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South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->


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Reading, watching all the reports of the unprecedented flooding across the Uk, there is I now believe only one culprit to blame. The sodding relentless unforgiving weather we are being battered with. I honestly don't think now any government, or one measure could protect or foresee those that have been hardest hit. And ultimately as sea levels rise as they will do by 1 metre it is all of us humans individually who have contributed through our nimby ism of not doing more. Of continuing to drive and use the cars, of reaping and exhausting the land etc etc. I never really quite took on the climate change story but am starting to believe it. Above all I am so very cross with myself. We all need to learn from this surely and think more sustainably collaboratively. There will be no one panacea solution for the future and we need to be more inventive and inclusive. ..... And as I type my feelings get stronger on this... Just like the flipping wind outside which I now am fed up of and makes me feel I wish I could do more to help those who are suffering..

I really don't believe in climate change/global warming. To me, it's a cycle that happens naturally.. Don't get me wrong, humans are damaging our planet, but the climate is such a huge thing controlled by the sun, I can't see it happening.The main problem with the flooding as I see it is the lack of dredging on the levels. Amongst other things. I'm a farmers daughter and my family know that there were two brothers who's job it was to dredge the rivers tone and parrot continuously... No one does that now. Someone else I know has friends who live on the levels who live near a river, which once was 8 foot deep. Now (prior to the flooding) they can get across it in wellies. Makes me so angry that a lot of this could be prevented. There is also the fact that Somerset is named due to the fact that centuries ago it could only be farmed in the summer... And the fact that the name Mulcheney means Island. Still no help to all those affected. I'm off my pedestal now! Not ranting at you... Just getting it off my chest :)
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dewpoint at 0.2 temp about 3c bit of ppn about. Up the road a mile there is a bit of wintery stuff going on wonder if we could squeeze a couple of wet flakes here?

 

EDIT: moment has passed temps up to 4.5 suddenly and dew point up to 0.8 Posted Image

Edited by festivalking
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I really don't believe in climate change/global warming. To me, it's a cycle that happens naturally.. Don't get me wrong, humans are damaging our planet, but the climate is such a huge thing controlled by the sun, I can't see it happening.

All I can say is, and this is just my own opinion of course, but future generations are in big trouble if most people in the world think the same way, global warming is clearly something to worry about, there's been enough scientific studies done over the decades to show that.
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Reading, watching all the reports of the unprecedented flooding across the Uk, there is I now believe only one culprit to blame. The sodding relentless unforgiving weather we are being battered with. I honestly don't think now any government, or one measure could protect or foresee those that have been hardest hit. And ultimately as sea levels rise as they will do by 1 metre it is all of us humans individually who have contributed through our nimby ism of not doing more. Of continuing to drive and use the cars, of reaping and exhausting the land etc etc. I never really quite took on the climate change story but am starting to believe it. Above all I am so very cross with myself. We all need to learn from this surely and think more sustainably collaboratively. There will be no one panacea solution for the future and we need to be more inventive and inclusive. ..... And as I type my feelings get stronger on this... Just like the flipping wind outside which I now am fed up of and makes me feel I wish I could do more to help those who are suffering..

 

Indeed PB, I have been a believer since I've started collating data with reference to changes in the timing of events in the Natural World, i.e. by watching the wildlife and observing them very closely and looking for trends in the data. Ultimately, this does in fact show how it (climate change) will in the end, eventually also affect us humans. A lot of my evidence is viewable via the link attached to my profile and there is an undeniable trend. One thing we must take on board is the fact that this events are very raw right now and once the deluges relent, our feelings of anger towards the UK climate will also ease. I don't want this thread descending into to a debate about Climate Change as there are appropriate threads elsewhere but hell yes, now more than ever, the weather proves that we all should be doing our bit as far as is ultimately possible. one thing to do is to vent your frustrations towards those in power, the same folk that ultimately can make a difference for us and the wider environment. As for the immediate weather forecast, more of the same can be expected but with some variation to the general theme. Wintry showers could be increasingly likely in the short-term, come midweek there is potential for another deep depression passing right over this region, thereafter I think a pattern change may start to reveal itself.

