South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[Steve C]

Made me chuckle hearing on the news that some MP said that Mr Pickles would be of more use as sandbag than stand-in Environment Secretary.

Yes I saw that. Made me laugh too! Wish I'd have thought about that last night rather than the Jabba the Hutt description. :lol:

[JennyJane1]

I do not have Sky TV so no, barely get freeview as it is (and that is with the booster) used to but sacked it as it was silly money for sweet FA IMHO and even my parents have reached that conclusion too now.

Sky news is on freeview, number 82, I dont have Sky either, but if your signal isnt good you may not get it.

[Jax]

Sky news is on freeview, number 82, I dont have Sky either, but if your signal isnt good you may not get it.

Ahh right, and yes signal no good and do not get it here.

[Tamara]

London ECM wind strength ensembles are posted below. The hope is that Friday/Saturdays potential storm suggested by the GFS (the blue line) has been overdoing things as the ECM operational is fairly well supported in its ensemble representatives for wind strength. That keeps hopes alive for a shallower feature for that time at least - although we can't be certain of this yet of course. However to underline this suggestion, the latest GFS 06z has fallen much more in line with this mornings ECM for a low that downgrades wind strengths

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-ff-london.gif.

 

Wednesdays low remains very problematic and worrying.  For this region we would actually want the ECM operational to be closer to the mark with taking the low just that bit further NW and reducing wind speeds a fraction in our corner. The reason it takes the low a little further to the north and west is because it actually programmes a slightly deeper low than the GFS, and this has the effect of steering the centre of the depression on a slightly more northward track.

 

If we look here we can see its position as indicated by the ECM with the strongest winds away from our region at evening rush hour on Wednesday

 

 

 

GFS however, sends the strongest wind gusts right towards our area with the centre of the low just that little bit further south than the ECM in the Irish Sea rather than more towards SW Scotland. Not much at all in it obviously, but it makes a crucial difference for a secondary low of this size. Gusts of 120 to 125 km/hr and more are shown on the GFS approaching the south coast (in excess of 70 mph) and this is just one frame as the low tracks further NE through the evening

 

 

Of course we would much rather it didn't occur at all anywhere in the UK, so its not a case of wishing it on any other region either

 

GFS for Wednesdays storm is again in relation to the 51 ECM representatives towards the top end of solutions for wind speeds, albeit certainly not without support  - so the track of this low barely a couple of days out is not fully decided yet.  We should also bear in mind that the ECM operational with its slightly more northward track is a little below the mean of other members

 

So whatever happens we are not going to escape gales on Wednesday - its simply a matter of hoping for some damage limitation. Its unlikely at such short notice to go far enough south to avoid the very strongest winds - but there is something of a possibility it could adjust far enough north to take the worst of the damaging winds away from our region. GFS currently suggests widespread gusts of 60 to 70 mph even inland and gusts approaching 80mph along the south coast. This puts this low at least in the league of the festive season storm, maybe a little worse, and we know how bad that was.

 

Of course wind strength is one thing - there is unlikely to be help at all for the flooding situation - and whatever solution verifies within the feasible parameters suggested, there is a heavy rain risk for virtually the whole week on the basis that even today, rain is also taking longer than anticipated to move away from some places.

 

Taking into account the uncertainties for Friday, if that doesn't materialise then it is possible that Wednesday could be the last of the extreme low pressure systems this winter, even though there is no immediate signal for dry weather for a little longer yet.

 

However, if it is the last one, it seems determined to go out with a loud shout and won't signify the end of the flooding worries.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Jax]

Fantastic post Tamara

 

Anyway I have to be away, much to do but plan to return a bit later.

 

adios amigos.

[Iceni]

It's certainly a tricky one.  Who to believe?  98% of the world's scientific community, or the Daily Telegraph?

 

Anyhow, for a more scientific view on whether this recent record-breaking wet weather I can highly recommend the recent Met Office briefing (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf) which gives a very good overview of the science around this, and where more research is needed.  A rough précis is that we can't definitely attribute these storms to climate change, just that extreme rainfall events are more likely recent changes to the climate.

 

(And as an aside, it is entirely possible that climate change could lead to both more extreme droughts and wet winters, for example by increasing the chance of blocking patterns in the mid-latitudes - this is currently a very active area of research)

 

 

That's another lie too - and it was 97% - so you people can't even get that right 

 

30,000 scientific papers were sampled. Only 79 of that number agreed that man-made carbon emissions were affecting the climate. And many of them weren't even experts in 'climatology' they were activists or specialists in some other science such as anthropologists etc.

 

This Forbes article gives accounts from various scientists (astrophysicists etc.) about how their research was twisted or rejected by Cook et al. who presented this bogus 97% consensus guff.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/30/global-warming-alarmists-caught-doctoring-97-percent-consensus-claims/

 

Dr. Richard Tol (a statistician and economist - CV included in link) de-constructed this 97% consensus rubbish years ago. And another group at Harvard came to the same conclusion.

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/01/tol-statistically-deconstructs-the-97-consensus/

 

The only reason it's an active area of research is because governments are dishing out the research grants to those so-called scientists who buy the lie and governments are doing that to justify extra green taxes... it's a scam.

