South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 05/02/14 16z -------------->

[wimblettben]

Have I trespassed onto the wrong forum here?

What?

[Cyclonic]

Before the weather destroyed part of Compton Bay

 

And now after 

[wimblettben]

Before the weather destroyed part of Compton Bay

 

And now after 

Amazing how different the sea looks in Summer and Winter.

[karlos1983]

Not a pretty 18z spilling out from the GFS, three Nasty systems almost within 48 hours of each other and we aren't talking in the depths of fl either

[gottolovethisweather]

What?

 

The football mainly, that was what, no problem with talk about storms at all of course.

[wimblettben]

The football mainly, that was what, no problem with talk about storms at all of course.

Oh ok.

[gottolovethisweather]

Before the weather destroyed part of Compton Bay

 

And now after 

 

Ridiculous it is, but all ridiculous things (this weather) do eventually come to an end but at what cost has to be the worrying aspect. I'm sure equilibrium will arrive, perhaps sooner than we expect. Time for a lie down now and despite all the madness, I'm looking forward to seeing what unfolds as really we have no control over it all, anyhow.

 

Take care all.

Edited February 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

Ian F just mentioned the S word in a latest tweet.

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Much uncertainty on regional detail this week but Tues-Weds & later in week indicative of complex blend of heavy rain & some snow.

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Threat of any snow is especially uncertain due to position & development of low centres. More on this as f'cast detail improves...

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY CONTD However, irrespective of any wintry element (esp. higher ground), further rain remains key forecast concern in broad sense.

Edited February 9, 2014 by karlos1983

[Nights King]

Ian F just mentioned the S word in a latest tweet.

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY Threat of any snow is especially uncertain due to position & development of low centres. More on this as f'cast detail improves...

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY CONTD However, irrespective of any wintry element (esp. higher ground), further rain remains key forecast concern in broad sense.

 

Hope is rekindled  

[dancing daisy]

Unbelievable. 

 

Words cannot express how bloody awful this all is.

 

It hasn't linked properly, click the U for some awful photographs of my once lovely countryside.

Edited February 9, 2014 by dancing daisy

[Cyclonic]

Unbelievable. 

 

Words cannot express how bloody awful this all is.

 

It hasn't linked properly, click the U for some awful photographs of my once lovely countryside.

 

Certainly is awful and 1000's of ppl affected, the clean up process will be a nightmare, the cost, well i cannot begin to imagine what that will be, this will not be forgotten and many people's lives will have changed because of this dayum weather we are having at the moment.

 

Incredible photo's and thank-you for sharing with us.

[Cyclonic]

Morning peeps

 

Stats

 

988.4mb (rising 1.0mb/hr)

Rainfall daily 0.6mm (so far)

Max gust last hour 2.8mph

Humidity 85%

Temp 4.3c

Windchill 4.3c

Calm sea state

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by Cyclonic

[Iggy912]

IF YOU DIDN'T ALREADY KNOW, TREES DRINK VAST AMOUNTS OF WATER...

Due to some heavy rains, flooding this winter season is now affecting large parts of UK, with over 100 flood warnings being put out across England, Scotland, and Wales. The damage caused by the flooding can cost communities both time and money. Now, questions are being asked why this is occurring more and more often. Some say this may be attributed to the increasing space used for agriculture, which has resulted in trees and shrubs being removed to make way for man made hills and pastures for livestock to graze on.

Many affected by the floods want to know what has been done to prevent floods and what can be done to help ensure that it doesn’t occur in the future. One recent study submitted to Lord Rooker, the former Environment Minister, has proposed a new and environmentally friendly solution. This study, conducted by Simon Dixon, with the sponsorship of the Environmental Agency in the UK, has concluded that planting trees in certain sections of a river can help reduce and even totally avoid flooding. Furthermore, the planting of trees in catchments (a structure in which water is collected, especially a natural drainage area) will allow for flood waters to be soaked up by deep root systems. In the event of a flood, trees will also aid in breaking up the speed and ferociousness of the flood waters when they travel downstream.

In addition to being an environmentally conscious solution, it can also help the visual appeal for catchment areas, which is usually a large unattractive pits on the outskirts of town. It may even increase the value of land due to the reduction of flood risk, as well as help to reduce your home insurance coverage costs.

This solution isn’t immediate, unless fully grown trees are replanted. However, it will eliminate and reduce flooding and the devastating effect it can have on our lives and personal belongings in the future.

If your town is being affected by flooding, try propose this solution to your local council or get your community together and plant some trees, shrubs, bushes, etc. in the catchment areas.

Sources: BBC and the River Management Blog

[AWD]

Some very worrying FAX charts from the Met Office this morning with spells of gales/severe gales and heavy rain/showers on and off throughout the week. The 72 hour FAX below is especially stormy for some of us with a notable deep depression;

At such a short range too, it's leaving it very late for last minute improvements there.

