South East England/East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 07/02/14

[Alixzandra]

Strange old weather today. A couple of hail events during the afternoon, a couple of heavy downpours, then a little while ago three very vivid lightening strikes and then it was gone.... Been quiet ever since, just looked at my W/S and it registered 6.9 mm of rain so far today and a 6.9 mph wind!

[Isabellesnanny]

All seems fairly quiet here - hope it carries on like that - garden is a total mess from the recent bouts of wind and something any more.

 

Just looked at the Netweather forecast for my postcode which is saying no chance of snow between today and 17th - a big step-down from the risk earlier today and not much like anyone on the forums is suggesting.Is the Netweather forecast something anyone looks at or is it best ignored ?

[TROY]

I remember everyone harping on about how cold this winter was going to be........

Some were dazzled with colour maps and long words.

Woe colder then 47 colder then 63.

Just wondered where the experts are now.......... You have to laugh, everyone wants too be an expert........

Its been a mild wet winter and with only 20 days left of winter. Can we hope for a dry....... Spring.

We had thunderstorms here today........ we dont get the thunderstorms in the summer as often as we used to.

We dont get the harsh frosts with stiff Frozen shirts on the line....... and milk popping out the tops of the bottles whwere it freezes.

You should listen too the likes of Bill Farkin he is very accurate with his predictions and old fashioned ways.

Anyway i raise a glass of cheer Good Health too you all.

Theres bound too be a hosepipe ban...... come June.

Nuff Said................

[JennyJane1]

Referring to the XCWeather site, I'd say the strongest winds are likely to be around 3 in the morning. Near gale to gale force all around the coasts and some way inland, with strong (force 6) winds even further inland.

 

Just read this I was just about to say it was still very calm here, a little wind but not much but I guess it'll be the early hours when it hits us

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi AS,

.

No lawyer baiting from me tonight!  No, Ian is a very interesting guy to talk to, Tamara would agree too. What struck me tonight was how concerned he was about this situation. With all this rainfall still to make it through our river systems and with plenty more yet to fall, he felt that we could well be looking at some major problems to come, if we havnt got enough already.

I suppose living up here, on the Kent/London border, its easy to become complacent about the situation, yes I've seen flooded fields, plenty of surface water on roads and now starting to see damage to road surfaces, through the sheer amount of rain that's fallen on them but it hasnt had that much of an impact on me yet. But of course I've seen the devastating consequences being felt in other parts of the country, especially the SW. I suppose until it affects someone personally, it's easy to become blase about it, that's just human nature.

 

Tom.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Kentish CZ

[Me & angel fiance]

I suffer tinnitus badly since chemo a few years ago and tonight it is really bad! Very high pitch, loud and constant. I am wondering if the pressure outside is having an affect on it :/ 

 

Bit gusty here at times but nothing too bad 

[Summer of 76]

Not very calm here roaring around the house worst for sometime 

[Steve C]

Just read this I was just about to say it was still very calm here, a little wind but not much but I guess it'll be the early hours when it hits us

Yes, especially with you being right on the coast, it'll likely wake you. Hopefully it shouldn't be damaging though to items that are secure and haven't been weakened by the previous bad weather.

[abruzzi spur]

I remember everyone harping on about how cold this winter was going to be........

Some were dazzled with colour maps and long words.

Woe colder then 47 colder then 63.

Just wondered where the experts are now.......... You have to laugh, everyone wants too be an expert........

Its been a mild wet winter and with only 20 days left of winter. Can we hope for a dry....... Spring.

We had thunderstorms here today........ we dont get the thunderstorms in the summer as often as we used to.

We dont get the harsh frosts with stiff Frozen shirts on the line....... and milk popping out the tops of the bottles whwere it freezes.

You should listen too the likes of Bill Farkin he is very accurate with his predictions and old fashioned ways.

Anyway i raise a glass of cheer Good Health too you all.

Theres bound too be a hosepipe ban...... come June.

Nuff Said................

 

Not sure Bill would have made so many grammatical errors in his well-judged wind up posts.  Anyway, keep recording the Grebes (more than e) nuff said

[abruzzi spur]

Hi AS,

.