 

Take Care all.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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I really don't believe in climate change/global warming. To me, it's a cycle that happens naturally.. Don't get me wrong, humans are damaging our planet, but the climate is such a huge thing controlled by the sun, I can't see it happening.

The main problem with the flooding as I see it is the lack of dredging on the levels. Amongst other things. I'm a farmers daughter and my family know that there were two brothers who's job it was to dredge the rivers tone and parrot continuously... No one does that now. Someone else I know has friends who live on the levels who live near a river, which once was 8 foot deep. Now (prior to the flooding) they can get across it in wellies.

Makes me so angry that a lot of this could be prevented.

There is also the fact that Somerset is named due to the fact that centuries ago it could only be farmed in the summer... And the fact that the name Mulcheney means Island. Still no help to all those affected.

I'm off my pedestal now! Not ranting at you... Just getting it off my chest Posted Image

 

I agree with a lot of you have stated as well K and you quite rightly should know about these things better than anyone else. I do also believe, as Richard Benyon said during his TV interview, no matter what had been done regarding the dredging (having not be done as largely based around not fit for purpose and out of date environment regulations) truly biblical amounts of rainfall has fallen over a short space of time. Its like the Indian Monsoon has arrived in our part of the globe and I'd hate to think how those folk survive their own annual onslaught. Whatever, all being said and done, Mother Nature rules and we need to adjust to her agenda from here on in, I feel. As I said a while back in the Somerset Levels thread, those effected which is developing into a far greater area than we could have perhaps imagined, we now need time, money and effort as this will be a long haul to recovery. Roll on Spring, eh!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Could this be our last stand ?Then what looks to be some sort of change in our type of weather.One to watch.

If by 'last stand' you mean the storm that completely inundates the entire country and forces us to live in a Kevin Costner style Waterworld, then yes :D

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I agree with a lot of you have stated as well K and you quite rightly should know about these things better than anyone else. I do also believe, as Richard Benyon said during his TV interview, no matter what had been done regarding the dredging (having not be done as largely based around not fit for purpose and out of date environment regulations) truly biblical amounts of rainfall has fallen over a short space of time. Its like the Indian Monsoon has arrived in our part of the globe and I'd hate to think how those folk survive their own annual onslaught. Whatever, all being said and done, Mother Nature rules and we need to adjust to her agenda from here on in, I feel. As I said a while back in the Somerset Levels thread, those effected which is developing into a far greater area than we could have perhaps imagined, we now need time, money and effort as this will be a long haul to recovery. Roll on Spring, eh!

Definitely. I just hope the government gets it's act together now. They seem to forget there is life outside London! But that's a whole other rant! Haha! Can't wait until spring - tho someone was hinting on twitter earlier that it may be another cold one. Time will tell.
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If by 'last stand' you mean the storm that completely inundates the entire country and forces us to live in a Kevin Costner style Waterworld, then yes Posted Image

 

Disaster movies aside and let's please be careful on that note, but yes I see some hope as well as my last post alluded to. I hope you're onto something there Argyle, what do you think Joe? I like your input, have you checked the ensembles of late, the problem I see is that the UKMO further outlook doesn't buy our ideas just yet, but at the end of the day these will also change.

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Gfs will, well has to downgrade over the next three days and hope we see some agreement across ECM and UKMO for some kind of pressure rise from the south west.

Gfs has been picking up on this after this low on the 14/15th passes.

Take care .

Anyways still learning here and night all.

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Definitely. I just hope the government gets it's act together now. They seem to forget there is life outside London! But that's a whole other rant! Haha!.

You raise a good point here Khodds because on the bright side (if there even is any) to this flooding, is it will give the Government a kick up the backside and make them realise something has to be done! So maybe it best be called a small consolation to the flood victims rather than the bright side to it!
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There are so many rumours flying about at the moment in my part of the world.  What I don't understand is how they are going to redirect all of this water without flooding other areas?

 

The biggest rumour is that someone has messed with the sluice gates at one of the stations and has lost the handle so the gate cannot be opened, hence a lot of the flooding.  If this is true then it beggars belief.

 

People have lost their homes, farmers their livelihoods, farm animals are being rescued, there are food banks set up.  It's surreal.