 

To Dana Nuccitelli (one of the et al. of Cook's paper):

 

"[Dana] I think your sampling strategy is a load of nonsense.†– Richard Tol

 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————

 

My qualifications? I worked for Nature the science journal for 6 years in its Editorial Dept. Five of them under the late and legendary Sir John Maddox its Editor (twice) who as a physicist was deeply sceptical of Sagan and his disciple Hansen right up until his retirement in 1995. So I was actively involved in the publication of over 3,744 scientific papers, letters and articles. "Après moi, le déluge" could be his epitaph.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Iceni

[Keraunic]

London ECM wind strength ensembles are posted below. The hope is that Friday/Saturdays potential storm suggested by the GFS (the blue line) has been overdoing things as the ECM operational is fairly well supported in its ensemble representatives for wind strength. That keeps hopes alive for a shallower feature for that time at least - although we can't be certain of this yet of course. However to underline this suggestion, the latest GFS 06z has fallen much more in line with this mornings ECM for a low that downgrades wind strengths

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-ff-london.gif.

Wednesdays low remains very problematic and worrying. For this region we would actually want the ECM operational to be closer to the mark with taking the low just that bit further NW and reducing wind speeds a fraction in our corner. The reason it takes the low a little further to the north and west is because it actually programmes a slightly deeper low than the GFS, and this has the effect of steering the centre of the depression on a slightly more northward track.

If we look here we can see its position as indicated by the ECM with the strongest winds away from our region at evening rush hour on Wednesday

GFS however, sends the strongest wind gusts right towards our area with the centre of the low just that little bit further south than the ECM in the Irish Sea rather than more towards SW Scotland. Not much at all in it obviously, but it makes a crucial difference for a secondary low of this size. Gusts of 120 to 125 km/hr and more are shown on the GFS approaching the south coast (in excess of 70 mph) and this is just one frame as the low tracks further NE through the evening

Of course we would much rather it didn't occur at all anywhere in the UK, so its not a case of wishing it on any other region either

GFS for Wednesdays storm is again in relation to the 51 ECM representatives towards the top end of solutions for wind speeds, albeit certainly not without support - so the track of this low barely a couple of days out is not fully decided yet. We should also bear in mind that the ECM operational with its slightly more northward track is a little below the mean of other members

So whatever happens we are not going to escape gales on Wednesday - its simply a matter of hoping for some damage limitation. Its unlikely at such short notice to go far enough south to avoid the very strongest winds - but there is something of a possibility it could adjust far enough north to take the worst of the damaging winds away from our region. GFS currently suggests widespread gusts of 60 to 70 mph even inland and gusts approaching 80mph along the south coast. This puts this low at least in the league of the festive season storm, maybe a little worse, and we know how bad that was.

Of course wind strength is one thing - there is unlikely to be help at all for the flooding situation - and whatever solution verifies within the feasible parameters suggested, there is a heavy rain risk for virtually the whole week on the basis that even today, rain is also taking longer than anticipated to move away from some places.

Taking into account the uncertainties for Friday, if that doesn't materialise then it is possible that Wednesday could be the last of the extreme low pressure systems this winter, even though there is no immediate signal for dry weather for a little longer yet.

However, if it is the last one, it seems determined to go out with a loud shout and won't signify the end of the flooding worries.

And this is why I've ordered the Meteorology book. So I can better understand Tamara's and John's posts. It's very frustrating not understanding some of the more technical stuff.

A damn good post non the less, Tamara. I got SOME of it.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Keraunophile

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sighhhh

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1392076800&regionName=se

[Snowangel-MK]

 

I was going through random netweather members' profiles earlier and some of them are really spooky. Some people who always posted on the forums have completely stopped posting or even visiting the site. Some people have over 10,000 posts and they disappear without a trace, for whatever reason, it's quite sad to see. Take Glacier Point as an example, he used to be prolific in this forum, but because of work commitments he hasn't even logged back in for nearly a year.You get used to people posting everyday, and then they suddenly disappear, sometimes you realise and sometimes you don't. I've enjoyed some members' company in here in particular but they vanish and then you ask yourself, what happened? Since I joined in 2011, every year has been completely different in terms of those who interact with this forum, some people decide to stay, others don't. 

 

 

GP did make this post explaining why he wasn't using NW, as you rightly say it was due to work commitments .....

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76241-this-is-the-end/#entry2669590

 

 

 

so another windy Wednesday to come and some Met O warnings sitting in my in box shall we have a nice new thread and I'll post them on there to start us off...link to follow shortly !

[Tom Quintavalle]

An article from the Surrey Mirror, on the developing problems south of Croydon, in the Purley, Kenley and Whyteleafe area.

Underpass to be flooded to save 400 Surrey homes from floods

By Surrey Mirror | Posted: February 09, 2014

By Georgie Keate Croydon Advertiser/Surrey Mirror

PEOPLE in Purley are waking up to discover firefighters are pumping water into the pedestrian underpass of the town's biggest junction to save 400 homes in Kenley and Whyteleafe from being flooded.

