Jump to content

South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->


Recommended Posts

Thanks Joe, it is somewhat confusing even to my occasional scientific mind. As someone who travelled up the A34 towards Oxford on one day earlier this year, I was stunned to see the flooded land either side of that main road. A few days back it had descended somewhat, however now, it must be in the same state once again I bet.

 

Yes, my colleagues work in a building on Hyde Bridge Road in Oxford, between Abingdon Road and Botley Road, both of which are underwater. They have an underground car park...

 

What with them unable to reach their office and me unable to leave my house it's a good job we have the interwebs!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 772
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Presumably it is utterly impossible for there to be a tidal surge down the North Sea at the same time as up the Severn? Otherwise an independent Scotland might get a bit more than they bargained for! Posted Image

 

I wasn't thinking of at the same time but no matter. I'm off to watch University Challenge for a bit or perhaps the Day After Tomorrow might be less stressful on my noodle.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

With all the bad weather/rain/flooding we have had, if temperatures fall then we could possibly face another problem (many may not of heard of this) so i will explain best i can..

 

Cryoseism  (in English terms Frost Quake)

A cryoseism, also known as an ice quake or a frost quake

 

These occur when temperatures drop quickly, ground water (like accumulated rain or even wetness in the soil) immediately freezes and causes the earth to crack open.

When water freezes, it expands. Sometimes the ground, especially rigid surfaces like the pavement just can't take the pressure. However this is a rare occurrence in the UK but given how super saturated the ground is, and when the temps start falling then it is possible.

 

Though building materials such as concrete and steel become stronger in low temperatures, they also become less likely to take any more displacement.

 

“Even with concrete or steel, when you put a certain load on them they will displace and create a certain strain and then they will fracture… your materials become a lot more rigid....

 

The rigidness doesn’t allow for sudden shifts in temperature, say from -5 C to a drop to -15 C.

 

 

The risk of this happening though like said is very very low, but thought would make a nice read..Posted Image

 

 


 
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, my colleagues work in a building on Hyde Bridge Road in Oxford, between Abingdon Road and Botley Road, both of which are underwater. They have an underground car park... What with them unable to reach their office and me unable to leave my house it's a good job we have the interwebs!

... Yep lots of working from home on the cards I feel.I lived off Abingdon Road for 12 years and was there during the 2007 floods. We used to measure how far the ground water was under the floorboards. 6 ins to spare it got to. That area was historically a flood plain but the Edwardians built on it. Botley n hinksey always got hit hard.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

An honest question though from me, how does it work, yes it's tidal but can it back up as she suggests or am I being a dunce? EDIT: Yep, I spotted it now, the less importance comment is rather absurd.

Interestingly if you look at the EA site you can see how they are trying to manage the flow downstream with the levels. Most of it as well seems to be ground water.. Pluvial I think it is called and surface water run off. Also there were some people interviewed in affected areas and they were like.. Yeah we expected to flood it is meant to and we have done before.. Nothing new as long as we are safe we just get on with it.. Can't remember where I saw that but I thought bless her.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Some cheeky wintry streamers shown on the 12z EURO4 for tomorrow night;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

One for Dartmoor across into Dorset and another more notable one for Gloucestershire/South Gloucestershire into Wiltshire later into the night.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Interestingly if you look at the EA site you can see how they are trying to manage the flow downstream with the levels. Most of it as well seems to be ground water.. Pluvial I think it is called and surface water run off. Also there were some people interviewed in affected areas and they were like.. Yeah we expected to flood it is meant to and we have done before.. Nothing new as long as we are safe we just get on with it.. Can't remember where I saw that but I thought bless her.

 

Yes indeed PB, some folk have become so resilient, they are truly amazing. I have been out and about in some of lower lying areas around the Wessex Downs and I have to say, the water is coming up all over the place which backs up your groundwater theory.

Some cheeky wintry streamers shown on the 12z EURO4 for tomorrow night;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

One for Dartmoor across into Dorset and another more notable one for Gloucestershire/South Gloucestershire into Wiltshire later into the night.