 

EA, the army, police, fire... are all working around the clock trying to rescue people and sandbag/protect property, what is especially heartening is the way that the communities are clubbing together and helping each other, volunteers are spending hours digging trenches and filling sandbags, local businesses are sending in vehicles, tea, coffee, food.  I had to laugh when I read that the rescue teams had run out of water to make tea with. I've always had a black sense of humour. ;)

 

What I have personally found upsetting is that the graveyard my step-dad is buried in has flooded. I don't know why this has upset me, it's not like he'll care is it.

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Disaster movies aside and let's please be careful on that note, but yes I see some hope as well as my last post alluded to. I hope you're onto something there Argyle, what do you think Joe? I like your input, have you checked the ensembles of late, the problem I see is that the UKMO further outlook doesn't buy our ideas just yet, but at the end of the day these will also change.

Sorry for the late reply. My honest answer is that I have absolutely no clue! Logic would suggest that this has to end at some point, but then 2012 is an example of a year where that logic did not apply! In any case, the explosive development of lows that we have seen is not necessary to cause further disruption, as any rain we get is unwelcome now. There are certainly indications that drier weather might prevail in the medium term, from a few ensemble members and the odd op run, however this is merely an option that is being repeated as a minority solution, rather than the most likely outcome. I suspect the stormy weather may occupy almost the entire month, but who can say for certain! That is a very fence-sitting answer there I have just given you, but that's the best I can come up with!

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I really don't believe in climate change/global warming. To me, it's a cycle that happens naturally.. Don't get me wrong, humans are damaging our planet, but the climate is such a huge thing controlled by the sun, I can't see it happening.

The main problem with the flooding as I see it is the lack of dredging on the levels. Amongst other things. I'm a farmers daughter and my family know that there were two brothers who's job it was to dredge the rivers tone and parrot continuously... No one does that now. Someone else I know has friends who live on the levels who live near a river, which once was 8 foot deep. Now (prior to the flooding) they can get across it in wellies.

Makes me so angry that a lot of this could be prevented.

There is also the fact that Somerset is named due to the fact that centuries ago it could only be farmed in the summer... And the fact that the name Mulcheney means Island. Still no help to all those affected.

I'm off my pedestal now! Not ranting at you... Just getting it off my chest Posted Image

 

 

You ought to get into Prof. Henrik Svensmark whose theory on cosmic rays and cloud formation combined with the effects of the Sun's magnetic field creates and controls our climate. Eventually after much opposition from the scientific 'concensus' he was allowed to do the experiment at the CERN laboratories which partially proved his theory was correct — cosmic rays DO ionize clouds. More research to be done.

 

This set of 6 videos tells the story.... and anyone interested in weather or climate should watch them.

 

Edited by Iceni
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I think those are called mammatus clouds, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

EDIT stupid internet didn't show me other replies which had already answered the question! DOH!

Definitely mammatus clouds, they always follow on behind a storm. 

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wind gusts got me out of bed, very loud and also hard rain

 

sluice gates not in action

lets  hope  sky news get sent this they love this if its right

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Sorry for the late reply. My honest answer is that I have absolutely no clue! Logic would suggest that this has to end at some point, but then 2012 is an example of a year where that logic did not apply! In any case, the explosive development of lows that we have seen is not necessary to cause further disruption, as any rain we get is unwelcome now. There are certainly indications that drier weather might prevail in the medium term, from a few ensemble members and the odd op run, however this is merely an option that is being repeated as a minority solution, rather than the most likely outcome. I suspect the stormy weather may occupy almost the entire month, but who can say for certain! That is a very fence-sitting answer there I have just given you, but that's the best I can come up with!

 

Oh dear, for once I hope you are wrong. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Morning all.

GTLTW so a hint maybe just maybe things may change soon ish? That glimmer is enough for me. Flipping fence almost had it now and it isn't being repaired until week after next. Was out there at silly o'clock last night and this morning trying to stabilise it and so it doesn't damage further! I have a limited fix find! :(

I am meant to be off to larkhill today to stand in the huge great MOD land field while my friend has an Xc lesson on her horse. I don't mind as it is good fresh air and ill be wrapped up but I actually wonder really is it a good idea to go there today and isn't it going to get more windy? .....

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