South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[Sussex Jules]

Note sure I even want that now as it will just melt and add to the problem, we really do need that settled dry period and sooner rather than later now.

I think I agree with you. I used to take a peek at the GFS precipitation charts looking for those white hatches now I just look at them to see how much rain it is predicting

[Nick F]

Latest charts for next week.... Yikes

 

I must admit to having a slightly macabre fascination for how much the weather can throw at us but I think we've got the message in terms of wind and rain. Any chance of some of the white stuff for a bit of variety?

 

GFS has indicated for a number of runs now of bringing a cold front surging east on Tuesday, bringing rain to snow on its back edge, though snow reserved for the north, Wales and The Midlands rather than towards the SE, but this may well change before then.

 

After a lovely afternoon of blue skies, light winds and a little fair weather cloud can see ominous signs of a grey cirrus shield to the west as the sun goes down, heralding the next storm system.

Edited February 7, 2014 by Nick F

[Jax]

I think I agree with you. I used to take a peek at the GFS precipitation charts looking for those white hatches now I just look at them to see how much rain it is predicting

I would normally be found doing the same but now I just want it to show no precip and if possible no strong wind either.

[Tamara]

I am on the other side of Croydon in Shirley and very thankful.

 

The oncoming storm for Saturday/Sunday is going to be very bad. 100 mph gusts around some of the more exposed areas and 50 - 70 mph inland with torrential rain and there's more to come next week

In the nicest way Yamkin could you please stop exaggerating the wind speeds in these severe weather events. There is no doubt that gales are expected with gusts of 50 to 60 mph generally inland and a little higher than that on exposed coasts in this region, but even in the south west and Wales where the strongest winds are expected, the highest gusts are around or perhaps just exceeding 80mph (which is strong and hazardous enough especially considering the dreadful state that region is in) There is however, no suggestion of 100mph gusts.

 

Whilst it is important to be realistic and not underplay events, I also don't see the need to make what is already bad enough weather seem any worse than it is, and cause even greater concern amongst people

 

I drove to the New Forest this morning, returning this afternoon, and was assisted with what has proved to be a pleasant window of weather and the sun shining brightly over the sodden ground...before things rapidly go downhill yet again tonight into what is set to be a very poor weekend.

 

There is even further trouble looming late on Tuesday with the next in the atlantic conveyor which is concerning because it undergoes very rapid cyclogenesis (deepening of pressure in simplest of terms) right on our doorstep. This low pressure systems starts as as an innocuous enough wave feature, but at a stage in the atlantic closer to our shores which means that the system matures right over us rather than already filling as the lows before it have in recent times.

 

Being a small feature exploding as it does, it means track will be important here, not just the UK as a whole, but also for our region depending on its approach path, as winds on the southern flank of the low *could be* a little stronger than this weekend  - and affecting a relatively smaller area of the country than the storm this weekend.

 

That underlines the importance of being realistic with estimates in these circumstances. People have plenty to be worried about with the weekends events without this next hazard soon on its heels. However next week will take care of itself and with the uncertainty attached, there is no need to worry unduly about that yet

Edited February 7, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Jax]

100MPH winds?!

 

 

 

where?

[Bluebreezer54]

^^^ Thank you Tamara for being the voice of reason and common sense with your post above.

[JennyJane1]

Anyone know when the storm is likely to hit EA Ipswich area, please? I have family travelling and I'd like to know if possible. Thanks guys.

 

Anyone know when the storm is likely to hit EA Ipswich area, please? I have family travelling and I'd like to know if possible. Thanks guys.

Hi, I don't know for sure but Peter Gibb on BBC weather just now had it over me at about 3 o'clock tomorrow morning, so maybe an hour earlier for you?

[Atlantis]

Thank you Tamara for your reasoned, informative posts. They are really helpful to all in our region.

It has been quite a nice afternoon here. A mixture of blue skies and white cloud, although as darkness began to fall some dark clouds were appearing on the eastern horizon. It is realativey still as well.

The temperature is 5.8 and did feel a bit chilly when I went out into the mud bath/ garden a few minutes ago!

[Keraunic]

Hi, I don't know for sure but Peter Gibb on BBC weather just now had it over me at about 3 o'clock tomorrow morning, so maybe an hour earlier for you?

Thanks JJ. That's ok then as they won't be out and about then.

[Jax]

Seems I will be seeing family again this evening (I am being visited for a change) so will be back later for the JP updates and all.

[yamkin]

yams what is the croydon council response are they in a state of preparedness for this storm?

 

Hi Jimmyh,

 

Croydon Council have never known to have so many emergency meetings like this. Yes, the council are in emergency preparedness state yet again. Also, council have declared a "major incident" in parts of Kenley, Purley and south Croydon.

 

Saturday into Sunday is going to be very stormy with gusts reaching 100 mph in the most exposed areas and 50 - 70 mph inland. The torrential rain will fall on saturated ground in many parts which will add to the flooding situation.

 

Please take care.

 

Yamkin

[Wet'n'Dry]

 although as darkness began to fall some dark clouds were appearing on the eastern horizon. 

 

Don't you mean the Western Horizon? Any clouds to your East will be receeding!

[Iceni]

I could have got further in the opposite direction but the paths were very waterlogged muddy and slippery - a fall would have either got me wet and muddy (no comments Steve C) or worse still drowned in the very fast flowing water so I thought better of it and came back to watch the winter Olympic opening ceremony and eat cake instead !

image.jpg

Do the Germans think its a fancy dress party - at least they won't get lost in the snow !

 

That little girl sequence was magical. Knocked our NHS bed hopping into a hospital mortuary.

 

The Germans think they're ABBA on steroids... no tank tops for the Russian trip this time though (geddit?)

