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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->


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Congratulations Karlos to you and your lady and a very warm welcome to Charlie! Bless...

And in regards to the weather, we are hoping desperately for a dry end to next week, especially Valentines's Day, as we're moving south... only by 3 miles into a little village on the out skirts of Henley but again, rather close to the swollen Thames! Eeeek!

Edited by Iggy912
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Tipping it down here at the moment with very much heavier rain coming in if the radar is correct. I am surprised that Meto Severe Weather Alert has not been updated today as this rain appears to be arriving much earlier and with more intensity than it previously appeared.

 

The radar echo reads sustained torrential rain for parts of the South Coast when the forecast mentions heavy rain from Thursday afternoon. The last update i have received was 11.32 Yesterday, has anyone received more recent updates?

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That is one serious amount of rain coming up this morning totally had enough now, im a window cleaner by trade and this has been the hardest winter for many years, I prefer snow and cold, I can still work in that, but this rain sucks.

 

I bet, the windows are getting cleaned without the need for you to clean them Posted Image , a true nightmare but soon there will hopefully be light at the end of the raging zonal tunnel. Posted Image

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Looking at the radar, it's possible that the heaviest rain skirts NE along the channel coast and into SE England.

This would mean lighter rainfall for the West Country etc.

Let's see how it pans out anyway.

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Day three of the five day onslaught has arrived and the unneeded rain has once again invited itself to our region. As fergieweather alluded to last night, whilst the main focus is on the current timeframe with its storm shenanigans, the snow risks are rising next week. For now, that is all they are, RISKS, but suffice to say there is an increasing chance of some wintriness around, more especially around elevated parts from tomorrow night and more particularly into next week. As is the want of this Winter the snowier bursts are only likely to occur within the beefier showery outbreaks and will invariably be washed away by the next rain band. Nonetheless colder weather still is hopefully now showing its hand, the deeper we go into February. The main issue we have is that a dry signal is however, not in evidence either, unless you believe in deepest FI.

 

In summary, not a lot has changed since my post here on the 4th February.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79220-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-26114-12z/?p=2917666

 

Take care all and batten down those hatches for the umpteenth time. Posted Image

 

Jeez, Don`t know what planet you are on but day 3 0f 5 onslaught, try 4th straight month down here in Somerset. Only thing i can think of is hasn`t been so bad up there in Berkshire!

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Looking at the radar, it's possible that the heaviest rain skirts NE along the channel coast and into SE England.This would mean lighter rainfall for the West Country etc.Let's see how it pans out anyway.

 

 

I've just looked at the radar and ran the animation an it certainly seems that the heaviest of the rain is going along the channel and Northern France currently and maybe heading for the SE England as you say. 

Many congratulations to Karlos and his family and to also dancing Daisy on becoming a Gran.  Glad your Grandson is getting better.

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Jeez, Don`t know what planet you are on but day 3 0f 5 onslaught, try 4th straight month down here in Somerset. Only thing i can think of is hasn`t been so bad up there in Berkshire!

 

Couple weeks back flood where i live:

post-13809-0-94271600-1391679928_thumb.p

post-13809-0-59239000-1391679945_thumb.p

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Looking at the radar, it's possible that the heaviest rain skirts NE along the channel coast and into SE England.This would mean lighter rainfall for the West Country etc.Let's see how it pans out anyway.

Yes you are spot on, the heavy area has slowed and held back over the Channel - also now less heavy. Steady rain here now but relatively light.

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You would think it has to! On the bright side, nature usually balances itself out, so hopefully a dry, warm spring, or even better, summer!

The bad thing is, the ground was already pretty badly saturated, but after last night/this morning's relentless heavy rain, it is completely and utterly saturated, with water standing on most grass surfaces, where it's flat. This means that any more rainfall will be straight run off, rather than the surface storage holding some... Which doesn't spell good news for rivers around the county - the river tone is apparently at near record levels (in one place at least), and still rising. There's only going to be 12 hours respite at best for the rivers before they start filling again. I really feel for people who live near rivers/the sea/ the levels at the moment, terrible conditions! But, as someone said on the news: it's nature, you can't battle against it!

Do you still live in Bridgwater daisy? If so, how's the Parrett holding up? I know it's been rather prone to flooding recently!

Finally (I'll finish my essay!) sorry to hear about your grandson, but glad to hear he's getting better - he'll be fine Posted Image

And whilst I'm here, congratulations karlos, best wishes to you and the other half!

The Parrett isn't doing to well at well, loads of flooding going on, even in the town.

