South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->

[chubbyfan]

just looked outside up at the moon there is a massive perfect circle of cloud around the moon, I have never seen anything like it and dont know what causes it can anyone else see it its been there for over an hour now. I would post a pic but cant on here. the center is clear.

 

kaz

the moon will crash into planet earth..we are doomed.

[knocker]

Moderate rain.

 

Temp 8C

 

Wind south west 30mph gusting 53.

 

Pressure 990mb falling.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Heavy rain and strong gusts here. This is just disastrous for many people, however on the plus side my daughters Cross Country at Princetown just might get cancelled but I guess that's only a plus for me!!! Stay in bed folks, it's safer.

[Cyclonic]

Well its yuk here, raining, windy and im cold, complete opposite to yesterday spring like day, i can't keep up with this crazy weather lol

 

992.8 (falling 4.1mb/hr)

Rainfall 1.4mm (so far today)

Max gust last hour 21.8mph

Temp 7.3c

Windchill 4.7c

Dew point 5.4c

Humidity 88%

Leaf wetness 15.0

[festivalking]

Looking good for snow on the moors tonight. Looks like sleet and rain on the lower slopes but after last week's surprise snowfall nothing can be ruled out!

[AWD]

Morning all.

Firstly the here and now. Heavy rain with strong squally gusts of winds. I've left for work now and forgot to check my weather station, but looking at a nearby station the max gust of wind so far as only been 27mph yet my drive to work consisted of dodging numerous recycling boxes in the road as well as one large tree branch and various floods. Not good. It does show how even rather modest windspeeds and rather modest rainfall amounts on a normal day are causing extra disruption within our volatile environment though.

Onto the storm on Weds/Thurs. It's very possible that the very worst of the winds will miss our area and hit further N/NW. However, that doesn't mean we have avoided the storm because that's still looking rather unlikely this morning.

Firstly a look at the latest UKMO FAX chart for Weds afternoon shows widespread gales with severe gales in places. Certainly enough to cause further issues and disruption.

And now a look at the latest EURO4 output for the same period;

You can see there that the main area of threat is up the Bristol Channel coastline. I noticed a post from Ian last night mentioning some high res UKMO indictive of 80knt gusts up there. Well, that may not be far off, with 60/70knt gusts funneling up the channel very possible. I haven't looked at tide times, but let's hope when the winds peak, it's low tide otherwise high swells could well cause coastal flooding.

My opinion of how things look today wind wise is below;

I thing the Met Office will take the amber warning further N/NW and/or possibly enlargen it. English Channel coasts and eastern counties of our region may well escape the worse winds but not the rainfall which I'll touch upon in a minute.

Bristol Channel coasts could be the worst affected areas, which of course is the last thing parts of Somerset need. I think we are currently looking at 70/80mph gusts along the coastline here with 60/70mph gusts inland. Similiar values for Devon & Cornwall too. Dorset, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire probably around 50mph. Expect uprooted trees for some, along with further travel disruption.

Off course too, rainfall is also in the mix. It's not just the winds we have to contend with, but our region, along with South Wales, could see some of the highest rainfall totals from this storm. The 48hr accumulative rainfall map from the EURO4;

Dorset and the English Channel coastline in the firing line there, with a much unwanted 50mm or so. Somerset seeing around another 30mm or so. None of this needed of course, so further flooding very likely.

Time to play trains again on what ever railway tracks are still open. Let's hope the 12z downgrades somewhat as even myself, a severe weather enthusiast, am getting a little tired of this now.

Edited February 11, 2014 by AWD

[legritter]

the moon will crash into planet earth..we are doomed.

Halo ,ring around the moon ,high level thin cloud ,ice particles ,back too now ,squall front coming through ,torrential rain strong gustd just gone black ,cheers .

