South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[Steve C]

Latest GFS update looks dreadful

 

Yes, the Countryfile forecast showed this, albeit it wasn't so deep, but Helen Willets just skipped over it - just mentioning rain.

 

Like I said, rain is almost certainly going to be the biggest concern, but wind would be a big problem if this came about.

 

Getting sick of politicians in all this too. Jabba the Hutt (a.k.a. Eric Pickles) with his snide comments, being the worst. If it (somehow) stopped raining now, he'd take all the credit for clearing up the mess and making all the difference.

[john pike]

wednesday fax

 

for 12

 

 

closest match i have for this is ecm for 06 wednesday

 

so slight timing difference but close enough

 

ecm runs like this

 

 

 

12

 

 

 

18

 

 

 

 

 

00

 

 

 

but

 

i think this low will be shifted around more over the course of tomorrow

 

not good but fast moving which is the only plus for now

 

i have a feeling gfs is overcooking the rain for us in the south east

 

may be wrong but that my feelings at present

 

fax updates soon

[scotteboi]

Yes, the Countryfile forecast showed this, albeit it wasn't so deep, but Helen Willets just skipped over it - just mentioning rain. Like I said, rain is almost certainly going to be the biggest concern, but wind would be a big problem if this came about. Getting sick of politicians in all this too. Jabba the Hutt (a.k.a. Eric Pickles) with his snide comments, being the worst. If it (somehow) stopped raining now, he'd take all the credit for clearing up the mess and making all the difference.

Local look east forecast just has 20mph winds for weds/Thursday? Obviously they are not unduly worried by the winds at this stage?As for Eric Pickles head and knob spring to mind!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Only took me all day 

 

[Snowangel-MK]

A message from Thames Valley Police

 

 

 

Thames Valley Police is again asking road users to observe road closures which have been put in place due to flooding and not to drive through roads that have been closed.
Oxfordshire and West Berkshire are the two districts worst hit by flooding, with a number of road closures currently in place to protect both drivers and buildings. 
Road closures include Abingdon Road, Oxford, and Burghfield Bridge, which links Southcote in Reading to Burghfield in West Berkshire.
Seacourt Park and Ride in Oxford is also currently closed due to flooding. 
Further, contrary to reports on social media, Southern Electric’s Pingewood site is still operational.
Thames Valley Police is working alongside its partner agencies, including local councils, the fire and rescue service, South Central 

Ambulance Service, the Environment Agency and Thames Water, contractors, local flood wardens and parish councils to help those affected. 
Flood warning and alerts on waterways are issued by the Environment Agency. The latest information on those - which can change by the day - is given on their website here:
http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/
To report flooding on the roads contact your local authority. For information on road closures please visit your relevant local council’ website or social media feeds.
Assistant Chief Constable Chris Shead said: “We are working with 

our partner agencies and local communities to minimise the impact of flooding and ensure we are prepared for the challenges that will come later this week. “Across the Thames Valley it has been necessary for a number of roads to be closed. Unfortunately, some people are still ignoring road closures. I would remind motorists that roads are closed as a last resort to protect the local residents and the motorist. Please do not ignore or contravene these signs - it could be potentially life threatening. Motorists should not attempt to drive through flooded roads or fords. The water is often deeper than it looks and may be fast moving. Your vehicle may be swept away or you may become stranded. 
“Many drivers of 4x4 or large vehicles are driving through flood water, but this can also cause huge bow waves that can then cause further flooding to nearby properties. We are appealing for drivers to take a common sense approach and obey the road signs. “Further, please do not remove sandbags which support road closure signs to stay upright. Doing so could result in signs being blown over.â€
Thames Valley Police would also issue the following advice to local residents to protect their safety during the floods:
• Keep an eye on weather reports on local television or radio news channels.
• Do not use towpaths.
• Do not attempt to walk through flooded areas. Even shallow water moving fast can sweep you off your feet. There may be hidden dangers such as open drains, damaged road surfaces, submerged debris or deep channels - these can cause serious injuries or even death.
• Do not travel in heavy rain storms unless absolutely necessary.
• Do not let your children play in flood water, as it can become contaminated with sewage and chemicals.

