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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->


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Just nipped up to the higher moor (400 m/asl) and a smattering of snow on the ground. Looked beautiful! The north moor (600 m/asl) looks to be uniform white. Back home and its just green. Fun all the same.

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Latest radar showing a nice little "clump" heading for Bristol;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Wonder what this will bring!

 

It must be a good sign we had so many sleet/snow reports from the first line of showers at dusk as temperature have lowered now and are we meant to be pulling in colder air as night draws on hence the midnight snow risk?

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Latest Met Office FAX shows the peak of our winds between roughly 11:00 & 16:00 tomorrow, just after the main band of rain has passed through;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Then at 72hrs we have trouble approaching from Biscay in time to ruin the weekend;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

 

95.7?! Posted Image  The saturday storm was 97.8 and around that the whole day dropping to about 97.3 at the lowest I think for me. We're definitely in for it tomorrow.

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Latest wind projections for tomorrow;post-12721-0-34721400-1392143307_thumb.jpost-12721-0-69013500-1392143347_thumb.jAnd the early potential for the weekend;post-12721-0-88459800-1392143373_thumb.jpost-12721-0-63008700-1392143390_thumb.j

It must be a good sign we had so many sleet/snow reports from the first line of showers at dusk as temperature have lowered now and are we meant to be pulling in colder air as night draws on hence the midnight snow risk?

Indeed. WBFL values are forecast to continue to drop for the next few hours and with other factors such as nocturnal cooling etc, a small window of opportunity has opened up for a brief spot of wintriness almost anywhere. Edited by AWD
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netweather's own high-res 48 hour forecast (based on 12z NMM/GFS et al) has Lyneham down for winds peaking around tomorrow lunchtime at 40mph sustained gusting to 65mph....Oh the joys of living on top of a south west facing escarpment! Posted Image

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12z EURO4 coming into my way of thinking regarding tomorrow's storm;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

If we zoom in on that frame then you can see the darker blues and purples evident along the Bristol Channel coastline, suggestive of high wind gusts here;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Rainfall looks broadly similiar to the 06z, perhaps slightly less with 20mm the typical figure branded around the region;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

The areas exposed to the highest wind gusts therefore, which could peak at 80mph for a short time are the areas within the orange sector below;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Everywhere else more typically 50mph or so inland and 60mph or so around other coasts and on high ground, locally 70mph if your exposed to a SW wind.

Berkshire, Wiltshire & inland Hampshire look the safest places to be tomorrow with the lightest winds (though still very windy).

I've found this below from another respectable weather site, which as a broadbrush guide, shows what damage certain gusts of winds can do if your unlucky;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Like I said, don't take that literally as your local topographic conditions will have a big say in your exact winds you receive, just something to keep as a rough guide.

Yes, not really going to be noteable now for us here unless it changes as we had forecast 60mph gusts last Saturday yet we only had a gust of 43mph.

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Latest radar showing a nice little "clump" heading for Bristol;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Wonder what this will bring!

showers are weakiening a tad, showing a mixture of rain,sleet & snow, but dewpoints & WBFL's are falling quickly so hopefully we may see a dusting Posted Image

 

 

(btw, didn't realise you had a weather twitter page....am following now!)

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A similiar pattern to tonight is again forecast by the 12z EURO4 model for Thursday morning;

post-12721-0-70789100-1392144692_thumb.jpost-12721-0-53890600-1392144703_thumb.j

After tomorrow's notable storm, further cold western air sends showers our way, turning wintry as WBFL values drop again.

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Just had some snow. Started as rain but quickly turned to snow big wet flakes, two minutes and it was all over. Great while it lasted. So conditions are ok for snow just need more showers!

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Alexis on BBC South Today, claims the winds wont be a major feature on Friday/Saturday storm, more so rain......is this correct?! The charts ive been looking at would seem to disagree?

Too early to say with confidence. Some models blow the low up more compared to others. Hopefully he is right and we are spared another round of gales but it's on a knife edge currently.
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Alexis on BBC South Today, claims the winds wont be a major feature on Friday/Saturday storm, more so rain......is this correct?! The charts ive been looking at would seem to disagree?

hmm, looking at the 12z outputs, I'm rather concerned about this system on Friday....it's modelled currently to approach from the south west and will pump up a lot of warm air into its circulation, creating a steep temperature gradient at the T850 level, copious amounts of rain possible with the possibility of it bombing and winding itself into a strong storm........hate to sound like a model thread nerd, but more runs needed

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I can confirm it is raining in Bristol. No wintriness here.

Will be interesting to see if this shower does turn wintry once it hits the Bath/Wiltshire uplands though.

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I can confirm it is raining in Bristol. No wintriness here.Will be interesting to see if this shower does turn wintry once it hits the Bath/Wiltshire uplands though.

Hi mate I haven't watched any weather , and I'm wondering what's the forecast tonight cause I did see points west and although it looks like rain toninght he mentioned snow , but then on the northwest thread they showed a screen shot from bbc national and it showed lots of snow up there , has it moved further north now ? Anyone give us the heads up please ?Thanks
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Hi mate I haven't watched any weather , and I'm wondering what's the forecast tonight cause I did see points west and although it looks like rain toninght he mentioned snow , but then on the northwest thread they showed a screen shot from bbc national and it showed lots of snow up there , has it moved further north now ? Anyone give us the heads up please ?Thanks

If any PPN reaches you, your altitude and location is likely to warrant snowfall quite easily tonight.Early forecasts suggested an area of more organised sleet/snow moving W/E across the region. This has yet to manifest. EURO4 doesn't have anything of note but Met Office do have a yellow warning out for snow/ice for your locale.Case of window watching I think.
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If any PPN reaches you, your altitude and location is likely to warrant snowfall quite easily tonight.Early forecasts suggested an area of more organised sleet/snow moving W/E across the region. This has yet to manifest. EURO4 doesn't have anything of note but Met Office do have a yellow warning out for snow/ice for your locale.Case of window watching I think.

Alright fella thanks for the heads up ;)
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