[somersetsnow]

Well, I'm staying Side ways until Winters over………..Thought I would stay in keeping with the Weather

[Mapantz]

The rain didn't start long ago and it has nearly passed through. LOL

Currently 7.9C

Edit: Rain stopped. 3mm

Edited February 11, 2014 by Mapantz

[gottolovethisweather]

The rain didn't start long ago and it has nearly passed through. LOLCurrently 7.9C

 

All I can say to that is good. How much have received now during February, Mapantz. I'm sitting at 65mm as I type.

Edited February 11, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[jessandjon]

Is there chance of it tracking further south again or is it set now?

[gottolovethisweather]

Incidentally a brief period of snow was mentioned on TV forecast, even to some parts lower down was shown to progress West to East overnight and there was a suggestion of a slight covering before the main rain and wind event on Wednesday.

[Bumpkin]

I'm going to be incredibly controversial and declare that I don't care if we don't get any snow this winter/spring.  I'm fed up with wet and just want a lovely dry spell.  I didn't see lying snow between 1997 and 2008 so this wouldn't bother me.

 

 

  ::runs away and puts on tinfoil hat::

[offerman]

Morning all.

Firstly the here and now. Heavy rain with strong squally gusts of winds. I've left for work now and forgot to check my weather station, but looking at a nearby station the max gust of wind so far as only been 27mph yet my drive to work consisted of dodging numerous recycling boxes in the road as well as one large tree branch and various floods. Not good. It does show how even rather modest windspeeds and rather modest rainfall amounts on a normal day are causing extra disruption within our volatile environment though.

Onto the storm on Weds/Thurs. It's very possible that the very worst of the winds will miss our area and hit further N/NW. However, that doesn't mean we have avoided the storm because that's still looking rather unlikely this morning.

Firstly a look at the latest UKMO FAX chart for Weds afternoon shows widespread gales with severe gales in places. Certainly enough to cause further issues and disruption.

image.jpg

And now a look at the latest EURO4 output for the same period;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

You can see there that the main area of threat is up the Bristol Channel coastline. I noticed a post from Ian last night mentioning some high res UKMO indictive of 80knt gusts up there. Well, that may not be far off, with 60/70knt gusts funneling up the channel very possible. I haven't looked at tide times, but let's hope when the winds peak, it's low tide otherwise high swells could well cause coastal flooding.

My opinion of how things look today wind wise is below;

image.jpg

I thing the Met Office will take the amber warning further N/NW and/or possibly enlargen it. English Channel coasts and eastern counties of our region may well escape the worse winds but not the rainfall which I'll touch upon in a minute.

Bristol Channel coasts could be the worst affected areas, which of course is the last thing parts of Somerset need. I think we are currently looking at 70/80mph gusts along the coastline here with 60/70mph gusts inland. Similiar values for Devon & Cornwall too. Dorset, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire probably around 50mph. Expect uprooted trees for some, along with further travel disruption.

Off course too, rainfall is also in the mix. It's not just the winds we have to contend with, but our region, along with South Wales, could see some of the highest rainfall totals from this storm. The 48hr accumulative rainfall map from the EURO4;

image.jpg

Dorset and the English Channel coastline in the firing line there, with a much unwanted 50mm or so. Somerset seeing around another 30mm or so. None of this needed of course, so further flooding very likely.

Time to play trains again on what ever railway tracks are still open. Let's hope the 12z downgrades somewhat as even myself, a severe weather enthusiast, am getting a little tired of this now.

 

Well your post reflects exactly what i first brought up yesterday!! Say no more..

[AWD]

Latest EURO4 gives a wintry flavour to the showers over the Mendips and Moors later today and tonight;

Not as bullish for something around the Gloucestershire area this morning though.

[AWD]

Well your post reflects exactly what i first brought up yesterday!! Say no more..

I don't know. I forgot what your post yesterday said. Be prepared to get wet with a gale blowing in your face.

[offerman]

AWD,  This is exactly what i was saying yesterday that the charts at the time suggested worst of the winds will transfer North and on this occasion i was correct (Im not often correct by the way).

