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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->


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euro farm subsidies are to blame. Planting acre upon acre of grain after uprooting trees. Thousands of apple trees were uprooted in somerset alone. Tree roots funnel 67 x the amount of water downwards compared to grass and then it is slowly released. Proof is behind me, the orchard does not have any runoff. The grain field nearby on the same slope has masses of runoff and all down to the levels. Local farmer gets lots of £ subsidy plus any more he earns from grain and straw. Rich at the expense of people on the levels

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Ok this is NOT normal, i have washing drying on the line and its hardly moving, the sun is out and only few clouds about.

Looks at the washing.. yup..still on the line and not 5 doors down stuck over their shed all dirty again..

 

Its lovely outside, but a notable chill in the air today.

 

Have looked through the models again and crikey is best word tbh

Im hoping that this will be the last of this terrible onslaught and the dry up process can begin for many of us

 

Temp 8.4c

Windchill 5.8c

Slight breeze

990.0mb (rising 0.8mb/hr)

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Yellow warning of Rain

 

Issued at: 
1235 on Mon 10 Feb 2014
 
Valid from: 
0015 on Tue 11 Feb 2014
 
Valid to: 
1300 on Tue 11 Feb 2014
 
Further spells of rain, heavy at times, and accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales, are expected during Monday night and into Tuesday morning.  The rain should clear eastwards by around the middle of Tuesday. 
 
The public should be aware of the risk of further disruption due to flooding.
 
This is an update to bring forward the end time of the warning.  
 
Another area of low pressure and its associated fronts are likely to affect the UK during Monday night and into Tuesday, bringing a further spell of heavy rain and strong winds, particularly to southern areas from the west.  
 
There remains some uncertainty in timing of the frontal system, but 10 to 20 mm rainfall is likely quite widely, with over 30 mm possible across parts of South Wales and southwest England. With ongoing flooding in some places, any further rain will only add to the problems. Very gusty winds may be an added hazard in places.
 
Amber warning of Wind
 
Issued at: 
1333 on Mon 10 Feb 2014
 
Valid from: 
1200 on Wed 12 Feb 2014
 
Valid to: 
0600 on Thu 13 Feb 2014
 
 A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday, clearing eastwards early on Thursday. This is likely to be accompanied by a swathe of gales across many parts of England and Wales which may be severe in places.  The public should be prepared for the the risk of disruption to transport and possibly also power supplies.
 
This warning should be viewed in the broader context of the Yellow Wind Alert.
 
A vigorous area of low pressure is expected to move quickly northeastwards across the UK later on Wednesday.  At present computer models are suggesting a variety of possible tracks for this system across the UK. Hence there remains uncertainty regarding its exact track and hence the areas more likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, current ideas suggest that southwest Britain could bear the brunt with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, perhaps with gusts over 80 mph in exposed areas. 
 
Please monitor the website as this alert may be adjusted as new information become available.
 
Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels
 
Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth, Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Gloucestershire, Isles of Scilly, North Somerset, Plymouth, Poole, Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Swindon, Torbay, Wiltshire
 
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Very slight downgrade in terms of winds on the current run,(for the South) Still very strong winds though causing minor damage no doubt but the track of the low has it slightly further north than before so strongest winds midlands in to Northern England.

 

However that is just one run and 50-100 miles North or South can make a massive difference hence the awkward situation for the forecasters.

 

This last storm did the same , fierce winds and torrential rain were forecast but the low centre drifted further north to Northern Ireland taking the worst of both Wind and Rain with it to Wales Northward leaving more showery rain and gusty winds over South/Southwest.

 

This latest Storm forecast for Wednesday could do the same or a direct hit which would bring sustained 60MPH winds gusting 80-90MPH in Exposed coastal areas and Hilltops.

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Some beautiful sunshine here today , just a few blustery showers. Made a nice change.

 

The rest of the week is looking a bit scary. There's some talk on the MAD thread about a slight downgrade but looking at the wind speeds, I guess it's not for the far SW !!!!!

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I can't see the Met Warnings going anywhere anytime soon, with their model at just 48hrs/60hrs out signalling this for our area;

post-12721-0-12732500-1392051112_thumb.jpost-12721-0-93442400-1392051122_thumb.j

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AWD, Agree but perhaps not as bad as the last runs suggested.

 

Same as the last weekend storm, not as bad as feared and this storm ONLY at present looks like the worst winds will be Midlands but still very very windy down here.

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I can't see the Met Warnings going anywhere anytime soon, with their model at just 48hrs/60hrs out signalling this for our area;

Posted Imageimage.jpgPosted Imageimage.jpg

Thing is though, is that quite a few other models are showing this moving in a more usual location, i.e centre being over Ireland, giving the worst winds for Scotland and Northern england.

 

So there is a possibility that the south won't be the main place effected by this. Usual 40-60mph gusts for us if it was the case.

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I think it's irrespective whether we get the worst (70/80mph) gusts or we get something more apt (50/60mph) gusts. With the current environmental situation and structural situation for many around our area, the 50/60mph gusts will do the equivalent amount of damage as an 80mph gust in the Midlands may do.

The issue is another stormy spell of weather is now looking likely around midweek time. Whether we get the worse winds or not, for the area as a whole, the windspeeds modelled for us are still more than enough to cause further worry to many residents and properties. Hence the early Met Office amber warning.