 

I think Mulls will be grinning from ear to ear before long. Hopefully our turn will come too, aye AWD. Posted Image

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope it moves further south than that to be honest. I'm really sick to death of this winter now it's been worst in living memory. Posted Image

 

I hope it doesn't. With the very latest UKMO high-res exhibiting 80kts gusts Bristol Channel by rush-hour Weds evening, we really don't need added complexities earlier that day....!

Warnings being re-visited tomorrow.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope it doesn't. With the very latest UKMO high-res exhibiting 80kts gusts Bristol Channel by rush-hour Weds evening, we really don't need added complexities earlier that day....!

Warnings being re-visited tomorrow.

 

I realise many people have issues with flooding etc and many dislike snow but for me winter is all about the search for something wintry which has just not happened this year even at elevation so I pray for something a bit more seasonal.  I am bored of constant rain.

 

The wind isn't great either as just today we were trying to clear up damage from a huge conifer tree that came down on Saturday night.

 

My met office app is showing light to heavy snow from 6pm Tuesday until Wednesday morning 6am so I know it is based on your raw model but at short range I have more hope it is correct

Edited by mullender83
Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope it doesn't. With the very latest UKMO high-res exhibiting 80kts gusts Bristol Channel by rush-hour Weds evening, we really don't need added complexities earlier that day....!Warnings being re-visited tomorrow.

Thanks Fergieweather.. Although one wonders apart from the change of colour from yellow to orange that there are no more parts of the uk left to warn on Wednesday it is currently covered. Perhaps one large exclamation mark and unhappy face should do it ? :( Either way am already not looking forward to Wednesday and so to countless others. Please let their be an end in sight . Please.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope someone can help. Im suppose to be going up to the Emirates stadium Wednesday afternoon to watch the football. Is my journey back home that evening going to be horrendous?

I wouldn't go by train, put it that way.And make sure you beat those dirty Mancs!! ;) Edited by AWD
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hope someone can help. Im suppose to be going up to the Emirates stadium Wednesday afternoon to watch the football. Is my journey back home that evening going to be horrendous?

yep.. That is if you get there in the first place. Massive problems rail network west to London and roads will be either clogged or vile. Warnings out and best to avoid travelling at all if you can.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't go by train, put it that way.And make sure you beat those dirty Mancs!! ;)

yep.. That is if you get there in the first place. Massive problems rail network west to London and roads will be either clogged or vile. Warnings out and best to avoid travelling at all if you can.

thanks for your replies. I will be driving up as I got a parking spot under the stadium. and we better beat them after our result on Saturday
Link to post
Share on other sites

just looked outside up at the moon there is a massive perfect circle of cloud around the moon, I have never seen anything like it and dont know what causes it can anyone else see it its been there for over an hour now. I would post a pic but cant on here. the center is clear.

 

kaz

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Rings around the Moon are caused when moonlight passes through thin clouds of ice crystals high in Earth's atmosphere. As moonlight passes through the ice crystals, it is bent in a way similar to light passing through a lens. The shape of the ice crystals causes the moonlight to be focused into a ring. This is similar to the way water droplets in the lower atmosphere can bend sunlight to create a rainbow.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Rings around the Moon are caused when moonlight passes through thin clouds of ice crystals high in Earth's atmosphere. As moonlight passes through the ice crystals, it is bent in a way similar to light passing through a lens. The shape of the ice crystals causes the moonlight to be focused into a ring. This is similar to the way water droplets in the lower atmosphere can bend sunlight to create a rainbow.

 

 

No its not rings like you mean, this is totally different I managed to post a pic in the gallery its not very good but you might get the gist.

kaz xx

 
it is completely clear inside that ring, it stayed that way for about 2 hours but now just starting to fill in. 
Edited by kaz
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

No its not rings like you mean, this is totally different I managed to post a pic in the gallery its not very good but you might get the gist.

kaz xx

 
 
it is completely clear inside that ring, it stayed that way for about 2 hours but now just starting to fill in. 

 

 

Google Moon Dog, I think it could be one of those. Cyclonic is as good as right I think.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't seem to be to much on the radar coming in just yet for tomorrow, any thoughts?

 

I think you will find it turns up quite quickly, its a fairly fast moving squally feature so I dare say we wont see on radar until fairly late.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...