South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->

[Cyclonic 451]

Was awoken to thunder at 04.35 this morning and also a hailstorm, the rumbles where so deep my dog ran for it under the bed

It is eerily quiet here this morning, calm before the storm as my mother would say.

 

Morning stats

 

998.8mb (falling 2.7mb/hr)

Max gust last hour 28.2mph

Rainfall 6.0mm (so far today)

Rainfall monthly 74.6mm

Temp 7.1c

Windchill 4.1c

Dew point 5.8c

Humidity 92%

Leaf wetness 15.0

Soil moisture 255.0cb

[AWD 8,345]

Forecast winds have strengthened a tad overnight though, with inland gusts in excess of 60mph now;

So not as wet as previously thought but the gales and locally severe gales still evident. The will be after the brief rainband passes through though.

[Rapodo 957]

Well the radar doesnt match the forecast for my area typical after ive change all my work about for today! Well annoyed!

[AWD 8,345]

Then we have this for the weekend;

But we'll just leave that for now.

[AWD 8,345]

Latest EURO4 for midday today;

And latest radar now;

Not quite sure the EURO4 is going to be right here.

[Severe Siberian icy blast 4,210]

Latest EURO4 for midday today;

image.jpg

And latest radar now;

image.jpg

Not quite sure the EURO4 is going to be right here.

I think the intense strip to our southwest at the minute will grow in size as over the next few hours. Then as the band now across Ireland pushes north the band to our southwest will be the dominant band covering England

[karlos1983 21,737]

I think the intense strip to our southwest at the minute will grow in size as over the next few hours. Then as the band now across Ireland pushes north the band to our southwest will be the dominant band covering England

Yes I agree with that, it has been growing as it pushes east already. Either way, certainly looks like an intense rain band.Anyone seem the ECM teaser? I say BANK!!Probably be cast as an outlier though, the mean doesn't really back it up......at all Edited February 12, 2014 by karlos1983

[khodds 2,456]

Ian said the rain would only last a couple of hours today. Heavy though.

Seeing charts like that coming through... I would normally be excited, now I really couldn't be bothered. I'm sick to death of this weather. Looking for warmth and sun now.

[AWD 8,345]

Met Office Amber warning now extended across more of the region (South coast area especially) for wind;

Not going to be a pleasent day!

[knocker 57,544]

8/8 Ns with ragged St.

 

Band of rain passing through with SW wind 30mph gusting 50.

[Rapodo 957]

Ah now the forecast makes sence there is more showing on the radar now

[Cyclonic 451]

Pressure dropping fast

 

994.9mb (falling -4.4mb/hr)

Max gust last hour 34.0mph

Temp 8.1c

Certainly much wilder outside now

Stay safe guys, and dont be out in it unless absolutely necessary

As for Friday, batten those hatches down veryyy tight guys, Fridays LP looking scary 

 

Edited February 12, 2014 by Cyclonic

[AWD 8,345]

Interesting from Ian;

"W COUNTRY Heaviest rain, giving ca. 10mm/hour (risk hail/lightning), will cross E around 11am-noon on into early afternoon. V squally winds."

[AWD 8,345]

Winds starting to become noticeable here now.

A couple of very gusty gusts recently.

[Evie 19]

Rain really heavy & a bit sleety and Big gusts of wind, fence panels are swaying quite a bit

[Mapantz 13,431]

The reason for the rain band growing/pepping up is that it's running in to a large area of strong PVA (positive vorticity advection) at VORTMAX.

It shows up here as pinks surrounded by oranges.

Interesting night, had three separate instances of thunder, 4.4mm fell from those showers.

Currently pretty gusty and 8.6C

Edited February 12, 2014 by Mapantz

[Ali1977 9,581]

BBC weather showing some wintery showers tonight for the SW....Not sure if like last night they will amount to much, or if they will be wintery at all!!!

[SNOW CRYSTAL 346]

Very heavy rain and sleet here, lashing against the window. Some pretty strong gusts. Luckily I don't have to go out today but stay safe those who do.

[AWD 8,345]

BBC weather showing some wintery showers tonight for the SW....Not sure if like last night they will amount to much, or if they will be wintery at all!!!

Agree. Highlighted by the EURO4 model too;

[Cyclonic 451]

High tide now, im sure it will be much more choppier later with next high tide

 

http://www.camscape.com/view/33889

 

http://driftwoodbeachbar.com/webcam/

 

The driftwood webcam is at higher part of the beach, further down by Yaverland its crashing over the wall and its not really a high tide

Edited February 12, 2014 by Cyclonic

[jessandjon 229]

so is Friday going to be as bad as this one?

[AWD 8,345]

so is Friday going to be as bad as this one?

Possibly yes, although different areas could be affected worst.Uncertainty for now. Let's just survive today first.

[Cyclonic 451]

It is looking that way, and tracking more south then Storm Tini

Just gotta wait for the models/runs to see really

[Blizzardof82 1,043]

Met office have just issued a RED WARNING for North and West Wales and North West England for wind.

 

Wind really picking up here now with some big gusts!

[gottolovethisweather 7,197]

Met office have just issued a RED WARNING for North and West Wales and North West England for wind.

 

Wind really picking up here now with some big gusts!

 

Indeed they have, its all over the news and its been dubbed WILD WEDNESDAY.

Edited February 12, 2014 by gottolovethisweather