Into the rest of the week and it's more of the same ;

Further rainbands and troughs mixed within a very volatile atmosphere with pretty much everything thrown at us from rain, thunder, sleet, snow and gales again.

With the volatile state of the environment in parts of the West Country and SW coastline currently, 50mph gusts and 20mm of rain (which on a normal day would be noting out of the ordinary) would have a higher than usual impact on the surface and cause major disruption and threat to people and structures.

Let's hope the continued improvements being shown in week 2 continue to gain momentum and the clean up can slowly begin.

[gottolovethisweather]

IF YOU DIDN'T ALREADY KNOW, TREES DRINK VAST AMOUNTS OF WATER...Due to some heavy rains, flooding this winter season is now affecting large parts of UK, with over 100 flood warnings being put out across England, Scotland, and Wales. The damage caused by the flooding can cost communities both time and money. Now, questions are being asked why this is occurring more and more often. Some say this may be attributed to the increasing space used for agriculture, which has resulted in trees and shrubs being removed to make way for man made hills and pastures for livestock to graze on.Many affected by the floods want to know what has been done to prevent floods and what can be done to help ensure that it doesn’t occur in the future. One recent study submitted to Lord Rooker, the former Environment Minister, has proposed a new and environmentally friendly solution. This study, conducted by Simon Dixon, with the sponsorship of the Environmental Agency in the UK, has concluded that planting trees in certain sections of a river can help reduce and even totally avoid flooding. Furthermore, the planting of trees in catchments (a structure in which water is collected, especially a natural drainage area) will allow for flood waters to be soaked up by deep root systems. In the event of a flood, trees will also aid in breaking up the speed and ferociousness of the flood waters when they travel downstream.In addition to being an environmentally conscious solution, it can also help the visual appeal for catchment areas, which is usually a large unattractive pits on the outskirts of town. It may even increase the value of land due to the reduction of flood risk, as well as help to reduce your home insurance coverage costs.This solution isn’t immediate, unless fully grown trees are replanted. However, it will eliminate and reduce flooding and the devastating effect it can have on our lives and personal belongings in the future.If your town is being affected by flooding, try propose this solution to your local council or get your community together and plant some trees, shrubs, bushes, etc. in the catchment areas.Sources: BBC and the River Management Blog

 

Planting Trees and afforesting the uplands instead of letting them go to pasture in almost every field would be a start for sure, I definitely agree Iggy and Thanks for that report. However I would suggest no matter how wrong the politics are on this and how wrong the original decisions not to dredge were, Mother Nature has ruled the situation here. There was very little that anyone could have done about this disastrous situation, all of course IMHO. Everybody debating this should ask themselves just how much rainfall has fallen into the river systems and the upland parts of the SW in particular, its in excess of 400mm in places, that's way in excess of 16 inches and more to come, all within the space of a few weeks. We will return to normality eventually and let's not forget this is slowly becoming a UK wide issue and always has been a global one, i.e. one extreme event after another somewhere in the world.

 

A bit of a rant from me but as the weather is in its calm phase right now, it is always a good time to reflect on what has been happening around us. Thanks AWD for your most helpful post and Nick F's post which I've copied below is another worthy of reading as to where this next week is leading us.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=5671;sess=

Edited February 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[stevofunnelcl]

Calmer day yesterday, but the wind is back this morning, with the added 'chill' punch

5c with a brisk west wind, gusting up a bit.. Brrrrrr... it's chilly

[Mapantz]

Morning! It got down to 0.5C this morning, currently 8.4C with sunny spells.

I've just took a gander at my pressure chart from the past week, last time that it hit 1000mb was almost a week ago. :lol:

Edited February 10, 2014 by Mapantz

[gottolovethisweather]

Morning! It got down to 0.5C this morning, currently 8.4C with sunny spells.

I've just took a gander at my pressure chart from the past week, last time that it hit 1000mb was almost a week ago.

IMG_20140210_115257.JPG

 

Not that I wish to blow my own trumpet but do you remember this posting from the 5th, just shows how accurate the GFS has been for once.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79252-atlantic-storms-february-2014/?p=2918287

 

One more week to go of this madness, then.

Edited February 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cyclonic]

Really am not liking the models for this week.

Is mother nature saving the very best till last, think she could very well be

So i think this is picture sums up how i am feeling LOL

 

[Sainsbo]

Really am not liking the models for this week.

Is mother nature saving the very best till last, think she could very well be

So i think this is picture sums up how i am feeling LOL

 

 

 

Yep, the charts for Wednesday/Thursday are very worrying to say the least. Stay safe everyone!

[gottolovethisweather]

I perhaps shouldn't be copying this word for word as its credited to Nick F. However, this is a rather sobering alert coming out of netweather towers, please do have a read.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=7;sess=f2f95321e0ccfe9902bc95a7ff6ded62

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

More rain this week to increase flooding, plus risk of severe gales, snow and ice.