 

Congratulations Karlos, I am glad it all went well :D

 

My daughter had a nightmare, pre eclampsia, 25 hours of labour, rushed to theatre and now a baby with meningitis, every day has been a new drama and nanny here has barely slept from Saturday until last night. I have spent so much time on that stretch of motorway in lines of traffic after accidents or barely hitting 40mph due to winds, and rain that I cannot see through to drive in, pointless going the road way as there are too many floods to encounter.  Bad times.

But hopefully things will be calm now.  Neither of them will be home before next Wednesday so we still have a long old road to travel and I still have a lot of motorway driving ahead.

 

Is there any respite coming up for us?

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Blimey DD, hope it all turns out for the best.

 

 

The GFS ensemble suite suggests a trend towards rising pressure from mid-month. Let's hope that comes to fruition; but more wet and windy stuff to come in the meantime unfortunately. Posted Image

 

post-7340-0-85409600-1391682795_thumb.pn

 

 

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6.7C, 3mm of rain and counting here!I checked the manual gauge this morning, for yesterday's rain, it had 7mm more in it than I recorded on the Davis (wind skewing results again) I, like Karlos, was expecting more if I'm honest, it certainly didn't feel like 12mm fell, there wasn't anything particularly heavy about.The heavier PPN is knocking on the door of Dorset now.post-15177-0-01246100-1391684329_thumb.pI best get uploading some photo's!Fergie tweet;@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Anticipate much variance today in rainfall totals across different spots. There's also a threat of heavy thundery showers later.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
removed a certain reference in there, don't want to rock the boat any more
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Jeez, Don`t know what planet you are on but day 3 0f 5 onslaught, try 4th straight month down here in Somerset. Only thing i can think of is hasn`t been so bad up there in Berkshire!

 

The same planet as you hopefully Offerman Posted Image , but what I was offering up was the fact there will NOT be a break in the five consecutive days of frontal rainfall/showers. There will possibly be a break come Sunday however after the five days are up, but meaningless in the overall scheme of things. My posting was a continuance of previous postings I have put up regarding this week's event. Furthermore, I am acutely aware of what has passed as my Davis suggests that, wait for it!, we have received only 5 (five) dry days in the last 56 days. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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That's very true, but looking at the radar, it does seem to be a narrow escape for Somerset.

Trouble is guys even though this rain seems lighter with the already saturated ground everywhere even small amounts of rain still exacerbate the situation.

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That's very true, but looking at the radar, it does seem to be a narrow escape for Somerset.

For now ...but models suggest heavier pulses of rain later today affecting Somerset and much of the rest of sodden southern England ....on and off right through until midnight

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That's very true, but looking at the radar, it does seem to be a narrow escape for Somerset.

Yes. The EURO4 model last night highlighted such an escape.Let's hope it happens. Not ideal by a long way, but the less rain the better.
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Yes. The EURO4 model last night highlighted such an escape.Let's hope it happens. Not ideal by a long way, but the less rain the better.

 

I wouldn't get too excited about missing the heavy rain just yet we have all day and into this evening for the heavy rain to turn up yet I doubt we have an amber warning for nothing.

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I wouldn't get too excited about missing the heavy rain just yet we have all day and into this evening for the heavy rain to turn up yet I doubt we have an amber warning for nothing.

Heavy, possibly thundery showers later rather than prolonged frontal rainfall.Some torrential downpours likely.
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Sometimes, you really have to question the NMM..

post-15177-0-52532600-1391686418_thumb.p post-15177-0-43562400-1391686502_thumb.p

East Dorset, IoW, Hampshire, both Sussex's probably seeing the largest totals?!

Interesting thought about thundery showers, Estofex have a warning out. :)

post-15177-0-66411600-1391686680_thumb.p

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Furthermore, I am acutely aware of what has passed as my Davis suggests that, wait for it!, we have received only 5 (five) dry days in the last 56 days. Posted Image

 

That`s more like it, 56 days :-)

 

Noted.

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Its hard work reading the several layers of warnings we now have I wonder if they could slap another yellow warning over the top for early next week for snow? Posted Image

 

I have informed work that it just isn't safe for me to go in until Monday now and that I shall be resting up at home Posted Image

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Its hard work reading the several layers of warnings we now have I wonder if they could slap another yellow warning over the top for early next week for snow? Posted Image

 

I have informed work that it just isn't safe for me to go in until Monday now and that I shall be resting up at home Posted Image

The system needs updating, it's getting hard to see! Perhaps have check boxes so you can add/remove each layer, one at a time, then you can see exactly what's what. :)
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The system needs updating, it's getting hard to see! Perhaps have check boxes so you can add/remove each layer, one at a time, then you can see exactly what's what. Posted Image

 

Yes I currently have 2 ambers and a yellow warning and it really is getting hard to see the west country under the shades of orange  Posted Image

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