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I think it's irrespective whether we get the worst (70/80mph) gusts or we get something more apt (50/60mph) gusts. With the current environmental situation and structural situation for many around our area, the 50/60mph gusts will do the equivalent amount of damage as an 80mph gust in the Midlands may do.The issue is another stormy spell of weather is now looking likely around midweek time. Whether we get the worse winds or not, for the area as a whole, the windspeeds modelled for us are still more than enough to cause further worry to many residents and properties. Hence the early Met Office amber warning.

I don't agree with that.

 

we have had forecast 40-60mph winds for the past god knows amount of storms and none of them have been noteable away from exposed areas.

 

I am refering too for southern areas obviously, not the places which will be effected the worst where the 80mph gusts are expected.

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I think it's irrespective whether we get the worst (70/80mph) gusts or we get something more apt (50/60mph) gusts. With the current environmental situation and structural situation for many around our area, the 50/60mph gusts will do the equivalent amount of damage as an 80mph gust in the Midlands may do.The issue is another stormy spell of weather is now looking likely around midweek time. Whether we get the worse winds or not, for the area as a whole, the windspeeds modelled for us are still more than enough to cause further worry to many residents and properties. Hence the early Met Office amber warning.

Yup - Because of the source of where this storm comes from, and the obvious "winds are strongest on the southern flank" line, the track changing slightly will give stronger winds to a wider area but still putting much of our region right in the firing line. Sainsbo's post http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/page-47#entry2923583 with the MO maps sum this up nicely, great call by them once again!
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I think it's irrespective whether we get the worst (70/80mph) gusts or we get something more apt (50/60mph) gusts. With the current environmental situation and structural situation for many around our area, the 50/60mph gusts will do the equivalent amount of damage as an 80mph gust in the Midlands may do.

The issue is another stormy spell of weather is now looking likely around midweek time. Whether we get the worse winds or not, for the area as a whole, the windspeeds modelled for us are still more than enough to cause further worry to many residents and properties. Hence the early Met Office amber warning.

 

wimblettben :Agreeing with my earlier post.

 

AWD, Hence my earlier post which said exactly that, even less winds could still cause minor damage to our area.I only stated about different wind speeds affecting different areas as per last storm and as Wim was backing.

Just in from the Met Office;

Posted Imageimage.jpg

Thanks for this update AWD.

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I don't agree with that. we have had forecast 40-60mph winds for the past god knows amount of storms and none of them have been noteable away from exposed areas. I am refering too for southern areas obviously, not the places which will be effected the worst where the 80mph gusts are expected.

I've seen it first hand mate. Where I work we've had trees uprooted by simply "knocks" from small machinery vehicles. The ground is so weak on some of our depots that even today, with little wind at all, we've had branches bend over railway tracks etc.The windspeeds currently favoured for our area would highly likely cause some sort of disruption and damage to many. Off course it could change, but I highly doubt the Met Office have us in an amber warning for no reason.
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Worrying ! I'm right next to Chesil beach and it's taken a serious battering last week the beach is virtually flat one side if never seen it so low .

The defences are mangled by the cove I dread to think what could happen with this coming storm as it coincides with a very high tide I think ?

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Worrying ! I'm right next to Chesil beach and it's taken a serious battering last week the beach is virtually flat one side if never seen it so low .The defences are mangled by the cove I dread to think what could happen with this coming storm as it coincides with a very high tide I think ?

We're heading out of neaps at the moment, full moon on Friday. The tides at Poole quay at the weekend were 1.5m to 1.6m, Wednesday/Thursday will be around 1.8m to 1.9m - so a little higher.I see Mr Cameron was down your way today?!
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Latest Met Office FAX charts for 48hrs;

post-12721-0-49555800-1392055496_thumb.j

And 60hrs;

post-12721-0-27520500-1392055514_thumb.j

Shame there isn't a 54hrs version. Although not infallible, the best tool we have at our disposal IMO. Anyway, stormy for our region. Heavy rain followed by squally showers. Gales widely throughout with severe gales likely around coastal areas and high ground.

Expect further flooding issues if this verifies along with further coastline damage and various issues with uprooted trees, damaged fences/weak structures etc.

Looking at that, it's possible that the amber warning may get extended up into the Midlands and Wales too.

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euro farm subsidies are to blame. Planting acre upon acre of grain after uprooting trees. Thousands of apple trees were uprooted in somerset alone. Tree roots funnel 67 x the amount of water downwards compared to grass and then it is slowly released. Proof is behind me, the orchard does not have any runoff. The grain field nearby on the same slope has masses of runoff and all down to the levels. Local farmer gets lots of £ subsidy plus any more he earns from grain and straw. Rich at the expense of people on the levels

 

Hi snip.

 

Thanks for your input whilst the current extreme weather is very raw, we do need to try to stick broadly to the topic of current and forecast weather in here. As a fairly new member, would you be so kind as to update your profile with your location details.

 

Many Thanks

 

gottolovethisweather

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Am hoping this wont come off to bad, awaiting the next runs  Posted Image

 

 

At present talking to my sister in the states  (Sturtevant, west of Wisconsin USA), the windchill there is -24 and they wont close the schools till its -34  Posted ImagePosted Image

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Am hoping this wont come off to bad, awaiting the next runs  Posted Image

In some ways me too. I like severe weather (hence my name) but there comes a time when enough is enough. It's starting to affect my way of life now so a break and a quieter spell of weather, from a personal point of view, would be most welcome now.

Not looking likely this week though. Stormy again midweek for a lot of us with further disruption and travel chaos likely.

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