 

Issued on 10/02/2014 at 12:08

Valid From: 10/02/2014 at 11:00 until 15/02/2014 at 23:59

 

Regions affected:
ScotlandNorthern IrelandNorthern EnglandWalesMidlandsEast AngliaSouthern England

 

Areas affected in detail:
Whole of the UK

 

Severity level:

Level 5

 

Weather type:
Heavy Rain, Severe Gales, Snow and Ice

 

Alert risk period:
11/02/14 00:00 until 15/02/14 23:59

 

Alert details:

Tuesday

 

An occluded frontal system will sweep east across all areas during Tuesday, bringing a spell of rain and snow across northern and western areas during the morning and rain across the southeast and East Anglia early afternoon . 10-20mm of rain can be expected widely, with 20-30mm possible across Scotland, west Wales and SW England.

The rain will turn to sleet and snow across on the back edge across N. Ireland, Scotland, northern England, north Midlands, central and northern Wales , even to lower levels, as colder air moves in from the west. Wintry showers will follow the frontal system in the cold westerly flow, bringing further, perhaps significant snow across Ireland, northern and western Britain. Settling snow will be mostly confined above 150-300m, where we could see 5-10cm, though temporary slushy accumulations could occur at lower elevations.

Winds will not be too much of an issue, though we could see southerly winds gust to 40-50mph ahead of the frontal system before winds veer westerly.

 

Wednesday

 

A deep depression will track northeast across Ireland, central or northern Britain during Wednesday, with severe gales or storm force winds developing across England and Wales, with gusts of 60-70mph possible inland, perhaps 70-80mph along southern and western coasts and isolated gusts of more than 80mph across SW Britain.

 

Heavy rain will accompany this system, bringing a further 20-30mm in places and more over higher ground. Snow rather than rain is likely across higher ground of northern Britain, bringing some significant falls of snow, especially across the Scottish mountains.

 

Friday and Saturday

 

Another Atlantic low pressure system threatens to move northeast across southern/central Britain late on Friday and through Saturday. There is uncertainty over the track and depth of this low, but it may bringing further heavy rain accompanied by severe gales or storm force winds to southern Britain in particular.

Hazards this week

With already very high river levels across flood warned areas, 40-60mm of rain indicated over the next 5-6 days is likely to raise river levels even further during the week, bringing the potential for serious issues with flooding to properties and travel disruption. Check the Environment Agency website for Flood Warnings in your area.

Severe gales or storm force winds this week will bring the risk of further coastal flooding during high tides, structural damage, toppling of trees due to weakening of the root system in the saturated ground and also travel disruption.

Snow and ice will be an issue Tuesday and Wednesday over higher routes of northern Britain, with a risk of risk of blizzard conditions and drifting of snow at times. An increased risk of avalanches is possible in the Scottish mountains

Confidence:
80%

 

Issued by Nick Finnis for Netweather.tv

Edited February 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cyclonic]

I perhaps shouldn't be copying this word for word as its credited to Nick F. However, this is a rather sobering alert coming out of netweather towers, please do have a read.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

More rain this week to increase flooding, plus risk of severe gales, snow and ice.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2014 by gottolovethisweather
oops! better repost my friend.

[egret]

Some very worrying FAX charts from the Met Office this morning with spells of gales/severe gales and heavy rain/showers on and off throughout the week. The 72 hour FAX below is especially stormy for some of us with a notable deep depression;

image.jpg

At such a short range too, it's leaving it very late for last minute improvements there.

Into the rest of the week and it's more of the same ;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Further rainbands and troughs mixed within a very volatile atmosphere with pretty much everything thrown at us from rain, thunder, sleet, snow and gales again.

With the volatile state of the environment in parts of the West Country and SW coastline currently, 50mph gusts and 20mm of rain (which on a normal day would be noting out of the ordinary) would have a higher than usual impact on the surface and cause major disruption and threat to people and structures.

Let's hope the continued improvements being shown in week 2 continue to gain momentum and the clean up can slowly begin.

Interestingly the Meto have just updated their severe weather alerts. Primarily a rain warning 'and gusty winds' for SW on Wednesday and no real warnings for further North. Strange when the fax charts have been showing a deep low.

[Cyclonic]

Huh, where did my post go, i got gremlins inside my PC

Helpp!! lol

 

Dayum weather, grrrrr

 

Now where's my ticket to the moon gone..

 

GLTW you better not off stolen it.

 

 

Taaadaaa

 

Im outta hereeee, so long fella weather hobbiest..LOL

Edited February 10, 2014 by Cyclonic

[Andy Bown]

On the whole it's a rare lovely day with plenty of sunshine, a gentle breeze and this following on from an equally rare frosty/misty start to the day. However there was a 15 minute downpour mid morning as a trough moved East and another sharp shower recently, so there simply cannot be a dry day it seems!!