and only some atmospheric indicators being present with others muted to neutral........as expected

 

 

BFTP

[knocker]

• El Niño conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific, although the atmospheric conditions does not indicate clear features of El Niño events.
• It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue through winter.
• A weak El Niño event is considered to have persisted since the Northern Hemisphere summer.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html