South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tbh GFS has been smack on the money this year. We've already seen sub 930mb pressure this winter, I wouldnt be all too surprised to see something similar to what GFS is showing now, knowing this winter, it will happen!

[john pike]

updated fax for 12 tomorrow

 

 

winds still gusty but not as strong as tonight

 

still 40 mph gusts and maybe a shade higher south of the region

 

rain

 

front over the south east will give more showers through the day

 

morning looks like this

 

 

lunchtime on

 

although the showers should not be too heavy there will still be showers about

 

later on

 

slowly easing down now

 

 

ukmo

 

re wind

 

 

still reasonably strong around that time

 

later

 

finally the winds become lighter

 

temps tomorrow

 

around 6-8 degrees

 

getting chilly fairly quick when daylight finishes and if skys clear

 

 

 

not great to be honest

[fluid dynamic]

Very strange winter this one EES. Way back last year in November when it was cold,I even thought we are in for a very long,Cold and snowy winter. How wrong was that thought, This pattern is off the scale, Jet stream is just firing every low possible at us and helps assisting the low's to charge up in velocity. The rain fall for some parts is just crazy amounts. This winter will go down in the record books. The UK now is in a serious dire need of a pattern change and as you said a baking hot Summer, We will need a long one to sort it out. It will cost millions to put some parts of the UK back together. I think there will be further problems down the line once this pattern breaks, Especially with what happens below ground level,IE water table and unstable ground conditions, what finishes flowing on top will still be running below.

I hope we get a long hot summer too(Serious mode on )If you own a building, be well insured against subsidence, however, claims could be record breaking due to shrinkage and heave if you are on any cohesive soil.(Serious mode off) Edited February 8, 2014 by fluid dynamic

[tinybill]

91  

max  gust   my advice for  the

people  on the  south  coast  its  looking  very  nasty

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

[john pike]

heres what gefs ensembles show at 144

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

one of these will likely be right

 

heres the pressure ensembles

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=314&y=152&run=12&runpara=0&col=1&type=1&ext=1

 

ukmo for me anyday

[tinybill]

john its looking  a  bit wild  English channel to-night

[NO LONGER POSTING]

john its looking  a  bit wild  English channel to-night

Looking wild across the whole region! Had easily another 5-10mm more of rain today and more rain to come tonight and tomorrow..

[Charltonkerry]

Well I understand exactly what you mean and if you only want a simple answer then here it is.....cold is produced at the polar regions of the Earth were they get less sun or less direct rays of the sun than the equator; the cooler weather is drawn to latitudes closer to the equator, while warmer weather is pushed toward the poles causing circulating weather patterns in the air and the oceans.

I think if you went in MOD you would just get slaughtered full stop but there is a very good learning section on the forum here....

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/24-learning-about-weather-and-meteorology/

....where you will get better answers to this or any other weather related questions you might have, after all your never to old to learn something new even at your age

Thank you, not quite as I expected, but obvious. My old boss used to drum into my thick head page 1, book 1, which mean the obvious is normally the correct answer, only get technical when the obvious is no longer obvious. Something I now pass onto my young engineers. Cheers MK. Edited February 8, 2014 by Charltonkerry

[john pike]

hi tiny

 

i agree mate

 

we can only watch now to see how tight these isobars get tonight

 

ive gone for 80 gusts

[tinybill]

just look what coming on valentine  day   a  storm !!!

[Eskimo]

I'm sure it's already been posted as it's a shocking chart but WHAT?! :O :O

[Snowangel-MK]

just look what coming on valentine  day   a  storm !!!

 

...........and there was me hoping for flowers and chocolates 

 

wind really picking up here, starting to hear the odd creak and bang too which is never a good thing imo 

[Mesoscale]

Here a few photos around Watford:

Waterlane and around the Bushey Arches:




Bushey Mill lane, North Watford opposite Top Golf:


 

Edited February 8, 2014 by Mesoscale

[Steve C]

heres gfs at 144

 

 

heres ukmo at 144

 

 

i know which one i trust on that

 

Agreed, but it'd be interesting to see what would happen to that low in the SW approaches on UKMO, if the model extended 6 to 12 hours later. 

[Reefseeker]

Yet another flooded Saturday walk along the Thames at Kingston; my son is now laughing every time I tell him to look carefully at everything as this may be a once in a lifetime event... for the fourth time! The river is now much higher than previous weeks, the lower tow path is completely submerged under a few inches of water so much so that to those not in the know, it would be assumed this is just the normal river bank lapping up against the upper tow path. The speed of the water is incredible - the geese were just passengers going in the wrong direction until they flew off - and those with house boats are using ramps and ladders to get into their homes, and the restaurants and bars along the waters edge must now have permanent river water against them. 

 

Some pics. 

 

Edited February 8, 2014 by Reefseeker

[john pike]

hi steve

 

nowhere as deep as gfs showing

 

remember we had a low showing which was shown by gfs and ecm which ukmo went against

 

and was dropped the next day

 

i reckon tthe same situation here

 

gfs ensembles

 

 

such a big spread on the 14th

 

best ignore for now

 

if the fax picks this up tomorrow night#

 

then i will take notice of it

[saint]

Here a few photos around Watford:

Waterlane and around the Bushey Arches:

Bushey Mill lane, North Watford opposite Top Golf:

 

 

 

Watford looks a little bit better when it's slightly under water!  

[lawrenk]

humph....I dont think my bootsale in leigh will be on tomorrow at this rate.....grr

If they're wellies it'll be packed.

[Dipsy]

Nearly 15mm of rain today in Reigate, hail early morning and thunder/lightning late morning. It's unremitting and frankly tedious now, still at least we aren't flooded like some poor souls.

[Mal_UK]

Bit confused now, are we expecting high winds this evening or not?

[scotteboi]

Had to take a detour to work Friday morning, didn't even get as far as Finchingfield (before and after photos attached), I think I may have struggled after the bridge if I had!

[john pike]

ecm 120

 

 

gfs 120

 

 

ukmo at 120

 

anyone want to guess here

 

fax tonight will be interesting later

[Sussex Jules]

Err John have you seen the ECM?! Your fax charts will be watched with anticipation tonight and not for the white stuff.

[john pike]

hi sussex

 

take your pick with the models at present

 

i bet the fax looks different to all of my post above

[Cableguy]

Guildford going underwater again

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19549-guildford1/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19548-guildford2/

Edited February 8, 2014 by Cableguy