No lawyer baiting from me tonight!  No, Ian is a very interesting guy to talk to, Tamara would agree too. What struck me tonight was how concerned he was about this situation. With all this rainfall still to make it through our river systems and with plenty more yet to come, he felt that we could well be looking at some major problems to come, if we havnt got enough already.

I suppose living up here, on the Kent/London border, its easy to become complacent about the situation, yes I've seen flooded fields, plenty of surface water on roads and now starting to see damage to road surfaces, through the sheer amount of rain that's fallen on them but it hasnt had that much of an impact on me yet. But of course I've seen the devastating consequences being felt in other parts of the country, especially the SW. I suppose until it affects someone personally, it's easy to become blase about it, that's just human nature.

 

Tom.

hi Tom, I completely agree, it's awful the way things have been and are continuing to be, when you see the emotion, anger and desperation of those poor folk who have borne the brunt it's sobering - people working the land, living their lives and it's all being washed away. We've had a fence trashed, £650, plus a tree in trouble £50 to try to save it, but it's absolutely nothing compared to not just the money but the devastation to a way of life, and these victims a lot of them are small farmers, trying to eke a living from the land and compete against the giant operators that can ride out this sort of stuff.  I feel utterly powerless in the face of this so goodness knows how those on the front line feel.

[Storme]

Really quiet here now odd bluster bit but nothing I would be concerned about.

Have to agree with AS re: Ian Carrie in the Surrey Mirror.

OH has followed him for years.

He's a wise Weather Dog!

[Sweetdream]

Not very calm here roaring around the house worst for sometime

Hi, Chris I'm only about 22 mls away from you and it's been rather windy all day but really picked up a little after 8pm. Some good forecasters on here that help learning the charts easier so a big thumbs up. to Jp and others. I have noticed TEITS has been missing from this forum this winter and must say miss his input for our location. Anyway thanks all for all your knowledgeable post.

[Summer of 76]

Hi SW

 

I bet you have some flooding around the racecourse, wind still blowing well

[john pike]

96 fax chart

 

 

120

 

 

96 looks impressive for cold but looks dry at present

 

120 is not worth any comments

 

i think fi on any chart needs to be capped at 60 max for now

 

back soon with the ensembles

 

although not sure these will help at present

[Sweetdream]

Hi SW I bet you have some flooding around the racecourse, wind still blowing well

Yes it's flooded don't think there will be much horsing around going on unless they wish for a bath. River has flooded. And fields the park is also flooded which runs along the ditch at the edge of town. Drove through the offords today and fields are flooded looked like a big river which of course there is not one. I have found it strange that meto have put out hardly any warnings since this drab weather started.

[MAF]

hi Tom, I completely agree, it's awful the way things have been and are continuing to be, when you see the emotion, anger and desperation of those poor folk who have borne the brunt it's sobering - people working the land, living their lives and it's all being washed away. We've had a fence trashed, £650, plus a tree in trouble £50 to try to save it, but it's absolutely nothing compared to not just the money but the devastation to a way of life, and these victims a lot of them are small farmers, trying to eke a living from the land and compete against the giant operators that can ride out this sort of stuff.  I feel utterly powerless in the face of this so goodness knows how those on the front line feel.

i dont do politics. and try to avoid serious debates; but I cant understand why certain places get our humanitarian help and yet our farmers and communities struggle too eek out a life for the sake of caring better for our environment. it beggars belief that we are watching people suffer in flood affected areas and there seems to be no help for them. was listening to a radio report earlier where the farmer was in tears asking how he could save his livliehood, cattle, land and felt for him so much. ok, i know we cant stop the weather, yes i know we choose to live where we do. but there are things which can be done and they just dont seem to be happening. is it too much to expect that instead of millions of pounds going abroad to hard hit people that a little more could come to our doorstep. have always been, and will always be a believer in charity beginning at home.

please dont think for a minute that the aid we give to others is not necessary, it is. and that people are in far worse situations than us, they are. but it seems very unbalanced to me just lately. the 100K just announced by the goverment seems too little and too late to me  

sorry; rant over.

been dry here since afternoon, but chilly wind. suppose the one blessing is that the wind is drying the saturated ground out a bit... till the next lot of rain

'ning all.