[steveinsussex]

Changing situation

 

BBC Weather â€@bbcweather 2m

More rain is now expected in southeast England overnight and through the day on Monday. Helen W

[Nick F]

My latest Blog on this coming week's installment of stormy weather to come, based on this evening's model output:

 

http://www.netweathe...ryid=5671;sess=

 

Wednesday's system looks to be the biggest concern for wind atm, could be 60-70mph gusts, even inland for the SE, looking at GFS. Low coming in for late Friday/Sat needs keeping a close eye on too. As for rain, every day this week there's scope for 10-20mm each day from spells of rain or showers, so we could be looking at 50-60mm+ in some parts, not good news for the flooding situation.

Edited February 9, 2014 by Nick F

[alexisj9]

This is a brilliant video shows gusts over the next 48 or so hours.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/videos_wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=3

yuk it shows another big storm.

[alexisj9]

Changing situation

 

BBC Weather â€@bbcweather 2m

More rain is now expected in southeast England overnight and through the day on Monday. Helen W

I've noticed, it's started already.

Edited February 9, 2014 by alexisj9

[Nick F]

2 runs now with low running up the channel Thursday on GFS bringing snow across the SE - surely not?

 

[john pike]

ecm rain ensembles

 

 

ecm about 40mm over 7 days

 

gfs about 45mm

 

so not quite as bad although not good either

[Snowangel-MK]

As for rain, every day this week there's scope for 10-20mm each day from spells of rain or showers, so we could be looking at 50-60mm+ in some parts, not good news for the flooding situation.

 

 

Not good news at all Nick 

[john pike]

hi nick

 

watching that but want the fax charts at 96

 

ukmo looks likely snow possibility

 

although 96 is an eternity at present with these lows

[Katiewombat]

Will try reposting

Katie

Edited February 9, 2014 by Katiewombat

[Summer of 76]

hi nick

 

watching that but want the fax charts at 96

 

ukmo looks likely snow possibility

 

although 96 is an eternity at present with these lows

And I had powered off the snow depth cup computer

[john pike]

96

 

 

typical

 

under 528 dam air

 

but low is shoved further north east

 

however the bit between on wednesday night might see something

 

need tomorrows now to clarify his

 

 

 

so see where we go on monday now

[john pike]

 

on friday

 

nasty

 

but will hold that for now

[Paul Ashford]

 

on friday

 

nasty

 

but will hold that for now

Sat Am is looking 50 knots + :-(

[alexisj9]

96

 

 

typical

 

under 528 dam air

 

but low is shoved further north east

 

however the bit between on wednesday night might see something

 

need tomorrows now to clarify his

 

 

 

so see where we go on monday now

I'm more interested in tonight for now, got rain/showers but the temp is dropping not rising. I guess it'll probably rise when that lot in France gets here though.

[Captain Shortwave]

Sat Am is looking 50 knots + :-(

On the other hand it's means I can sail to work after all the rain that system will bring. 

 

On a serious note that Friday fax is absolutely awful 

[alexisj9]

On the other hand it's means I can sail to work after all the rain that system will bring. 

 

On a serious note that Friday fax is absolutely awful 

yep looks very bad.

[john pike]

hi alexis

 

see my faxs from earlier (on 33)

 

already shows rain monday

 

now rain is a shade earlier

 

comp messin now

[80sWeather]

2 runs now with low running up the channel Thursday on GFS bringing snow across the SE - surely not?

 

96_20.gif

Snow won't settle on water!

Seriously though, be nice if the widespread rain forecast for midweek doesn't materialise.

Cant remember the last time we had a nice high pressure over the UK.

[Katiewombat]

Hello all

 

Terrible events looming along parts of the Thames, just adding to the sense of the country being subject to forces beyond any control.  This photo from the BBC news website, taken along the Thames, really struck me - not even the dead are safe from the waters.

 

_72859816_hcvde50u.jpg

 

Helen Willets on News Channel in an interview this evening said there was just the hint from some of the models that in about 3 weeks time there might just be a different type of weather, less rain, but as she said too early to say anything much about it.

 

AS

That's in Marlow, just heart breaking. too close for comfort note :-(

Katie

[Iceni]

Yes, the Countryfile forecast showed this, albeit it wasn't so deep, but Helen Willets just skipped over it - just mentioning rain.

 

Like I said, rain is almost certainly going to be the biggest concern, but wind would be a big problem if this came about.

 

Getting sick of politicians in all this too. Jabba the Hutt (a.k.a. Eric Pickles) with his snide comments, being the worst. If it (somehow) stopped raining now, he'd take all the credit for clearing up the mess and making all the difference.

 

 

Elections are on 22nd May. Get rid of the lot of them.