South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[Sussex Jules]

Past 10 minutes or so wind really getting up. Some pretty strong gusts in there.

[john pike]

think its about time i had a ramp

 

remember fi is a very short timespan due to all the lows

 

however heres tonights 18z control run

 

228

 

 

252

 

 

leading to this

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

why do i think this might be a cold outlier

 

although with all the short term confusion at present

 

nothing would surprise me at present

[john pike]

oh and it gets better

 

and

 

 

 

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=319&y=152&run=18&runpara=0&col=1&type=0&ext=1

 

blue one is the control run

 

fun to look at though if nothing else

[Captain Shortwave]

If only John, if only 

That's tastier than my pasta carbonara!!!!

[john pike]

haha

 

hi captain

 

nice eye candy

 

just a slight outlier though

[Keraunic]

A bit calmer out there but some fairly strong, intermittent gusts. Not as bad as I thought it would be.

Now, I'm going to watch the end of The X Files then I'm off to me pit.

Night night, each. Sleep tight.

[yamkin]

Winds have really picked up here and next peak points for the SE are 01:00 - 07:00 hrs

[alexisj9]

Wind is picking back up again after a small lull now, may even be a bit stronger then earlier.

[john pike]

 

[Captain Shortwave]

haha

 

hi captain

 

nice eye candy

 

just a slight outlier though

One day the outlier control run will be right.

....probably when it's showing wind and rain 

[alexisj9]

 

Well as I said earlier, the models are having trouble at the min which sometimes means a pattern change is on the cards, I'm just not sure that the control run is on the right track. Guess we will find out soon.

[john pike]

Well as I said earlier, the models are having trouble at the min which sometimes means a pattern change is on the cards, I'm just not sure that the control run is on the right track. Guess we will find out soon.

 

hi alexis

 

i think the control run has given a new meaning to the pub run

 

carlsberg comes to mind

 

fwiw i think the models are struggling with these lows

 

like i am at present as well

 

note the 13th-15th timeframe

 

plenty of scatter there at present

[Rob Deacon]

Just had a very heavy 5 minutes of hail, seen quite a lot of lightning out to sea and inland every time I go out for a smoke, not heard any thunder though.

My brother near Uckfield reported some thunder very close by to him couple of hours ago.

 

The winds here on the coast keep dropping off to under 30mph, then suddenly fire right back up to around 60mph

[Ruthie]

A few stiff gusts just recently!

Just breaking on sky news, pedestrian underpass being used as emergency pond to put flood water into, South London.

[alexisj9]

A few stiff gusts just recently!Just breaking on sky news, pedestrian underpass being used as emergency pond to put flood water into, South London.

Where in south london, is there a link to this?

[Rendaridra]

Very windy, rainy and hailing in Eastbourne, in fact very bad, so much so the town's weather station has now broken.

[<<Ryan>>]

Just been woken by some very heavy hail here. Wind is roaring outside too!

[john pike]

hi all

 

going to have a couple days off doing fax updates

 

need to do a lot of work on something else which will take a lot of my time up

 

heres a challenge for someone

 

have a go at doing the fax updates for a couple of nights

 

warning it takes me roughly 1-2 hours each night to work them out

 

info needed is below

 

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

you need the top 2 to check they match then for uppers and precipitation

 

also checking for troughs on the fax charts

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=lcdc&HH=18&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

 

helps when rechecking precipitation predictions

 

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/

 

the link above has a wealth of info

 

use to check cloudcover and various other things and i mean a lot of various other things

 

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

 

you need this if looking for incoming storms

 

 

anyway good luck if you have a go

 

oh its getting gusty here again now

[yamkin]

Where in south london, is there a link to this?

 

If I may, Purley in Croydon. The Red Cross are making plans to be drafted in to give as much aid & help to residents in the flood hit areas.

[john pike]

hi yamks

 

is that by tescos again

Edited February 9, 2014 by john pike

[alexisj9]

If I may, Purley in Croydon. The Red Cross are making plans to be drafted in to give as much aid & help to residents in the flood hit areas.

Thanks yamkin, had a feeling it may have been there. I take it it's the bourne?

[yamkin]

hi all

 

going to have a couple days off doing fax updates

 

need to do a lot of work on something else which will take a lot of my time up

 

heres a challenge for someone

 

have a go at doing the fax updates for a couple of nights

 

warning it takes me roughly 1-2 hours each night to work them out

 

info needed is below

 

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

you need the top 2 to check they match then for uppers and precipitation

 

also checking for troughs on the fax charts

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=lcdc&HH=18&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

 

helps when rechecking precipitation predictions

 

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/

 

the link above has a wealth of info

 

use to check cloudcover and various other things and i mean a lot of various other things

 

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

 

you need this if looking for incoming storms

 

 

anyway good luck if you have a go

 

oh its getting gusty here again now

 

Hi JP,

 

The slow incoming ppn from the West is packed with high energy and when over us, the gusts will peak about 50 mph and higher along the more exposed areas.

 

Yamkin

hi yamks

 

is that by tescos again

 

Hi JP,

 

Yep and in the surrounding areas.

 

Yamkin

[john pike]

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

 

if you live on the coast bookmark this link

[yamkin]

Thanks yamkin, had a feeling it may have been there. I take it it's the bourne?

 The Bourne is affected greatly by the flooding and the over saturated rain has nowhere to go, so it's extremely bad. Major incident is in place in the area and neighbouring areas too.