Edited February 7, 2014 by Iceni

[JennyJane1]

Thanks JJ. That's ok then as they won't be out and about then.

Ah, but I'm not sure how long its meant to last.I think a few hours.

[yamkin]

In the nicest way Yamkin could you please stop exaggerating the wind speeds in these severe weather events. There is no doubt that gales are expected with gusts of 50 to 60 mph generally inland and a little higher than that on exposed coasts in this region, but even in the south west and Wales where the strongest winds are expected, the highest gusts are around or perhaps just exceeding 80mph (which is strong and hazardous enough especially considering the dreadful state that region is in) There is however, no suggestion of 100mph gusts.

 

Whilst it is important to be realistic and not underplay events, I also don't see the need to make what is already bad enough weather seem any worse than it is, and cause even greater concern amongst people

 

I drove to the New Forest this morning, returning this afternoon, and was assisted with what has proved to be a pleasant window of weather and the sun shining brightly over the sodden ground...before things rapidly go downhill yet again tonight into what is set to be a very poor weekend.

 

There is even further trouble looming late on Tuesday with the next in the atlantic conveyor which is concerning because it undergoes very rapid cyclogenesis (deepening of pressure in simplest of terms) right on our doorstep. This low pressure systems starts as as an innocuous enough wave feature, but at a stage in the atlantic closer to our shores which means that the system matures right over us rather than already filling as the lows before it have in recent times.

 

Being a small feature exploding as it does, it means track will be important here, not just the UK as a whole, but also for our region depending on its approach path, as winds on the southern flank of the low *could be* a little stronger than this weekend  - and affecting a relatively smaller area of the country than the storm this weekend.

 

That underlines the importance of being realistic with estimates in these circumstances. People have plenty to be worried about with the weekends events without this next hazard soon on its heels. However next week will take care of itself and with the uncertainty attached, there is no need to worry unduly about that yet

 

Tamara, I am not exaggerating the wind gusts. I am not referring to wind speeds as you have pointed out. There is a difference between the two. The more exposed areas will have 100 mph wind gusts and inland will have between 50 - 70 mph wind gusts. The energy levels which I look into daily are very high and is the main reason for my totals.

[wimblettben]

Tamara, I am not exaggerating the wind gusts. I am not referring to wind speeds as you have pointed out. There is a difference between the two. The more exposed areas will have 100 mph wind gusts and inland will have between 50 - 70 mph wind gusts. The energy levels which I look into daily are very high and is the main reason for my totals.

I am not from this region but I have to say that there are not even gusts of up to 100mph anywhere for the UK on Saturday.

 

Very exposed areas in the Southwest coast possibly reaching 80mph but more generally 60-70mph Coastal, 40-60mph Inland.

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all, fair to say there was chaos on the roads this morning, some of my work colleagues got in over an hour late as many of the roads around this area were closed due to flooding.

The outllook continues to look as bad as even with storms tomorrow and possibly early next week. No end in sight to be honest.

[Tamara]

Tamara, I am not exaggerating the wind gusts. I am not referring to wind speeds as you have pointed out. There is a difference between the two. The more exposed areas will have 100 mph wind gusts and inland will have between 50 - 70 mph wind gusts. The energy levels which I look into daily are very high and is the main reason for my totals.

Yamkin if you read my post carefully you will see clearly I am referring to gusts. There is no official expectation on any reputable meteorological site, including the Met Office, for 100mph gusts. Please by all means have your own expectation if you wish, but perhaps make it clear it is calculated by your own "energy level" method

 

Soon time for dinner - Chinese takeaway maybe? *Tams size* 

[yamkin]

I am not from this region but I have to say that there are not even gusts of up to 100mph anywhere for the UK on Saturday.

 

Very exposed areas in the Southwest coast possibly reaching 80mph but more generally 60-70mph Coastal, 40-60mph Inland.

 

I still stick by my findings due to the very high levels of energy.

[JennyJane1]

Southernman isn't online at the moment but he asked me to say that he has today bought a weather station, usb enabled, for the garden, it was half price at Maplins, for £49, might help someone, no good asking me about as I'm not very technical, but he says he'll come on here later tonight and say about it if anyone is interested.

 

The idea was to have it working in time for these storms but I don't think it will be, still it can check how much rain falls next week instead.

[yamkin]

Yamkin if you read my post carefully you will see clearly I am referring to gusts. There is no official expectation on any reputable meteorological site, including the Met Office, for 100mph gusts. Please by all means have your own expectation if you wish, but perhaps make it clear it is calculated by your own "energy level" method

 

Soon time for dinner - Chinese takeaway maybe? *Tams size* 

 

[Snowangel-MK]

A realistic look at what to expect here ...

[Iceni]

A realistic look at what to expect here ...

image.jpg

 

Even in the 40-50 mph 'quiet zone', it's enough to bring a few trees down - remember the ground is absolutely saturated now. - we're on a hill and it's squelching under my wellies on the lawn.

 

Noticed a massive trunk of a crack willow had come down in the little wood at the bottom of the garden sometime this week and had smashed some of the younger trees. This was upright on Monday and we've had nowhere near 50 mph winds or gusts in that period.

 

I think the best advice is sit tight and don't go out... watch the ski jumpers in Sochi if you're in need of some excitement this w/e.

Edited February 7, 2014 by Iceni

[Wivenswold]

Ah Yamkin's using "Rao's theory of quantum acceleration" which returns a random outcome but one which is in excess of a more scientifically tested method.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

River is getting very high here, may go down to the local meadows (orton mere/ferry meadows) to check out the nene tomorrow if i can. 1998 will be one heck of a challenge to beat though, them floods were something else. 

Some very wild weather to come though folks, so please all stay safe. We all know what can happen when caught out in extreme conditions.