Almost all fire stations in the south west of London have been on rotation helping local fire crews pump flood water from the Kenley Water Works, Godstone Road, into the Caterham bourne.

However, Croydon Council announced last night that it had been forced to ask firefighters to pump excess water into the Purley Cross underpass.

“As the situation in the area continues to deteriorate, and with more heavy rain forecast, a decision has been made to pump excess water away from the worst affected areas and into the Purley Cross gyratory pedestrian underpass," a council statement said

Related articles

Floods threat to Surrey homes as River Thames bursts its banks: MONDAY UPDATE

“This action is being taken in a bid to protect around 400 homes and businesses and to keep the Kenley water treatment works from being flooded by surging water.â€

The decision to fill the underpass with up to 600,000 litres of water was made after the area's flood pond at Purley Oaks Depot overflowed yesterday.

The underpass pond will allow firefighters and engineers to pump excess flood water away from 400 at risk homes and businesses in the area.

Since the flooding of the Kenley Water Works on Friday, a 'major incident' has been called, pulling together a "gold command" team, made up of representatives from the council, Environment Agency, emergency services, neighbouring authorities, Thames Water and TfL.

Croydon Council leader Mike Fisher said: “This has not been an easy decision to take but it has become increasingly clear over the past few hours that we have no alternative if we are to protect people’s homes and businesses from being flooded."

Becky Carrier, who lives with her family in a block of flats near the water works, said a number of pipes had burst and water was just inches from flooding the property.

"We woke up this morning to find on of the man holes they have made to put the pipes underground was pouring water into our front gardens," she said.

"Water is coming up from under the ground and getting closer and closer - we are inches rather than metres from being flooded."

Ms Carrier said the flats had asked for extra sandbags last night and have had a delivery of more this morning.

"It's very difficult to know what's going on and if we're going to be ok," she said.

Members of the gold team have been handing out sandbags to affected properties and clearing the river Borne of any rubbish which might cause it to block up and overflow further.

The fight to keep the Sutton and East Surrey water works in Kenley involves preventing it from becoming contaminated.

The facility provides for up to 47,000 homes and 116,000 people who might be cut off if the situation worsens.

However, the company has said if it does have to shut down water treatment it is planning to supply its customers by re-routing additional supplies from other treatment works.

â€We have teams working 24/7 and they will continue to do so until the danger has passed," said operations manager, Richard Rap

"But the situation has and can continue to change dramatically at any moment. While we hope for the best we are prepared for the worst.â€

Managing director, Anthony Ferrar, said: “We would very much regret having to shut down Kenley treatment works and are doing all we can to make sure it does not happen.

"But this is a major incident and if the site is overwhelmed our overriding concern has to be to ensure the integrity and safety of our water supply.â€

Coulsdon weatherman Ian Currie said that 500mm (20 inches) of rain had fallen since December 12. This was an unprecedented amount and that there had been nothing like it since the 18th century. All this water is percolating down into the sub-stratas and emerging in the Caterham bourne, which only appears at times of extreme rainfall.

"The situation will get worse as much of this water has not yet found its way into the water course," he said. "In 2000, when it last flooded, there was less rain than in this winter. I expect the problem to get worse in the days and weeks to come."

Tom.

Edited February 10, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[mulzy]

Back to the here and now.  Lovely day in SW London - Sunny and 10C.

 

Guess, it's all down-hill from here for this week....

[afcone]

 

The only reason it's an active area of research is because governments are dishing out the research grants to those so-called scientists who buy the lie and governments are doing that to justify extra green taxes... it's a scam.

 

 

 

 

I think this is a neat example why debating with the climate change denial industry is about as satisfying as debating with creationists or 9-11 truthers - it's the conspiracy theory element that a bunch of scientists are fixing the argument in order to get rich.  Knowing a few researchers in fluid dynamics (not meteorology/climate science) trust me when I say that scientific research is not a route to untold wealth.  

 

Indeed, the climate change denial movement is happy to throw mud at scientists for being 'in it for the money' but don't look at their own sources.  Take, for instance, the first link you provided.  The author works for the Hearland Institute, a 'think-tank' that describes itself as primarily campaigning against environmental regulations (having moved on from its work in the nineties to try to discredit the link between smoking and cancer - how'd that work out?).  Here you have a guy whose paycheck directly depends on slinging mud at climate scientists - and yet it is the scientists whom you accuse of having a conflict of interests.

 

Anyhow, I don't want to sideline this thread onto climate change, however, my point stands that the increased preponderance of drought and extreme rainfall events are not contrary, do not disprove climate change and have a readily explainable basis, and one that is likely to have a direct impact on our region.

 

(FWIW, I am actually quite critical of our response to climate change, I support some green energy from an energy security basis but believe that we should focus on mitigation - flood defences and the like.  But that is arguing with the political response to a scientific fact, rather than pretending the fact isn't there)

[Snowangel-MK]

A bright and shiny new thread awaits you here...

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79398-south-east-englandeast-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-100214/

 

locking this one now !