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

It is rare that a storm of the ferocity hits directly to southern areas with its strongest winds, look at the stats and the majority do head toward us and then veer to Northern England /Scotland.  This is great news for Southerners and but unfortunately the flood hit victims will be receiving much more rain and my thoughts are with them , what a depressing stressful situation for those poor people. 

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm going to be incredibly controversial and declare that I don't care if we don't get any snow this winter/spring.  I'm fed up with wet and just want a lovely dry spell.  I didn't see lying snow between 1997 and 2008 so this wouldn't bother me.

 

 

  ::runs away and puts on tinfoil hat::

 

Whether it's controversial or not, I can kind of see where you're coming from and by March I usually want to leave it behind, especially by the time of the Spring Equinox. The one thing I would say however, is that a huge dumping of snow might cause all sorts of issues, but should an Easterly bring snow showers to some parts, at least that would aid the drying process. An Easterly in February isn't that unusual in a normal climate and can often turn out to be the farmer's friend, I'm led to believe.

Edited February 11, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Mapantz]

All I can say to that is good. How much have received now during February, Mapantz. I'm sitting at 65mm as I type.

Had a little downpour on the back edge, wind has suddenly vanished and I can see blue sky, very bizarre. 4mm in the end. Although I have missed the worst of the rain forecasted in the last week or so, I'm at 74.8mm for Feb, 358.4mm for the year.

[gottolovethisweather]

AWD,  This is exactly what i was saying yesterday that the charts at the time suggested worst of the winds will transfer North and on this occasion i was correct (Im not often correct by the way).

 

 

Ah, but nobody is correct until the time comes. Aside from all that, shall we play guess the next dry day game. We need a giant vacuum cleaner over this wonderful country of ours but even then, where can we dump all the excess water?

Edited February 11, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

AWD,  This is exactly what i was saying yesterday that the charts at the time suggested worst of the winds will transfer North and on this occasion i was correct (Im not often correct by the way). http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ It is rare that a storm of the ferocity hits directly to southern areas with its strongest winds, look at the stats and the majority do head toward us and then veer to Northern England /Scotland.  This is great news for Southerners and but unfortunately the flood hit victims will be receiving much more rain and my thoughts are with them , what a depressing stressful situation for those poor people.

The thing is though it doesn't matter where the worse of the winds hit, the windspeeds modelled for our region are still more than enough to cause disruption to different industries. I don't think it was in doubt that the worse windspeeds were always going to be further north, but in this thread we obviously concentrate on our region and not those blooming northerners. ;)Anyway, it will probably make fools of us all and not even happen hopefully. lol.Like you say though, the rainfall and winds we are still forecast to get are still noticeable, especially given current conditons.

[gottolovethisweather]

Had a little downpour on the back edge, wind has suddenly vanished and I can see blue sky, very bizarre. 4mm in the end. Although I have missed the worst of the rain forecasted in the last week or so, I'm at 74.8mm for Feb, 358.4mm for the year.

 

Holy Moses, that's 14 1/3 inches in old money and that's in only 42 days. I've received an annual total of 235.2mm and counting by comparison.

[Nights King]

Another lousy morning weather wise!

 

Squall feature rattled through and nearly took my greenhouse roof off I think as I could hear it howling for 10 mins.

 

National forecast looks bullish for a cm or two down to low levels tonight although could do with being a touch more south for our region so shall have to wait and see tonight.

 

Temperature and dew point falling away. 3.5c

Edited February 11, 2014 by mullender83

[Mapantz]

Holy Moses, that's 14 1/3 inches in old money and that's in only 42 days. I've received an annual total of 235.2mm and counting by comparison.

Yeah, it's not far shy of half a years rainfall to be honest, and that's only my Vantage Vue totals, it under-reads in strong winds, and we've had a lot of those lol I log my manual gauge too, so at the end of the month I'll add those daily totals up and then take an average of both.

[Nights King]

Track of Wednesdays storm has been revised further north now leaving west country out of worst area for wind

Edited February 11, 2014 by mullender83