Edited February 8, 2014 by MAF

[Tilly]

Still very quiet here, outside anyway. Inside The Police and Hall & Oats is blaring and Stella flowing nicely..

[Iceni]

I suffer tinnitus badly since chemo a few years ago and tonight it is really bad! Very high pitch, loud and constant. I am wondering if the pressure outside is having an affect on it :/ 

 

Bit gusty here at times but nothing too bad 

 

 

Me too, for different reasons... I notice if pressure drops or rises quickly I get headaches which are worse in a drop of pressure which is down to 965mb now.

 

This afternoon the SW wind was whipping across the field it was pushing me when I returned home to my NE. Lots more big crack willows down or about to come in the wood - feel sorry for the smaller trees they're about to smash.

Edited February 8, 2014 by Iceni

[Sweetdream]

Gust 68km/h temp 6. Dew point 2. Few showers on and off.

[MAF]

Still very quiet here, outside anyway. Inside The Police and Hall & Oats is blaring and Stella flowing nicely..

I like Stella, not too keen on the police, could do with getting a few oats though :o... night all

[Iceni]

hi iceni

 

look at this fax at 60

 

see the low over the west of ireland

 

 

 

 

problem with this low is it may shift south and hit france

 

then head north east

 

or it may hit us overnight tuesday

 

if it does with the cold air in place we could see some strong winds and poss heavy rain or snow in some areas

 

its a call which is tricky to make

 

my thoughts are it looks to cross us overnight tuesday looking at the fax charts but hopefully a better idea will be had tomorrow night

 

Thanks John

 

I'm going to ring them first thing tomorrow and say that having the builders in next week is a definite no no. They'd have to take up the carpet and everything otherwise - unless the builders can nail up some chipboard, but I doubt that would be sensible either. Better to wait for calmer weather.

[Alixzandra]

Still all quiet on the Preston front here weather wise. On an Aunty note, I just witnessed one of my teenage Nephews doing that stupid drinking craze thing on FB and just couldn't stay quiet about it, given him a rollicking telling him to stop being a sheeple. It was a hard call, say nothing and turn a blind eye... Or remind him his Dad (my brother) already had enough on his plate (our Dad had his throat removed and is having radiotherapy right now for stage 4 cancer) Reminded him A & E have better things to be doing than pumping his stomach....he will probably hate me for a while :-(

[Tamara]

Some heavy rain here and a very short blast of hail but saw no lightning or heard any thunder - although obviously places just to my west and south have reported it. Long live the Hastings shield!

 

@ Iceni (...aka Thelma..or do you prefer Louise cos I'm not fussed which one as we will both have a blast anyway ) that secondary wave which was threatening to bomb into a tightly packed closed low yesterday is back tonight amongst the ECM ensembles. The operational makes it a very potent micro feature for my own locale with a short period of highly damaging winds through the eastern channel, perilously close to the south coast of our region

 

.

 

 

Whilst it could still come to much less as suggested by other modelling, this 'micro bomb' is not without support amongst its ensemble members as the maps here show - however, even within this individual scenario, there is a lot of variation over placement which in terms of it being such a small feature creates a lot of hazardous uncertainty just two/three days out.

 

 

With this unpredictable feature so soon after this weekend, the coming week and the possibility of further storms Thurs/Fri simply adds even further gravitas to the unprecedented pattern of this winter and those astonishing stats that Tomasino posted as provided by Ian Currie

 

In graph form, the uncertainty is displayed another way, as the London ECM ensembles show quite a few stronger wind solutions there for Tuesday which illustrate the low tracking further north than the channel or channel coast region

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-ff-london.gif

 

Thursdays storm on the operational is shown as a synoptic outlier for London in terms of wind speed

Edited February 9, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Bluebreezer54]

Some very strong gusts rattling around here for the last hour or so, picked up quite suddenly as well.

[alexisj9]

Wind seems to be a lot calmer since the showers moved away here.